Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model*

In this paper we develop a vintage model to gain a better understanding of the semiconductor industry and its role in recent U.S. productivity gains. Unlike previous work, in our model the observed price declines of individual chips are driven by the introduction of better vintages rather than by learning economies. Dominated chips, nonetheless, continue to be produced, for a time, due to sunk investments in chip‐specific production equipment. The model lends partial support to Jorgenson's hypothesis that an exogenous increase in Moore's Law could have generated the more rapid price declines, and faster productivity growth, seen after 1995.     

Uncertainty in the Austrian Theory of Capital

This paper is based on the traditional Austrian Theory of Capital which deals with expected values of future returns of investments over various periods of time. The longer the time period that elapses between the beginning of a production process and its end, the higher the (expected) productivity must be due to positive time preferences of individuals. This paper focuses on the uncertainty of future returns and on uncertainty preferences, instead. Based on the Hayekian idea of the dispersion of knowledge in society, it will be shown that there is a systematic relationship between the structure of capital and uncertainty. This result will be derived for a production process characterized by complete vertical integration and one which is not completely vertically integrated. The distinction between these two settings is crucial, if one accepts the distinction between an individual and a social period of production and the planning horizon which are introduced in this paper.     

国家助学贷款的风险与防范

国家助学贷款是一个政治、福利、教育、金融概念的混合体。本文主要从国家助学贷款发放的现状、存在的问题人手，提出了应加强维护信用制度的法律建设；创建良好的社会信用环境；改进管理制度与操作模式；加强各部门的协调与沟通等防范措施。     

Regulating Banks through Market Discipline: A Survey of the Issues

Abstract.  The interest in the application of market discipline to regulate the financial industry has boomed recently due to the proposed New Capital Accord. This paper reviews the potential role market discipline can play in financial regulation. We start with a discussion of the rationale for financial regulation and with a brief history of the current regulatory mechanisms. Next, a definition of market discipline as a regulatory mechanism is advanced. We evaluate the disciplining power various market participants have. Finally, we argue that more external risk management disclosure is a condition sine qua non in order to enable market discipline as a regulatory mechanism. In this respect, the Basle Committee has taken the right approach.     

文化是生产力发服的内在动力

随着人类社会的发展,社会的文明程度越来越高,人们对文化的认识也越来越深刻.特别是文化与生产力之间的关系引起了人们的广泛关注.文化对生产力发展起着巨大的推动作用.     

人民银行员工激励机制设计的进化博弈分析

博弈理论是当代主流经济学发展最迅速和影响最大的分支学科之一。其中,进化博弈理论由于引入了“进化稳定策略”（ESS）的概念,有效解决了博弈双方有限理性的现实问题,在解释经济管理现象时更具说服力和生命力。本文结合人民银行实际,通过构建进化博弈理论的复制动态模型,试述人民银行员工激励路径的选择及机制设计的有关问题。     

Competitive effects of Basel II on US bank credit card lending

We analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed Basel II capital regulations on US bank credit card lending. We find that bank issuers operating under Basel II will face higher regulatory capital minimums than Basel I banks, with differences due to the way the two regulations treat reserves and gain-on-sale of securitized assets. During periods of normal economic conditions, this is not likely to have a competitive effect; however, during periods of substantial stress in credit card portfolios, Basel II banks could face a significant competitive disadvantage relative to Basel I banks and nonbank issuers.     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

论建国以来中国共产党的农业生产力发展观

建国以来,党的农业生产力发展观经历了探索、调整和完善的过程。第一代领导集体的农业生产力发展观偏重于农业制度的改革,进行了以集体组织下改革农业技术的实践,因忽视农民积极性和生产力系统的协调性,其实践效果差。第二、三代领导集体改变了党对农业的领导方式,高度重视农民积极性和生产力系统的协同性,形成了包括发挥农民积极性、现代工程和生物技术与传统农业技术相结合、市场农业和尊重自然规律为内容的农业生产力发展观。这是中国当代农业生产力发展的成功经验,也是党对传统农业重视天地人协调经验的继承。