Determinants of yield spread dynamics: Euro versus US dollar corporate bonds

This paper presents a systematic comparison between the determinants of euro and US dollar yield spread dynamics. The results show that US dollar yield spreads are significantly more affected by changes in the level and the slope of the default-free term structure and the stock market return and volatility. Surprisingly, euro yield spreads are strongly affected by the US (and not the euro) level and slope. This confirms the dominance of US interest rates in the corporate bond markets. Interestingly, I find that liquidity risk is higher for US dollar corporate bonds than euro corporate bonds. For both regions, the effect of changes in the bid-ask spread is mainly significant during periods of high liquidity risk. Finally, the results indicate that the credit cycle as measured by the region-specific default probability significantly increases US yield spreads. This is not the case for euro yield spreads.     

Does the bond‐stock earnings yield differential model predict equity market corrections better than high P/E models?

We extend the literature on crash prediction models in three main ways. First, we explicitly relate crash prediction measures and asset pricing models. Second, we present a statistical significance test for crash prediction models. Finally, we propose a definition and a measure of robustness for these models. We apply our statistical test and measure the robustness of selected model specifications of the Price‐Earnings (P/E) ratio and Bond Stock Earning Yield Differential (BSEYD) measures. This analysis shows that the BSEYD and P/E ratios, were statistically significant robust predictors of corrections on the US equity market over the period 1964 to 2014.     

Factor pricing in commodity futures and the role of liquidity

This paper empirically investigates the pricing factors and their associated risk premiums of commodity futures. Existing pricing factors in equity and bond markets, including market premium and term structure, are tested in commodity futures markets. Hedging pressure in commodity futures markets and momentum effects is also considered. This study combines these factors to discuss their importance in explaining commodity future returns, while the literature has studied these factors separately. One of the important pricing factors in equity and bond markets is liquidity, but its role as a pricing factor in commodity futures markets has not yet been studied. To our knowledge, this research is the first to study liquidity as a pricing factor in commodity futures. The risk premiums of two momentum factors and speculators’ hedging pressure range from 2% to 3% per month and are greater than the risk premiums of roll yield (0.8%) and liquidity (0.5%). The result of a significant liquidity premium suggests that liquidity is priced in commodity futures.     

国债收益率对信贷市场均衡的影响

国债市场规模的扩大可以满足机构投资者的收益性和流动性偏好,机构投资者投资组合的调整使得国债具有影响信贷市场均衡的功效:国债收益率变化影响信贷市场利率和信贷市场均衡规模。实证研究表明,在协整关系上国债收益率和信贷资金增长率具有负相关关系,表明国债收益率上升对信贷资金增长率具有降低作用,不过效果不明显,不足以成为影响信贷市场资金规模的原因。国债收益率和信贷资金增长率不互为因果关系,这与中国国债规模偏小、持有者结构不合理和交易所国债市场逐渐边缘化的趋向有关。     

衬衫生产RTY的研究

通过研究衬衫生产流通合格率RTY,建立科学完善的质量检验机构和检验点,及时发现并解决关键项,降低生产流程中产品返工、返修或报废所造成的损失,对衬衫生产企业有一定的参考价值。     

对“林木市场成熟理论”提出的探讨与商榷

从"林木市场成熟理论"立论问题、商品林是不是"一市场就灵"、林木是商品但又是一类特殊的商品、森林分类经营与整体协调、需要什么样的创新以及如何创新等5个方面,对"林木市场成熟理论"进行分析。即从概念到立论,从内涵到理论,从实践到应用,从整体论的角度分析了与森林成熟有关的理论,特别是森林永续利用理论的形成;在用材林经营中如何正确对待"市场"与"计划",以及在研究森林成熟与森林可持续经营中如何处理好整体与局部的关系作了简要的分析。     

二季度债券市场收益率曲线将陡峭化上行

在充裕资金面的影响下,一季度银行间债券市场走出一波温和上扬行情,10年期国债收益率从年初的3．7％左右下行至一季度末的3．35％附近。文章综合相关数据分析后预计,未来工业增加值增速、货币供应量将有所放缓,新增贷款有望平稳增长,宏观经济仍将高位运行,结合经济走势相似年份的CPl均值,预计二季度CPI上行至3％后逐步回落,国债及政策性金融债收益率曲线整体小幅上行,收益率曲线呈现陡峭化态势。     

红黄壤地区基础单产与粮食发展相关研究

通过量化分析,认为南方红黄壤地区粮食单产增产潜力最大的地区在低产偏中产地区,粮食总产的增长主要来自于中低产地区,区域治理的重点应放在中低产地区,粮田保护的重点应放在高产地区。     

纳税人偷税行为原因分析与对策

对于不法纳税人的偷税问题 ,应从纳税人作为“经济人”、“社会人”、“道德人”三个角度出发 ,分析偷税行为产生的深层次原因 ,在此基础上采取诸如加强税务制度与队伍建设、提高惩罚成本、建立公平的税收体系、培养纳税人纳税道德、用税收信息化手段建立舆论监督机制等相应措施 ,借以对不法纳税人的偷税行为进行治理。