河北省土地生态系统服务价值研究及趋势预测

编制适用于河北省的土地生态系统服务价值系数表,利用土地基础数据和生态系统服务价值量化模型,计算出河北省土地生态系统服务价值在1996～2006年呈现先减少后增加的变化趋势;并运用spss统计软件中的曲线回归对变化趋势做出了合理预测。     

考虑应力作用影响的黄泛区粉土土水特征曲线分析与预测

为了研究应力作用对土水特征曲线的影响，采用应力关联土水特征仪测定不同应力下粉土的脱湿-吸湿曲线，讨论应力变化对粉土土水特征的影响规律，并利用应力与孔隙比的关系提出考虑应力作用的粉土土水特征曲线预测方法。研究发现：试样在应力逐渐增加时不易脱水，但更易吸水，非饱和粉土的持水能力随着正应力的增大而增强；脱湿曲线与吸湿曲线并不重合，有明显的回滞现象，并且吸湿曲线饱和度的变化比脱湿曲线更加剧烈；随着正应力的增大，滞回圈面积减小，滞回特性减弱。此外，将预测曲线与测得的试验曲线对比, 可知提出的考虑应力的土水特征曲线预测方法具有较好的预测精度。     

Putting the learning curve in context

In implementation of change, people learn new ways of doing things, develop new skills, and adopt new organizational routines. This paper applies learning curve theory to implementation by developing a system dynamics model that includes two extensions to classic learning curve theory. First, the model includes a required output level for the individual. Second, the model includes a budget constraint on time that forces a choice between an old and a new way to achieve the output. Doing work the new way builds experience, increasing productivity and thus favoring continued use of the new skill, but model analysis demonstrates that this reinforcing process works to favor the new skill only at relatively high levels of productivity. Otherwise, the same process is a vicious cycle, driving out the new skill. The model exhibits a mode of behavior in which learning begins and then stalls and another mode in which the new skill becomes the preferred one. The paper identifies the tipping point between these two modes and characterizes the transition problem: Learning by doing is a dynamic process, a transition from use of an old way to a new way that requires accumulating experience beyond a threshold.     

The Swedish third way: an assessment of the performance and validity of the Rehn-Meidner model

This paper analyses the functioning of the Rehn–Meidnermodel in Sweden and the validity of the model's underlying theory.Both sceptics and friends of ‘the Swedish model’have exaggerated the effects of active labour market policyand solidarity wage policy on employment, inflation and growth.However, these policies have contributed to the reduction ofhysteresis effects and wage differentials in Sweden. Furthermore,Swedish experiences confirm the Rehn–Meidner view thatpositive demand shocks and expansionary macroeconomic policiesmake it difficult to combine full employment with price stability,economic growth and equity even if central wage negotiationsare coordinated and trade unions willingly accept wage restraint.     

新疆人口城市化问题研究

运用人口普查资料及其它人口统计数据 ,分析新疆城镇人口过去 50年的变化 ,探究新疆人口城镇化过程的特征和成因 ,并运用数学模型预测未来新疆城镇人口及人口城镇化水平。提出新疆城镇体系发展战略构想及对策     

Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States

The paper seeks to explain the inflationary dynamics in the Baltic countries since the mid-1990s. Single-equation estimations generally yield poor results, while panel data estimations provide statistically and economically satisfactory findings. The main result is that the observed gradual disinflation can to a large extent be explained by adjustment to international prices. Stringent fixed exchange rate systems have exerted downward pressure on inflation both directly and via expectations to future inflation. Measures of excess capacity in the labour market have no effect on inflation, while industrial output gaps have some explanatory power. Real oil price shocks have an immediate but short-lived impact on inflation.     

Marketed tax avoidance: an economic analysis∗

Recent years have witnessed the growth of mass-marketed tax avoidance schemes aimed at the middle (not top) of the income distribution, with significant implications for tax revenue. We examine the consequences for the structure of income tax, and for tax authority anti-avoidance efforts, of tax avoidance of this type. In a model that allows for both demand- and supply-side considerations, we find that: there is an endogenous threshold income below which taxpayers do not avoid, and above which they avoid maximally; the per-dollar price of tax avoidance is decreasing in income under progressive taxation; endogenous adjustments in the price of avoidance make supply less responsive to anti-avoidance activity than thought previously; and avoidance may drive a non-monotone relationship between tax rates and tax revenue. These findings suggest that new approaches to anti-avoidance, beyond legal enforcement, might be needed.     

工业废水污染与城镇化进程的动态关系分析

选取2003—2012年中国工业废水中的5类污染物,对工业废水污染物和城镇化率的关系进行库兹涅茨曲线拟合,并在此基础上采用3次指数平滑法对工业废水污染物的排放量进行预测。结果表明:随着城镇化建设的加快,我国工业废水污染物中石油类和铅的排放量呈现先下降后上升的趋势,但化学需氧量、氨氮和挥发酚等污染物却不符合典型的环境库兹涅茨曲线形状。预计到2020年,化学需氧量和氨氮的排放量将呈现负值,而挥发酚、石油类和铅的排放量将急剧增加。     

The term structures of equity and interest rates

This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model capable of jointly explaining the term structure of interest rates, returns on the aggregate market, and the risk and return characteristics of value and growth stocks. Both the term structure of interest rates and returns on value and growth stocks convey information about how the representative investor values cash flows of different maturities. We model how the representative investor perceives risks of these cash flows by specifying a parsimonious stochastic discount factor for the economy. Shocks to dividend growth, the real interest rate, and expected inflation are priced, but shocks to the price of risk are not. Given reasonable assumptions for dividends and inflation, we show that the model can simultaneously account for the behavior of aggregate stock returns, an upward-sloping yield curve, the failure of the expectations hypothesis, and the poor performance of the capital asset pricing model.