基于GONE理论的LK公司舞弊动因分析与审计风险防范

继浑水发布做空报告后,LK公司于2020年4月自曝2019年年度审计期间发现相关业务数据巨额造假,引起社会广泛关注.企业战略,尤其是商业模式,已经成为管理层产生财务报表层次重大错报风险的重要诱因.文章以GONE理论作为工具来识别和预判财务舞弊的倾向和风险,解释了企业管理层进行财务舞弊的动因.做空机构基于企业战略层面的潜在风险,有针对性地采取手段并取得了有力证据.注册会计师行业应思考如何发挥职业判断在防范审计风险中的作用,尤其要克服认知偏差对保持职业怀疑的影响,同时应借鉴并改进审计程序,以有效降低审计风险.     

基于战略视角的财务状况质量分析——以SY重工为例

了解和掌握企业的整体状况及发展质量是利益相关者保护其权益的关键,也是市场经济健康发展的必然要求.财务数据一方面能够体现企业进行的经济业务活动,另一方面又能检验企业经济活动的执行情况.因此,有效分析企业财务状况质量对综合评价企业的质量具有重要意义.文章从战略视角出发,参考SY重工2019年财务报告数据,对其发展战略及管理质量进行了评价.     

Are gold,USD, and Bitcoin hedge or safe haven against stock? The implication for risk management

This study investigates whether gold, USD, and Bitcoin are hedge and safe haven assets against stock and if they are useful in diversifying downside risk for international stock markets. We propose a combined GO-GARCH-EVT-copula approach to examine the hedge and safe haven properties of gold, USD, and Bitcoin. We then examine the attractiveness of these assets in reducing stock portfolio risk by using downside risk measures estimated by the proposed approach and other competing models. We also evaluate the relative performance of the proposed model in reducing downside risk with the competing models. The findings of the study indicate that the USD is the most valuable hedge and safe haven asset closely followed by gold, while Bitcoin is the least valuable. It is also observed that the proposed combined approach performs best in reducing the portfolio downside risk. The findings of this study are of significance for portfolio managers and individual investors who wish to protect the portfolio value during market turmoil.     

A Bayesian approach for more reliable tail risk forecasts

This paper demonstrates that existing quantile regression models used for jointly forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are sensitive to initial conditions. Given the importance of these measures in financial systems, this sensitivity is a critical issue. A new Bayesian quantile regression approach is proposed for estimating joint VaR and ES models. By treating the initial values as unknown parameters, sensitivity issues can be dealt with. Furthermore, new additive-type models are developed for the ES component that are more robust to initial conditions. A novel approach using the open-faced sandwich (OFS) method is proposed which improves uncertainty quantification in risk forecasts. Simulation and empirical results highlight the improvements in risk forecasts ensuing from the proposed methods.     

Labor unemployment risk and firm risk

This paper examines the effect of labor unemployment risk on firm risk. Using unemployment insurance benefits as a proxy for unemployment risk, we find an economically significant positive relation between unemployment risk and firm risk. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms that are more labor-intensive, have a higher layoff propensity and are more financially constrained. While existing literature that employs corporate policy measures such as debt and cash holdings suggests an opposite relationship, our paper presents evidence that the effects stemming from earnings management, earnings quality and reporting quality appear to dominate.     

董事责任制度重构： 精准问责、合理容错、宽容失败——以弘扬企业家精神为视角

基于权力（利）、义务、利益、责任与风险相匹配的基本逻辑,新《公司法》既要健全董监高的差异化公平问责规范体系,也要建立人性化合理减免责任制度。董监高问责能力取决于其职位的含权量、含金量、实际控制力与影响力,也取决于所在公司治理实况。要重点锁定并严惩关键少数者,严格区别独董与内部执行董事的法律角色。董监高责任应以过错责任为主、严格责任为例外。为精准识别董监高过错,建议采取法商、德商、智商、情商合一的理性人标准。要坚持责任自负为主、连带责任为辅。连带责任规范要保持统一化与谦抑化,赋予董监高在承担连带责任后的法定追偿权。要坚持有限责任为主、无限责任为辅。董监高对第三人不负责任为原则,负责为例外。建议精准甄别董监高个人责任与公司法人责任。章程或公司决议对法定代表人代表权的限制只要登记、备案或公示,即可对抗相对人。建议导入商事判断规则,允许公司自主豁免或减轻董监高责任,要求董监高自担最低责任限额,导入董监高责任保险制度。董监高问责机制要与股权激励相匹配。     

均衡性原则之“权重公式”的反思与重构——一个法经济学的分析视角

为避免均衡性原则适用的模糊抽象,具体化成为学界共识,量化方法颇受关注。阿列克西设计的“权重公式Wij”的影响力较大,发挥着定序量化分析的功能,但公式的适用范围受限及构成要素的赋值不当,降低了其应用价值。解决问题的关键在于重构“权重公式”的适用框架,法经济学的分析方法能强化公式的适用能力,使量化过程更具客观性。在以利益为核心的成本收益分析框架下,“权利”作为公式的适用对象,经必要变量的逻辑改进,“权利”的保护强度作为公式的构成要素;经济学上的价值及“权利”的损害导向确立公式的量化基础,继而“权利”能实现货币等价或价值评估。尤其基于经济学的替代理论,“权利”之间构成了新的权衡模型：“权衡公式Bij。”在“权衡公式”的结果判定上,Bij≥1,手段不符合均衡性,不应改变“初始状态”下“权利”的比例关系;Bij＜1,手段符合均衡性,且尽力选择使Bij值更小之手段。“权衡公式”兼具体系化与精细化分析能力,保持了严密结构和强操作性,为更普遍的实践应用提供新思路。在“权衡公式”与成本收益分析的关系上,它是一种融合成本收益分析的均衡性判断。     

元代和买法律制度考论

和买,泛指官府向民间购买物品的行为。其核心便是“和”,即蕴含着自愿交易、买卖的官民双方地位平等、官府购买民间物品应以货币的形式支付对价等含义。为了规范和买行为和保障和买秩序,元继于宋,确立起了一整套包括均平摊派、时估、法定程序、和买钱货两清的支付原则、税课管理制度等在内的和买法律制度体系。然而,和买法律制度在“商品化/赋税化”“和/不和”的博弈中,最终滑向了政府主导、赋税化的境地,而随意的摊派与吏治的败坏在其中起到了催化剂的作用。和买法律制度只能在一定程度上起到减缓其由“和”向“不和”的赋税化性质蜕化的作用。     

Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

中国工业技术进步的百年探索：历程、经验与展望 ——透视中国共产党百年奋斗历程

一百年来中国工业技术进步经历了从落后到追赶再到部分领先的过程。新中国成立后,中国工业生产力迅速提升,技术进步显著,高新技术及有关产业快速发展。其最重要的经验在于：第一,从人的角度出发,通过科教兴国战略积累了大量人力资本基础,通过优化生产关系充分调动了劳动者推动技术进步的积极性。第二,有效发挥了中国共产党领导下中国特色社会主义制度的优越性,通过顶层设计和五年规划引导推动技术进步的阶段目标和路线,利用举国体制集中攻关关键核心技术。第三,充分学习和借鉴其他国家的先进技术。当前,中国工业技术还面临着关键领域创新能力不强、工业企业的创新动力仍待激发、部分发达国家对中国进行技术封锁的威胁加大等问题。需要继续发挥举国体制优势,加快推进关键核心技术的攻关,进一步扩大高质量对外开放以提升工业技术进步的质量,多管齐下进一步激发企业的创新活力。