Global uncertainties and portfolio flow dynamics of the BRICS countries

This paper investigates the dynamics of bond and stock market capital flows to BRICS countries under uncertainties such as global economic policy uncertainty and the US trade policy uncertainty. We use a time-varying Granger causality framework over the January 2008-November 2019 period to analyze the predictive power of uncertainties on capital flows in the form of bond and equity. The results show that the effects are heterogeneous across countries and stronger during the Global Financial Crisis period and post-2018 period while it lost its significance in the subsequent period. The negative influence of uncertainties on capital flows directed to BRICS countries is also evident in the results of non-parametric time-varying panel models. Overall, it is thought that the heterogeneous structure of the causality between uncertainty and portfolio flows into BRICS may present portfolio diversification benefits for global investors.     

The determinants of austerity in the European Union 2010–16

This paper aims at decteting what drove the adoption of austerity policies over the period 2010–16 in a panel of 28 European countries. Austerity is identified by year increases in the ratio between the structural primary balance and potential GDP. By means of principal component factor analysis we select the aggregate factors that might affect austerity, namely (i) fiscal consolidation (correction of high deficits and debts), (ii) market discipline (high sovereign spreads, low ratings), (iii) rule-based fiscal discipline (compliance with the Eurozone rules), and macroeconomic stabilisation (consideration for the cyclical position of the economy). Then we estimate a dynamic panel model with the system-GMM method. Results show that the most important contributions to austerity are provided by the market discipline and fiscal consolidation factors together with Excessive Deficit Procedures, with no significant role played by concomitant macroeconomic conditions. Overall, governments complied with orthodox fiscal principles and rules.     

Prioritization of government expenditure on health in India: A fiscal space perspective

Unequal distribution of fiscal resources and lower prioritization of budget towards healthcare are the most important challenges in achieving universal health coverage in India. This study has examined relationships between government health expenditure and fiscal space (i.e. tax revenue, non-tax revenue, fiscal transfer, and borrowings) in twenty-one states of India for the period of 1980–2014. Our panel regression results imply that mobilization of tax revenue has a positive impact, while borrowings have a negative impact on the allocation of government expenditure on healthcare in the long-run. The panel quantile regression results show that states associated with the low and middle level of revenue growth have been mobilizing finance through central government transfer and borrowings in short-run. Further, the panel vector error correction models show that sum of the lagged coefficients of borrowings have a greater impact on health financing process as compared to other sources of fiscal space at short-run, and the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is relatively slower. The overall analysis concludes that less domestic revenue mobilization and higher dependency of borrowings for healthcare financing may create fiscal stress on state finances in the long-run, and thereby it could possibly reduce the prioritization of spending. Therefore, improvement in revenue growth and proper utilization of fiscal transfer would be appropriate policy implications from this study.     

基于结构方程的数据产业升级分析及建议--以秦皇岛“数谷”为例

“大数据”是当今社会继矿产资源、人力资源之后的一个新兴重要资源。秦皇岛是全国第一个将数据产业化的城市，并在开发区建立了“数谷”数据产业基地。在不断发展的同时，诸如电费过高、光纤不足、周边环境和公共交通有待完善等问题也随之暴露。文中通过在基地内发放调查问卷搜集数据，运用 SPSS19.0进行数据分析，再用AMOS17.0软件构建秦皇岛数据产业升级的结构模型，并对潜变量之间的路径关系进行结果分析。研究表明，对产业升级影响最大的因素是公共政策，其次是创新能力、市场需求、产业聚集和人力资源，最后结合路径图及结论，提出相应的建议。     

关于铁路单线隧道接触网弓形腕臂预配平台的相关研究

为降低铁路单线隧道接触网弓形腕臂预配施工难度,论文研究了一种接触网弓形腕臂预配平台,结合单线隧道内弓形腕臂数据精测技术及计算软件,精确测量预配,保证弓形腕臂的安装精度和质量,使弓形腕臂在现场施工中一次成优。论文结合实际,就某铁路单线隧道接触网弓形腕臂预配平台作具体分析。     

地方政府土地财政依赖一定会推高城市一级土地市场化水平吗? ——基于2003—2015年中国省级面板数据的检验

研究目的：在深入分析地方政府土地财政依赖对城市一级土地市场作用机理的基础上，利用2003—2015年中国31个省（市、区）（不包括港澳台地区）的面板数据进行计量检验，测定地方政府土地财政依赖度对城市一级土地市场化率的影响程度。研究方法：计量经济分析方法。研究结果：为弥补地方政府土地财政缺口的刚性需求，地方政府领导人会权变地选择一级土地市场上各类用地的出让方式和出让量。土地财政依赖度与城市一级土地市场化率之间存在倒U型关系。研究结论：当土地财政依赖度与一级土地市场化率均较低时，地方政府会在一级土地市场上出让土地时适当增加“招拍挂”的比例，从而在提高土地财政依赖度的同时提升一级土地市场化率；当土地财政依赖度较高但一级土地市场化率较低时，地方政府会增加一级土地市场上“招拍挂”的比例，在降低土地财政依赖程度的同时提升一级土地市场化率。     

“Data localization”: The internet in the balance

There is a steady global trend towards “Data Localization,” laws by which data is required to be maintained and processed within the geographic boundaries of its state of origin. This development has raised concerns about its possible adverse impacts on emerging data-intensive technologies such as Cloud services/E-commerce, Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and the Internet of Things (collectively, the Embedded Infosphere). The inability to reach an international agreement on rules for cross-border data flows may have significant adverse consequences for all future users of the Internet.The basis of Data Localization is grounded in two distinct but inter-related policy models: Data Sovereignty and Trans-Border Data Flows. These two concepts have different origins. “Data Sovereignty” is derived from the historic power of a state of absolute and exclusive control within its geographic borders. Policies behind TBDFs arose in Europe following World War II, primarily motivated by Nazi use of early proto-computers to help round up Jews and others. As they have evolved, TBDF policies have been directed primarily at protecting personal data and privacy.This article first examines the issues of: 1) “Information Sovereignty” and 2) TBDFs. It then describes the arguments for and against “Data Localization,” offers some examples of strong localization policies (Russia, China), and summarizes contesting policy proposals. It then contextualizes TBDF with issues of human rights (free flow of information) and privacy.While the utility of an international agreement on TBDFs is clear, the differences in approaches are tenacious. For the free-market developed world (e.g, EU, OECD), the path forward seems to lead through policy convergence to compatible rules, with differentiated levels of data protection and accountability. It is far from clear whether these rules will address, in a mandatory way, issues of the “free flow” of information in the human rights sense. At the same time, there are countries (e.g., BRICS), representing a majority of the world's population, in which political and cultural resistance will produce stringent Cyber Sovereignty and Data Localization policies with few if any human rights components.The article concludes that the more the Internet is “localized”, the more attenuated its benefits will become. The negative consequences of Data Localization will become increasingly obvious as new, data-intensive technologies become ubiquitous, creating a condition of “Data Dependence”. It is projected that in the future the nations with the least amount of Data Localization and the most open flow of information will be the most successful in benefiting from new data-intensive embedded, networked technologies. This will most likely be characterized by values adopted as policies and practices in the EU.