新时期国土综合整治分类体系初探

研究目的:按照"自上而下"思路,借鉴人地关系思想,构建国土综合整治内涵解析框架,提出国土综合整治分类体系,探讨分类体系的规划衔接与落实途径。研究方法:文献分析法、理论分析法、对比分析法。研究结果:(1)根据国土综合整治的多层次性,提出了从内涵解析到广义国土综合整治分类到新时期国土综合整治分类的分类体系构建思路;(2)按照"空间—系统—途径"逻辑,依据尺度性、独立性、综合性、稳定性、开放性等原则提出了广义国土综合整治分类框架;(3)通过梳理国土空间相关规划中国土综合整治的目标、类型与定位,结合当前管理制度和国土空间规划定位,构建了包括5个大类、11个亚类和23个小类的国土综合整治分类体系,提出了不同类型的整治导向和参考指标,分析了分类体系的落实途径。研究结论:新时期国土综合整治分类体系构建应以内涵解析为基础,以行业管理要求和国土空间规划体系定位为分类依据,体现整治对象和目标的综合性、分类框架的系统性与动态性以及分类结果的可实践性。     

Specification testing for regression models with dependent data

We examine a consistent test for the correct specification of a regression function with dependent data. The test is based on the supremum of the difference between the parametric and nonparametric estimates of the regression model. Rather surprisingly, the behaviour of the test depends on whether the regressors are deterministic or stochastic. In the former situation, the normalization constants necessary to obtain the limiting Gumbel distribution are data dependent and difficult to estimate, so it may be difficult to obtain valid critical values, whereas, in the latter, the asymptotic distribution may not be even known. Because of that, under very mild regularity conditions, we describe a bootstrap analogue for the test, showing its asymptotic validity and finite sample behaviour in a small Monte-Carlo experiment.     

Granger因果关系检验应用中的若干问题

分析了实践中应用Granger因果关系检验存在的一些问题,如信息遗漏,变量变换改变因果关系的性质、变量单整性对检验程序的影响以及检验模型的选择等,并提出在线性投影上有初步证据的因果概念。进而,应用单整变量之间Granger因果关系的一般检验程序对1978~2013年我国货币供给量与价格水平、产出之间的Granger因果性重新进行检验。     

Making effective pricing decisions

Pricing is one of the most complex decisions facing any company. Along with a lack of academic interest (especially among marketing academics) in the field of pricing, this complexity has contributed to the dominance of simplified, cost-based formulas when levying prices. This article offers an alternative approach based on the concept of contribution margin and the need to take into consideration only those costs that are related directly to a specific pricing decision, an approach that is especially useful when a company decides to change its prices. Moreover, an empirical study regarding the practical use of this approach is also presented.     

一种多输入队ATM交换结构

本文提出一种多输入排队ＡＴＭ交换结构和相应的输出冲突解决方法，它可以使交换网络避免输入队固有的排头阻塞，从而使网络在不增加运行速率的情况下，可达到输出排队的性能。文中介绍了冲突解决办法及其实现技术，说明它可方便地在高速网中实现。     

探究第三产业占比对人力资本积累的影响--基于我国2005年-2011年省级面板数据的实证检验

我国正处于产业结构转型的关键时期,一二产业逐渐向第三产业转移。以往研究大多落脚于人力资本对产业结构的影响,而忽略了由于产业转型带来的对高技术人才的需求推动了人力资本的积累。作者认为,产业结构的优化将有助于人力资本的积累,同时,文化消费、教育投入等因素也会影响到人力资本。本文使用2005-2011年,我国31个省份的面板数据,建立了多元线性回归模型,运用工具变量的方法,以金融发展状况作为第三产业占比的工具变量,进行实证研究。在控制了年份和省份的固定效应后,我们发现第三产业占比对人均人力资本有显著的正向影响,产业结构向第三产业转移有利于人力资本积累。在此基础上,我们提出了若干建议来推动产业结构的优化。     

新巴塞尔协议监管模式与监管理念的制度缺陷——美国金融危机的金融法反思

新巴塞尔协议在此次金融危机中暴露出的制度缺陷主要是机构监管模式的失效和微观审理监管理念的不足。在金融创新背景下传统的机构监管模式已不再适应有效监管的需要，微观审慎监管理念也无法有效地防范系统风险的爆发，建立功能监管模式、确立宏观审慎监管理念是防范系统风险的必然要求。     

Site selection to test an integrated approach to agricultural research for development: combining expert knowledge and participatory Geographic Information System methods

The sub-Saharan Africa challenge programme is designed to address the problems of failures of agricultural markets, inappropriate policies and natural resource degradation, that contribute to the continuing deterioration of livelihoods and food security in the region. It is seeking to do this by redefining the roles of scientists and farmers through collaborative learning processes, addressing questions about the level, timing, type and formof participation, as well as themost effective approaches andmethods to foster them. The research domains of the programme deal with sustainable intensification of smallholder agriculture, the sustainable management of natural resources, the development of efficient markets, and the promotion of enabling policies. One question that was addressed in designing the initiative was deciding where to work so as to maximize the chances of successful testing of this new approach, so that it would lead to significant reductions of rural poverty. A participatory process was put in place to design a framework to accomplish this site selection, and then to apply it in west, east and southern Africa. A mixture of spatial data analysis and expert knowledge on spatial and non-spatial factors was used, and one primary site in each region was identified to form the basis for the next phase of the challenge programme. Several lessons were learnt from the process, including the importance of adapting themethods to actual conditions, the increased utility of targetting when the quantitative and the qualitative are freely combined, and the continued need for baseline spatial and non-spatial data to improve the targeting of research in the future that is designed to alleviate poverty in sub-Saharan Africa.     

A framework to measure integrated risk

A framework underlying various models that measure the credit risk of a portfolio is extended in this paper to allow the integration of credit risk with a range of market risks using Monte Carlo simulation. A structural model is proposed that allows interest rates to be stochastic and provides closed-form expressions for the market value of a firm's equity and its probability of default. This model is embedded within the integrated framework and the general approach illustrated by measuring the risk of a foreign exchange forward when there is a significant probability of default by the counterparty. For this example moving from a market risk calculation to an integrated risk calculation reduces the expected future value of the instrument by an amount that could not be calculated using the common pre-settlement exposure technique for estimating the credit risk of a derivative.