A LITERATURE SURVEY ON PROPOSED AFRICAN MONETARY UNIONS

This study provides a survey of recent advances in the literature on proposed African monetary unions. The survey comprises about 70 empirical papers published during the past 15 years. Four main strands are discussed individually and collectively. They comprise the proposed: (i) West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), (ii) East African Monetary Union (EAMU), (iii) Southern African Monetary Union (SAMU) and (iv) African Monetary Union (AMU). We observe a number of issues with establishing the feasibility and/or desirability of potential monetary unions, inter alia, they are variations in: choice of variables, empirical strategies, sampled countries and considered periodicities. We address this ambiguity by reviewing studies with scenarios that are consistent with Hegelian dialectics and establish selective expansion as the predominant mode of monetary integration. Some proponents make cases for strong pegs and institutions as viable alternatives to currency unions. Using cluster analysis, disaggregating panels into sub-samples and distinguishing shocks from responses in the examination of business cycle synchronisation provide more subtle policy implications. We caution that for inquiries using the same theoretical underpinnings, variables and methods just by modifying the scope/context and periodicity may only contribute to increasing the number of conflicting findings. Authors should place more emphasis on new perspectives and approaches based on caveats of, and lessons from the European Monetary Union (EMU) and CFA zones.     

Monetary policy in open economies: Practical perspectives for pragmatic central bankers

This paper reviews and interprets some of the key policy implications that flow from a class of DSGE models for optimal monetary policy in the open economy. The framework suggests that good macroeconomic outcomes in open economies are possible by focusing inflation targeting that is implemented by a Taylor type rule, a rule that in equilibrium is reflected in the exchange rate as an asset price. Optimal monetary policy will not be able deliver a stationary (‘stable’) nominal exchange rate – let alone a fixed exchange rate or one that remains inside a target zone – because, absent a commitment device, optimal monetary can’t deliver a stationary domestic price level. Another feature in the data for inflation targeting countries that is consistent with monetary policy via Taylor type rule is that it will tend push the nominal exchange rate in the opposite direction from PPP in response to an ‘inflation’ shock—the ‘bad news god news’ result of Clarida and Waldman (2008. Is Bad News about Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate. In: John Campbell, (Ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, Chicago: University of Chicago Press), Clarida and Waldman (2014. Bad News About Inflation is Good News for the Nominal Exchange Rate Under Optimal Monetary Policy: DSGE Theory and a Decade of Empirical Evidence). This is so even though in the long run of these models the nominal exchange rate must in expectation obey PPP.     

Asset price targeting in an open economy with cognitive limitations: The best for macroeconomic and financial stability?

The choices of policy targets and the formation of agent expectations have been critical issues addressed by monetary policy management since the financial crisis of 2008. This paper evaluates macroeconomic stability in a new Keynesian open economy in which agents experience both cognitive limitations and asset market volatility. The (im)perfect credibility of various monetary policies (e.g., a Taylor-type rule with- or without asset price targeting, strict domestic inflation targeting, strict CPI inflation targeting, and exchange rate peg) may lead agents to react according to their expectation rules, and thus create various degrees of booms and busts in output and inflation. Simulations confirm that a Taylor-type CPI inflation targeting including an asset price target is the best choice. In contrast, the business cycles induced by Keynesian “animal spirits” are enhanced by strict inflation targeting. Furthermore, a credible exchange rate pegging system with an international reserve pooling arrangement can improve social welfare and stability in an open economy, even though its absolute value of the loss function is slightly lower than a Taylor-type CPI inflation targeting including an asset price target.     

Sunk costs and travel cancellation: Focusing on temporal cost

Tourism products differ from ordinary retail products in terms of the spatial and temporal separation between the purchase and experiencing the product. Despite its importance, temporal separation has not drawn much attention in tourism research. The main objective of this study is to understand the effects of temporal sunk costs on potential travelers' cancellation intentions, in addition to monetary sunk costs. The results of this study suggested the possibility that temporal costs can be converted into monetary costs, but the conversion relationship may not be linear. This study also indicated that travelers' intentions to cancel a travel product decreased as the temporal and monetary sunk costs increased. Further, prior experience moderated the relationship when temporal sunk costs were involved, suggesting that repeat visitors' intentions to cancel their reservations are more influenced by temporal sunk costs than first-time visitors. Further discussion and implications are provided in the main body of this paper.     

The evolution of the monetary transmission channels in Turkey: evidence from a TVP-VAR model

This article investigates the evolution of the monetary transmission mechanisms in Turkey for the period from January 1986 to December 2016. To this aim, the impacts of monetary variables on the prices and economic activity are investigated with a time-varying vector autoregressive model based on. The evidences from the time-varying responses indicate that the adoption of inflation targeting policy has markedly affected the functioning of transmission channels. The results also suggest that local and global financial crises may magnify the impact of monetary policy shocks on the overall economy.     

Progress in indicators to assess agricultural landscape valuation: how and what is measured at different levels of governance

Landscape is defined by the European Landscape Convention as “an area perceived by people, whose character is the result of the action and interaction of natural and/or human factors”. Many efforts have been devoted in addressing the core concepts on which this definition roots: perception and interaction of men and nature, but when coming to large (continental) scale assessments, the latter prevail on the former.This paper aims at presenting a framework for a measurable landscape awareness indicator as a key link to the public demand for a specific type of landscape: the agricultural landscape. This is a necessary effort to complement more physically based assessments, which include as well the impact of human activities on landscapes.The analysis is carried out at different levels of governance: EU and regional, using an example from the Alentejo region in Portugal and EU wide databases, and addresses conceptual and practical questions: what type of societal landscape awareness can be monitored and by whom (e.g., individuals, specific social groups, society as a whole); what are the landscape dimensions that should be assessed; what are the limitations imposed by data-related constraints. By applying the methodology to build composite indicators to map landscape societal awareness, the paper shows the regional and local meaning of indicator approaches developed at European level, presents developments for downscaling to regional level, while introducing the social component to support sound policy development for European rural landscapes.     

基于人力资本价值链理论的中国城市国际人才集聚研究

城市国际人才争夺战由来已久并不断升级，但针对中国城市国际人才集聚水平、影响因素和差异化政策供给的研究鲜见。以“国际人才集聚指数-国际人才集聚影响因素-国际人才集聚政策”为研究主线，以中国36个主要城市为研究对象，创新性地通过构建人力资本“投入-过程-产出”价值链理论模型进行实证研究，结果表明：中国城市国际人才集聚指数排名分为3个差异显著的层级。其中，第二和第三层级之间无较大差距，但与由北京、上海组成的第一层级相比大幅落后。中国城市国际人才集聚影响因素分化明显，第一类城市的主要影响因素为全球城市品牌文化；第二类城市为创新型经济发展；第三类为外资传统工商业企业和产业集聚。对应地，中国城市国际人才集聚政策供给围绕外资传统工商业国际人才集聚、高端生产性服务业国际人才集聚、多样性和包容性国际人才文化氛围营造存在三大差异化选择。首次构建人力资本“投入-过程-产出”价值链模型，为从机理上深入探索中国各类城市国际人才集聚模式及提升路径奠定了基础。     

科技政策对国家高新区创新驱动发展的影响路径——一个定性比较分析

基于中国内地30个省（市、自治区）政策文本，运用定性比较分析方法（QCA）进行国家级高新区科技政策研究，对不同政策类型的综合影响路径进行分析。研究发现，存在4种条件变量的组合影响路径：资源投入型路径、资源协作型路径、内敛规制型路径和外向规制型路径。人力资源政策和财政优惠政策在组合路径中具有导向作用，创新平台政策和组织制度政策是影响高新区创新驱动力的内部保障性条件，外部投入型政策与内部规制型政策具有政策互补性，对制度性政策的倾斜往往会产生更显著的驱动效应。     

农户视角下的面源污染防治政策梳理及完善策略

在供给侧结构性改革背景下,政策是进行面源污染防治的有效工具。市场经济环境下,农户的行为逻辑受多元因素影响。政策作为影响第一产业发展的关键要素,对农户具有制约、引导、激励和调节作用。与此同时,农户也对政策的推行效果具有深刻的影响。本文在进行面源污染防治政策演进分析时,尝试从经济激励引导型、命令控制型以及协同辅助型等不同政策类型入手,重视经济激励和制度激励的作用,收紧面源污染防控的监管口径,建立差别化的污染治理衡量机制,并重视技术推广在污染防控中的作用。提高农户积极性,提升农户对政策的反馈效果,最终提高农户对面源污染防治政策的遵循水平,提升面源污染防治效果。