初创战略导向对新创企业存活率的影响机制

新创企业初创阶段的战略导向对其未来存续具有持久影响,但具体影响机理有待论证。采用STROBE六维划分法,连续4年对D&B数据库中的抽样企业进行调研与“健康检查”,基于523家美国新创企业数据, 剖析6种初创战略导向对新创企业存活率的差异化影响机理。结果表明：竞争企图性战略持续消耗组织资源从而增加失败风险;分析性战略提升组织决策质量从而降低失败风险;防御性战略使组织积极运用科学管理方法与技术工具从而增加生存机会;前瞻性战略对新创企业存续没有显著影响;先动性战略推动组织创新从而开拓更佳发展前景;风险承担性战略使组织不断学习、广泛探索、保持领先,最大幅度地提高新创企业存活机率。     

基于次贷危机的金融道德风险探讨

本文以美国次贷危机为背景,通过分析危机中金融参与者各方的道德风险问题,得到金融体系的演进无法消除道德风险、监管部门要加强对道德风险的防范、完善制度是控制金融机构道德风险的关键、金融道德教育是消除金融从业人员道德风险的根本、建立新的国际货币体系是防范国家道德风险的必然要求等结论.     

我国禽畜产品出口面临的新问题-道德壁垒

我国是禽畜产品的生产大国,更是禽畜产品的出口大国,2003年出口就已近20亿美元.但我国禽畜产品在国际贸易中正面临着一个新问题--道德壁垒,即一些发达国家为了保护自身的利益,利用各国在动物福利标准方面的差异所采用的一种新的贸易保护方式.道德壁垒在国际贸易尤其是禽畜产品贸易中越来越明显.本文介绍了道德壁垒的含义和特点,分析了道德壁垒对我国禽畜产品出口的影响,并提出了如何应对道德壁垒的措施.     

市场经济下大学生法律诚信观念的培养

近几年,大学生诚信缺失问题,愈来愈成为公众关注的焦点。因此,如何在市场经济条件下引导大学生诚信观念的转变是教育工作者必须要正视的一个问题,笔者认为诚信教育必须实现从道德诚信向法律诚信、从主观诚信向客观诚信、从人格诚信向制度诚信的三个观念的转化。     

新兴市场合资企业R&D强度与企业绩效或有关系及调整

MNCs（跨国公司）通过组建合资企业进入新兴市场,由于其R&D活动面临着创新专用性风险,使其R&D强度与合资企业绩效之间表现为一种或有关系。使用厦门、长沙和重庆3地制造业样本检验验证了该理论假设。就市场战略而言,只有那些以国际市场战略为主的合资企业才能获得R&D对合资企业绩效的促进效应;进一步考虑合资企业不同的所有权结构——市场战略配置结构,发现只有在以国际市场战略——MNCs占绝对多数股权的合资企业中,R&D强度对企业绩效的促进效应才会显现,而其它任何类型的配置结构均没有发现这种促进效应。这些发现可为中国完善外资政策提供理论指导。     

基于溢出效益的研发联盟利润分配设计

研究了如何利用利益分配方式作为激励机制,促使研发联盟成员放弃投机行为(即道德风险);对Shapley值法进行修正并以此为分配依据,设计出研发联盟的利润分配机制,以此激励联盟成员自动选择联盟最优投资策略作为自己的研发投资策略;通过理论及数值仿真算例分析证明,采用修正的Shapley值法进行利润分配,能够实现防范道德风险,促进合作研发的成功。     

“对赌协议”的经济学研究

为研究企业并购过程中所广泛使用的“对赌协议”经济学本质及其影响,基于合同经济学与机制设计理论,以激励理论为核心,建立了投资方进行“对赌条款”设计的决策分析框架。探讨并对比了完全信息、不完全信息以及存在有限责任制等情形下“对赌协议”的Pareto有效性及其最优激励方案。结果表明：当企业管理层的风险偏好是中性的时候,“对赌协议”是一种能够有效保护投资者收益和激励管理层的最优制度安排。这一分析框架很好地解释了现实案例中所涉及的投融资双方的行为以及收益分配结果。     

The generalized value at risk admissible set: constraint consistency and portfolio outcomes

Generalized value at risk (GVaR) adds a conditional value at risk or censored mean lower bound to the standard value at risk and considers portfolio optimization problems in the presence of both constraints. For normal distributions the censored mean is synonymous with the statistical hazard function, but this is not true for fat-tailed distributions. The latter turn out to imply much tighter bounds for the admissible portfolio set and indeed for the logistic, an upper bound for the portfolio variance that yields a simple portfolio choice rule. The choice theory in GVaR is in general not consistent with classic Von Neumann–Morgenstern utility functions for money. A re-specification is suggested to make it so that gives a clearer picture of the economic role of the respective constraints. This can be used analytically to explore the choice of portfolio hedges.     

Pricing defaultable bonds: a middle-way approach between structural and reduced-form models

In this paper we present a valuation model that combines features of both the structural and reduced-form approaches for modelling default risk. We maintain the cause and effect or ‘structural’ definition of default and assume that default is triggered when a state variable reaches a default boundary. However, in our model, the state variable is not interpreted as the assets of the firm, but as a latent variable signalling the credit quality of the firm. Default in our model can also occur according to a doubly stochastic hazard rate. The hazard rate is a linear function of the state variable and the interest rate. We use the Cox et al. (A theory of the term structure of interest rates. Econometrica, 1985, 53(2), 385–407) term structure model to preclude the possibility of negative probabilities of default. We also horse race the proposed valuation model against structural and reduced-form default risky bond pricing models and find that term structures of credit spreads generated using the middle-way approach are more in line with empirical observations.     

Statistical estimate of the proportional hazard premium of loss

The well known Proportional Hazard Premium Principle, introduced by Wang (1996), depends upon the survival function of the insured risk and a risk aversion index. Using this premium principle, we propose an asymptotically normal semi-parametric estimator for the net-premium of a high-excess loss layer of heavy-tailed claim amounts. An algorithm to compute confidence bounds is given. Moreover, a comparison between this estimator and the non-parametric estimator, proposed by Necir & Boukhetala (2004), is carried out.