九寨——黄龙核心景区生态旅游环境保护探析

本文基于对九寨—黄龙核心景区生态保护现状的分析,对景区生态环境保护进行了诊断,并提出应以环境容量为基础,运用经济原理,整合行政资源,以达到管理科学、生态平衡、持续发展的目标。     

我国制造业环境管制的实证研究

从制造业的角度出发,分析了政府对环境管制(ER)的两种形式:正式管制(FER)和非正式管制(I-ER),建立了环境管制均衡方程,并且采用面板数据的分析方法对理论假设进行了验证。研究表明,假设的影响制造业环境管制的主要因素:政府保护意愿、劳动密集程度、产业规模、经济外向度、产业国有化程度、科技吸收转化支出和劳动力素质的高低均产生了显著的影响。     

The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process

This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool.     

Mapinfo在区域城市环境质量评价中的应用

本文探讨了基于Mapinfo的城市环境质量评价研究思路,在明确评价单元划分和评价方法的基础上,以各个省区地级以上城市作为分析样本,通过对评价区城市环境质量状况的综合评价实证研究,结果表明:Mapin-fo的应用可以有效支持这一评价过程,它能够将数值计算与图形处理有机的结合起来,使评价工作更加简洁、直观、高效和易于操作。     

Consistency and optimality in a dynamic game of pollution control II: Monopoly

This paper continues a line of research begun in Batabyal (1995a). I model the interaction between a regulator and a monopolistic, polluting firm as a Stackelberg differential game in which the regulator leads. The firm creates pollution, which results in a stock externality. I analyze the intertemporal effects of alternate pollution control measures. The principal issue here concerns the dynamic inconsistency of the optimal solution. Inter alia, I compare the steady state levels of pollution under optimal and under dynamically consistent policies.     

The Case of the Missing Pollution Haven Hypothesis

One particularly vexing puzzle for economists and policymakers over the past several decades concerns the empirical significance of the theoretically predicted pollution haven hypothesis. While neoclassical theory and conventional wisdom both surmise that local economies will suffer deleterious effects from stricter environmental regulations, empirical studies have largely failed to validate such claims. This study utilizes the method of matching to show that the impact of stricter regulation is heterogeneous spatially, varying systematically based on location-specific attributes. Previous studies that assume a homogenous response may therefore inadvertently mask the overall impact of more stringent regulations by pooling unaffected and affected regions.JEL Classification: Q25, Q28, H00, L51, R1The authors wish to thank to Michael Crew, Anthony Heyes, an anonymous referee, Werner Antweiler, Randy Becker, Wayne Gray, Shelby Gerking, Michael Greenstone, Vern Henderson, and Arik Levinson. Participants at various university seminars and conferences also lent useful insights to this line of research.     

A review and validation of overall survival extrapolation in health technology assessments of cancer immunotherapy by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence: how did the initial best estimate compare to trial data subsequently made available?

Background: Validation of overall survival (OS) extrapolations of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) during the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Single Technology Assessment (STA) process is limited due to data still maturing at the time of submission. Inaccurate extrapolation may lead to inappropriate decision-making. The availability of more mature trial data facilitates a retrospective analysis of the plausibility and validity of initial extrapolations. This study compares these extrapolations to subsequently available longer-term data.

Methods: A systematic search of completed NICE appraisals of ICIs from March 2000 to December 2017 was performed. A targeted search was also undertaken to procure published OS data from the pivotal clinical trials for each identified STA made available post-submission to NICE. Initial Kaplan-Meier curves and associated extrapolations from NICE documentation were extracted to compare the accuracy of OS projections versus the most mature data.

Results: The review identified 11 STAs, of which 10 provided OS data upon submission to NICE. The extrapolations undertaken considered parametric or piecewise survival models. Additional data cut-offs provided a mean of 18 months of OS beyond the end of the original data. Initial extrapolations typically under-estimated OS from the most mature data cut-off by 0.4–2.7%, depending on the choice of assessment method and use of the manufacturer- or ERG-preferred extrapolation.

Conclusion: Long-term extrapolation of OS is required for NICE STAs based on initial immature OS data. The results of this study demonstrate that the initial OS extrapolations employed by manufacturers and ERGs generally predicted OS reasonably well when compared to more mature data (when available), although on average they appeared to underestimate OS. This review and validation shows that, while the choice of OS extrapolation is uncertain, the methods adopted are generally aligned with later-published follow-up data and appear appropriate for informing HTA decisions.     

机场环境管制探讨

机场环境管制的重点是噪声和排放物污染。除直接管制外,收费是国外机场环境管制中应用得最多且最有效率的经济管制方式。我国除继续强化已有的直接管制方式外,还可以从收取以保护环境为目的的噪声费和排放物费、限制机场土地的使用、采取国际机场协会提出的短期和长期机场环境保护措施三个方面进一步加强机场环境管制。     

生态系统服务价值评价在土地规划环境影响评价中的应用

本文引入生态服务价值理论,尝试从生态系统服务价值变化的角度评价镇江市土地利用规划(1996～2010年)对区域生态环境的影响。结果表明,在实施土地利用规划的情况下,镇江市的生态服务功能价值将从1996年的7.91亿美元下降到2010年的7.75亿美元,镇江市土地利用规划将对区域生态环境带来负面影响,需要采取积极有效的措施降低对土地利用变化对生态环境的影响。     

完善我国环境税收制度的思考

我国环境税制建设应从完善现行各税种中涉及的环境保护和生态发展的各项税收政策入手,并在此基础上开征专门的环境税种。当前应尽快开征水资源环保税、垃圾处理税和资源开采税,不宜开征排污税,燃油税也不宜纳入环境税范围;在完善我国环境税制方面,应把重点放在对消费税、资源税、耕地占用税、车船使用税以及有关的税收优惠政策调整上。