我国主权财富基金在国际资本运作中面临的挑战及对策分析

随着我国外汇储备规模不断扩大,设立主权财富基金成为我国政府寻求积极外汇管理的一种重要方式,同时也牵涉到诸多复杂的政治经济问题。2007年9月成立的中国投资责任有限公司标志着我国主权财富基金的成立,但成立之初公司定位尚不明确,同时面临着全球范围内的投资策略选择及西方国家的"主权基金威胁论"等诸多挑战。本文从国际经济和国际政治的双重角度讨论了我国主权财富基金在当前国际关系格局中面临的挑战,并提出定位于商业化和市场化运作、坚持多元化投资策略、坚持经济收益和政治收益的统一、广募贤才与投资外包并施、多拳出击打消国际政治阻力等发展对策。     

Overseas equity analysis by UK analysts and fund managers

This paper examines how UK-based analysts and fund managers cope with international differences in financial reporting systems when analysing overseas equities. This subject has become increasingly important given the internationalisation and institutionalisation of equity markets. Our results indicate that there is a substantial reliance on sources other than the annual report by both groups when analysing overseas companies. We also find considerable variation in the approach to analysing equities internationally. In particular, we find evidence that there is greater reliance on alternative sources to accounting information (such as other foreign analysts) in countries characterised as having weak equity markets. Finally, we examine the coping mechanisms that analysts and fund managers employ when analysing overseas securities, including reliance on locally based analysts, use of non-accounting information, use of more familiar accounting standards and re-stating accounts to a more familiar basis.     

Central Bank Currency Swaps and the International Monetary System

Central bank currency swaps have emerged as a de facto key feature of the international monetary system, with the US Federal Reserve having extensive recourse to them during the financial crisis, and their exploitation by the People’s Bank of China to help internationalizing the renminbi. Combined with the unlimited and exclusive power of central banks to create money these swaps can match the volatility of international capital flows. However, they have so far not been associated with conditionality, and are more precarious than alternative institutional arrangements. Strictly framing the discretionary use of this tool seems unrealistic but an internationally agreed set of principles would enable a fairer and perhaps more efficient exploitation of this instrument.     

Does High Stock Price Synchronicity Always Hurt Mutual Fund Industry? Sentiment Matters

Investors have agreed that high synchronicity of stock returns adversely influences professional funds' profitability. However, different market conditions where high synchronicity exists may have different effects on this relationship. This study incorporates aggregate investor sentiment as a market condition in the equation to explore whether and when the negative association between synchronicity and fund performance holds. The authors use a sample of actively managed U.S. equity mutual funds from 2000 to 2014 and employ a portfolio of 11 passively managed funds as the benchmark to measure fund performance and fund management skill. They find empirical evidence that synchronicity negatively impacts mutual funds' profitability when the investor sentiment is low. This negative relationship disappears in high-sentiment periods. They also find that in both low- and high-sentiment states, fund managers with superior stock selection skill make more profits from high synchronicity than the average.     

我国基金投资者存在处置效应吗?——基于国内某大型开放式基金交易的研究

以基金为代表的机构投资者队伍在我国资本市场发挥着日益重要的作用,但有关基金投资者行为的研究还比较缺乏。本文利用国内某大型基金管理公司提供的基金投资者交易数据,运用生存模型研究了我国基金投资者的处置效应。实证结果显示我国基金投资者表现出明显的处置效应,同时,我们还发现男性投资者和投资经验丰富的投资者相对表现出较低程度的处置效应。进一步的研究发现投资者的处置效应是非理性的,它减少了基金投资者的投资收益。     

证券投资基金和保险资金对股票市场影响的实证分析

本文利用上海证券交易所于2007年7月30日至2008年12月31日期间公布的Topview数据,对证券投资基金、保险资金的交易行为进行了实证分析,结果发现证券投资基金的交易行为是上证180指数(及指数的自然对数和对数收益率)变化的单向Granger原因,而上证180指数与保险资金交易行为之间不存在Granger因果关系。通过对相关变量的模型分析,我们发现在样本期间证券投资基金的交易行为对上证180指数(取对数)及其对数收益率的均值产生了微弱的正向影响,但没有对上证180指数(取对数)及其对数收益率的波动性(以残差或条件方差衡量)产生统计上显著的影响。     

投资组合构建与调整的合理性及其对基金绩效的影响

从理论推论看,投资组合构建与调整的合理性越高,投资绩效就可能越好。为此,本文构建了衡量组合合理性高低的指标,并采用Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验法、Kruskal-Wallis检验法、基于Wilcoxon秩检验的多重比较法等方法,实证研究我国股票型基金投资组合的合理性对基金绩效的影响。研究结果一方面支持了理论推论的正确性,另一方面也印证了本文所建立的组合合理性指标的可取性。同时论文发现,在牛市熊市的不同情况下,基金组合构建的合理性及其对继续的影响存在差异。论文据此提出了相关的建议和启示。     

我国证券投资基金羊群行为的实证研究

论文通过LSV及其修正模型,运用2003年第一季度到2009年第四季度我国开放式证券投资基金的季度投资组合数据,对我国证券投资基金羊群行为进行了实证分析,发现我国存在较明显的羊群行为,基金卖出羊群一般明显大于买入羊群,且羊群行为在第2季度最明显。     

我国社保基金持股偏好研究

社保基金在证券市场上的投资表现会直接影响其运行的稳定性,由于其资金来源的特殊性,社保基金对于选择投资对象有没有明显的偏好呢？本文利用2008—2018年我国A股上市公司的数据,研究社保基金的持股偏好。研究表明,社保基金在进行投资时对于经营业绩好、风险性低、股权集中度高、估值偏低的股票具有明显的偏好。进一步研究发现,与保险公司偏好股权集中度低的股票、公募基金偏好流动性高的股票相比,社保基金更偏好股权集中度高的股票,而对于流动性高的股票并没有明显的偏好。     

封闭式证券投资基金的定价探讨与应用

封闭式证券投资基金由于在存续期内不能赎回,因此造成市场价格的确定和开放式基金有很大不同,其市场交易价格往往是围绕基金净值溢价或折价交易的。本文通过分析封闭式基金的定价特点,推导出内在价值确定的基本理论方法,并选择基金景宏作为定价对象对其现阶段的内在价值进行测算。