The accuracy of long-term earnings forecasts in the electric utility industry

This paper examines the accuracy of various methods of forecasting long-term earnings growth for firms in the electric utility industry. In addition to a number of extrapolative techniques, Value Line analyst forecasts are also evaluated. Value Line analyst forecasts for a five-year time horizon are found to be superior to many of the extrapolative models. Among the extrapolative models examined, implied growth and historical book value per share growth rate models performed best. These results provide strong support for using Value Line growth forecasts in cost of capital estimates for electric utilities in the context of utility rate cases. Value Line forecast errors could be explained by changes in dividend payout ratios, the firm's regulatory environment and bond rating changes.     

Charging for public services: the case of utilities in Norwegian local governments

This paper empirically analyzes the determinants of utility charges using a panel data set for a sample of Norwegian local governments. There is strong evidence of revenue substitution in the sense that local governments increase their utility charges when other sources of revenue (lump-sum grants and regulated tax revenue) become more restricted. Moreover, local political institutions are shown to be important: a high share of socialist representatives in the local council leads to high utility charges, whereas a strong political leadership is able to keep utility charges low.     

基于风险选择与投资收益的外汇储备币种结构研究

随着外汇储备规模的不断增加,国家外汇储备投资的风险偏好亦会发生相应的变化。借鉴 J. H.Makin(1971)的方法,构建外汇储备币种结构配置理论模型,讨论在效用最大化的情况下,储备资产投资如何在安全性、流动性和盈利性三原则间进行权衡。假设外汇储备仅投资于美元和欧元两种币种资产,选取2000年初~2014年第三季度的10年期美国国债和欧元区公债季度数据,运用协整分析、格兰杰检验等方法进行的实证研究发现：储备货币在外汇储备中的比重与储备货币收益率及其三阶矩显著正相关,国家外汇储备投资总体而言是风险规避型的。     

The “Euro Illusion”: Illusion or Fact?

The changeover to the euro elicited an upsurge of research on the effects of the new currency on consumers’ conversion strategies, price estimates, price evaluations, choices, and purchases. This research includes longitudinal surveys, interviews, and controlled experiments, both natural and in the laboratory. The present article starts with an overview of this research after which it more specifically focuses on research showing an influence of the nominal value, as expressed in different currencies, on price evaluations and consumer choice. For most countries, the transition to the euro led to a lower nominal value currency. A bias known as the “euro illusion” has been documented such that the subjective value of money is influenced in the direction of the nominal value (i.e., in most countries prices and salaries seem smaller when expressed in euros than in the old domestic currency). Although the term was coined in connection with the euro changeover, the nominal representation of a currency has been shown to influence the subjective value of money in unfamiliar currencies other than the euro. Thus, tourists travelling abroad may frequently be subject to such an illusion. Different mechanisms have been proposed to account for the euro illusion. One is the numerosity heuristic and another the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic in conjunction with biased conversion strategies. The size of the euro illusion is influenced by trade-offs between accuracy and effort. Consistent with this hypothesis, task importance, time constraints, familiarity with the conversion strategy, complexity of the conversion strategy, mood, and attitude towards the country or the currency all influence the size of the euro illusion.     

Representational Approaches Matter

This paper raises the question of how ethical issues arising out of social inequities involving international business in developing countries can be represented, and articulates a conceptual framework that identifies and maps four different approaches to representing or making sense of such issues. A fieldwork-based case study on the child labor issue in Pakistan’s soccer ball industry illustrates the argument that representational practices do matter, and that when representational approaches go awry, they end up savaging the well-being of the poor in the developing world. Farzad Rafi Khan holds a Ph.D. in Management from McGill University. He is currently an Assistant Professor at the Suleman Dawood School of Business, Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan.     

分块自适应图像稀疏分解

针对图像稀疏分解的计算时间复杂度非常高这个问题，提出了分块自适应图像稀疏分解算法。该算法根据稀疏分解计算时间复杂度和待分解图像大小之间的关系。把待分解图像分成互不重叠的小块。然后对每个小块图像进行稀疏分解。根据每一块的复杂程度。自适应地决定稀疏分解的结束。实验结果表明。在分解原子个数相近或相同的条件下。新算法对稀疏分解后重建图像比在整幅图像上进行稀疏分解重建的图像质量下降0．5dB。但计算速度提高了约15倍。     

我国上市公司关联交易的实证研究--基于2002年及2003年第一季度的数据分析

本文通过统计分析我国上市公司2002年和2003年第一季度的关联交易,对关联交易特征进行了实证分析,指出在证券监管加强的情况下上市公司的索取型关联交易具有更强的季度性和可操作性.本文认为非公平关联交易存在的内在动力是上市公司高管人员为了获得效用最大化,同时,高管人员从上市公司或关联方获得效用的大小决定了非公平关联交易的利益流向.     

基于2DPCA和稀疏表示的目标跟踪算法

针对现有的目标跟踪算法难以适应由光照、遮挡以及姿态变化引起的目标外观变化的问题,提出了一种基于二维主成分分析（2DPCA）和稀疏表示的目标跟踪算法。该算法采用2DPCA方法和稀疏表示建立目标外观模型,降低了目标模板的维数,并通过引入增量子空间更新方法对目标模板进行在线更新,降低了算法对存储空间的要求,提高了目标外观描述的准确性。仿真实验表明,在目标出现较大形变、部分遮挡和光照变化的情况下,该算法仍能保持较高的跟踪精度,具有较强的鲁棒性。     

Utility decrements associated with side effects in schizophrenia

Objective:

Most of the existing studies investigating the impact of schizophrenia on utility have focused on the different stages of the disease. The objective of this study was to describe and quantify the impact of treatment-related side-effects on utility in patients with schizophrenia, using data from an observational study.

Methods:

This study used data from the European Schizophrenia Cohort (EuroSC), a multi-center 2-year cohort study conducted in France, England, and Germany. The EQ-5D questionnaire was completed every 6 months, as well as the Subjective Side Effect Rating Scale, assessing patient distress over extrapyramidal symptoms (EPS), weight gain, sedation, and sexual dysfunction, used to assess whether or not the patient experienced the side-effect. At first a bivariate analysis was conducted to describe utility values with and without side-effects. Then, a random effects regression analysis was performed on utility, where random effects were controlled for repeated measures on the same subjects, with potential confounding factors. Finally, findings were compared with those of previous publications.

Results:

This sample consisted of 1208 patients with schizophrenia. At the baseline visit, the most reported side-effect was EPS (almost 60% of patients), followed by sedation and weight gain (～50% of patients for each), and sexual dysfunction (almost 30% of patients). Significant association with severity of symptoms, functioning abilities, and utility were found. Patients reporting none of the studied side-effects had an average EQ-5D index score of 0.81, found to be higher than scores of patients reporting EPS (0.70), sexual dysfunction (0.67), sedation (0.70), or weight gain (0.72). The random effects model reported a utility decrement of 0.042 for EPS, 0.022 for weight gain, 0.022 for sexual dysfunction, and 0.019 for sedation. Although the external validation was difficult due to the different methods or definitions of the side-effects, as well as the paucity of data for weight gain, sedation and sexual dysfunction, the results were generally consistent with previous studies.

Conclusion:

This study aimed at quantifying the direct impact of main side-effects associated with antipsychotics on patients’ utility. Results suggested a significant direct impact of side-effects, with EPS being the most impactful.     

The Structure of Municipal Water Supply Costs: Application to a Panel of French Local Communities

Network losses and returns are importantissues for water resource management, that are addressed in thispaper by modeling the structure of production for municipal waterutilities with two outputs: water sold to final customers andwater network losses. We propose a measure of economies of scopeto assess the benefit associated with joint production of waterfor final customers and water losses, and several measures ofreturns to evaluate potential gains in exploiting technologicalflexibility of water networks. We estimate the cost structureof water utilities using a GMM procedure with a Translog costfunction and panel data. Estimation results reveal a positivedegree of economies of scope, and short-run returns to productiondensity and returns to customer density that are not significantlydifferent from 1. Significant economies of scale indicate thatlocal communities may benefit from merging into water districts.