Overall effects of financial liberalization: financial crisis versus economic growth

ABSTRACT

The contribution of this work consists firstly in decomposing the effect of financial liberalization into a global direct positive effect on growth and an indirect negative effect via financial fragility and crisis. We show that the aggregate positive effect of financial liberalization outweighs the negative partial or temporary effect. Secondly, contrary to previous works, we distinguish many types of financial reforms. We found that equity market liberalization is the most important component in reducing economical costs associated with financial crisis. Thus, equity market liberalization is the most important favoring growth. Interest rate liberalization enhances significantly the probability of crisis leading to a short-run indirect effect more important than other financial reforms. Thirdly, we improved our work by addressing model uncertainty using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques to choose appropriate indicators for model crisis specification.     

浅析工业氨氮废水的处理方法及选择

本文介绍工业氨氮废水未经处理排放的危害性，对现在处理氨氪废水的方法进行简单的介绍并建议了选择方法。     

金属学与热处理课程教学内容和教学方法的改革实践

转变教育观念,增强质量意识,加强素质教育,改革金属学与热处理课程的教学内容和教学方法,对培养学生的创新精神和实践能力起到了促进作用。     

Impacts of Insurance on the Demand and Utilization of Drug Abuse Treatment: Implications for Insurance Mandates

This article addresses costs and utilization for mental health/substance abuse treatment, with particular emphasis on the emerging importance of self-insured coverage in the 1990s. We estimate drug abuse treatment demand and utilization with an insurance claims database from self-insured employers. The study population was selected from a large database consisting of health insurance claims for all treatment events starting 1 January 1989 and ending 31 December 1991. Approximately three-quarters of the increase in in-patient usage attributable to fractional co-insurance is due to increased usage per person (the other one-quarter refers to increased numbers of users). About half of the increase in outpatient usage is due to increased usage per person. In summary, our estimates provide useful measurements of the potential impacts of improved drug abuse treatment coverage. Although the potential induced in-patient expenditures and dead-weight losses are substantial compared to co-insurance rates of 0.5, losses can be trimmed by adjusting co-insurance, even at rates of approximately 0.1.     

央地金融监管协作:经验、回顾与展望

我国金融业体量庞大且关联复杂,金融治理愈发需要发挥中央和地方的协作,形成合力。近年来,各地均在探索建立中央金融管理部门分支机构与地方政府的监管协调机制,但仍缺乏系统、明确的顶层设计,且面临中央指导不够、基层力量不足、法律规定不明等挑战。本文对国内外的央地金融监管协调机制作了梳理,按互动程度深浅将国际上金融监管协作机制分为无需互动、有限互动和深度互动三种模式,并按时间和特点将国内央地监管协作机制建设分为四个阶段。在此基础上,通过分析现有机制中存在的困难和挑战,本文提出了构建双层监管协作框架、完善金融委地方协调机制、完善法律配套体系等系列建议。     

彩超在下肢深部静脉血栓诊断及治疗中的应用价值

目的探讨彩超在下肢深部静脉血栓诊断及治疗中的应用价值。方法回顾性分析2013年1月至2014年6月我院申请下肢深部静脉血栓形成彩超检查及治疗中彩超监测84例患者的超声图像。结果 84例申请检查病例,76例彩超诊断为下肢深部静脉血栓,漏诊8例。76例本院确诊病例,在彩超监测下经溶栓抗凝治疗后,总治疗有效率为94.7%,无效率为25.0%,未发生出血性并发症。结论彩超是基层医院诊断下肢深部静脉血栓的首选方法,对监测下肢深部静脉血栓诊断及治疗有重要意义。     

最低工资标准提升的收入效应研究

本文采用“中国健康与营养调查”1996～2010年的微观数据以及全国12个省份的最低工资数据,在控制地区差异和时间趋势的基础上,实证分析了最低工资标准上调对我国城镇居民工资收入的期望、整个分布以及低收入群体的异质性影响。研究结果表明：最低工资每提高1%,工资收入平均提高0.6%。最低工资对收入的影响主要集中在低收入人群,而对于高收入群体是否存在溢出效应是不确定的。最低工资对低收入群体中不同年龄和技能水平的劳动力具有异质性影响。最低工资有利于低收入者工资水平的提升,尤其对中老年低技能劳动力发挥了重要保障作用。最后给出相应的政策启示和进一步研究的方向。     

A Bayesian Net Benefit Approach to Cost‐effectiveness Analysis in Health Technology Assessment

The economic literature on cost‐effectiveness analysis in the context of decisions by health technology assessment agencies assumes as the quantity of interest a linear combination of the mean of the sampling distribution of the effectiveness and the cost. We argue that this is not always reasonable. Our reasons for this assertion are that (i) treatments are compared on the basis of mean values, and for some useful models the mean of the distribution of the cost, which is conditional on the available data, does not exist, and (ii) even for models for which the mean does exist, it might not constitute an accurate reflection of the distribution. This paper presents a general Bayesian cost‐effectiveness analysis of a single treatment, where the quantity of interest is the distribution, conditional on the data, of the net benefit. This approach permits a natural extension to several treatments, which enables us to make a statistical comparison. Illustrations with treatment comparisons for real and simulated data are given.     

Inverse probability weighted M-estimators for sample selection, attrition, and stratification

I provide an overview of inverse probability weighted (IPW) M-estimators for cross section and two-period panel data applications. Under an ignorability assumption, I show that population parameters are identified, and provide straightforward -consistent and asymptotically normal estimation methods. I show that estimating a binary response selection model by conditional maximum likelihood leads to a more efficient estimator than using known probabilities, a result that unifies several disparate results in the literature. But IPW estimation is not a panacea: in some important cases of nonresponse, unweighted estimators will be consistent under weaker ignorability assumptions.JEL Classification: C13, C21, C23I would like to thank Bo Honoré, Christophe Muller, Frank Windmeijer, and the participants at the CeMMAP/ESCR Econometric Study Group Microeconometrics Workshop for helpful comments on an earlier draft.