在进一步解放思想中深化改革

纵观世界历史,人类社会的进步总是由思想解放引领的。从思想的形成过程和人类自身的认知规律来看,人的思想总是会受到“内因”和“外因”的束缚,因此,需要打破阻碍或束缚人们准确认识客观现实的各种藩篱,使思想和实际相符合,使主观和客观相一致。中国四十年的改革开放史就是一部思想解放史。因为实现了“三个确立”,并且正在冲破“三个思维定势”,我们得以为中国经济起飞和持续发展提供不竭动力。进入新时代,解放思想必须实实在在地落到解决深层次问题上,需重点关注三个方面：一是推动中国理论体系发挥重大作用,二是完善符合中国实践的公平正义保障体系,三是发展构建命运共同体需要的新国际交往思维。     

银保协作、风险自留与银行信用风险补偿——基于银保信贷系统的分析视角

在分析风险自留的内生逻辑基础上,进一步分析风险自留实现银行信用风险补偿的内在机理。研究表明：银保信贷系统通过对贷款企业个体风险与事先设定的平均代偿风险的匹配性甄别,实现对银行信用风险的分级补偿功能。针对银行超预期信用风险,先行实施银行风险拨备机制对银行平均代偿风险进行补偿,然后实施超额风险自留机制对超过平均代偿风险的银行超额风险部分再次进行补偿,超额风险自留补偿基金将由银行与担保机构依据各自的风险均衡配置阈值占比共同筹集,以此来实现银行信用风险分级补偿目标。并以此为依据,设计了银保信贷系统风险自留机制。     

供应链金融利益主体的多阶段博弈研究

现代经济中,金融在资源配置方面发挥的作用明显不足,出现严重的资源浪费和供需错配现象,加剧了中小企业面临的融资难问题.本文从供应链金融的内涵切入,建立以利益相关者为主体的融资量化模型,利用多阶段博弈理论对企业不同模式下的成本收益进行检验,结果表明:供应链金融在实现上、下游各利益相关者个体的最优化的同时,也可有效促使供应链整体的利益最大化、实现高效运作和价值增值,全面实现链上企业间的资源共享、互利共赢.     

Ownership concentration and bank risk: international study on acquisitions

This paper explores the effects of different types of bank ownership concentration on changes in bank risk during acquisition years. Using multi-country data from 2000 to 2006, during which market failures caused by various crises and government interventions are less influential to acquisition decisions, we collect 505 banking acquisition deals from 23 countries to examine which type of ownership concentration (such as financial intermediary, capital investor, non-financial, and state ownership) brings larger changes to an acquirer’s risk from pre-acquisition year to post-acquisition year (including non-performing loans, capital adequacy ratio, loan loss reserve, and credit rating). The empirical analyses show that acquirer banks with a concentration of shares owned by financial intermediaries and non-financial firms experience larger risk changes during acquisition years. In contrast, the risk changes of acquirer banks with a concentration of capital investors and state ownership are lower. Robustness checks from the random effect estimation, instrumental variables model, reverse causality, and different subsamples of (non-)U.S. or different levels of regulation enforcement confirm these results.     

Investments,Credit, and Corporate Financial Distress: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Although they are instrumental for economic development, productivity-enhancing corporate investments may increase the financial vulnerability of companies, especially in an economic and financial crisis. We employ an instrumental probit model with the aim of finding evidence for the investment and credit patterns that led companies into financial distress during the global financial crisis 2009–2010. The company-level micro-data for our study on three Central and East European countries—Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and two Baltic countries, Latvia and Lithuania—originates from two independent surveys, the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey conducted in 2008 and the Financial Crisis Survey conducted in 2009/2010. Both were carried out jointly by the EBRD and the World Bank. Our results emphasize a substantial adverse impact from investment intensity and debt financing on company financial soundness during a crisis. On top of that, we discover a strong non-linear pattern in the sensitivity of company distress to its investment-financing nexus.     

Globalization and Outward Foreign Direct Investment

While recent research into foreign direct investment (FDI) has focused on examining the importance of institutions, corruption, money laundering, and tax havens, the role of globalization on FDI has not yet been explored. This research investigates the impacts of globalization on outward FDI. We find that both overall globalization and its economic and social dimensions significantly positively influence outward FDI flows. We also demonstrate that beyond the level of globalization, corruption, money laundering, and the status of a country as a tax haven, cross-country similarity also plays an important role. Accordingly, policies specifically designed to increase the transparency of outward FDI flows should be required to address money laundering and the existence of tax havens.     

Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

In this article, we analyze export sophistication based on a large panel dataset (2001–2015; 101 countries) and using various estimation algorithms. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the bias properties of estimators and show that GMM-type estimators outperform instrumental-variable and fixed-effects estimators. Based on our analysis we document that GDP per capita and the size of the economy exhibit significant and positive effects on export sophistication; weak institutional quality exhibits negative effect. We also show that export sophistication is path-dependent and stable even during a major economic crisis, which is especially important for emerging and developing economies.     

The Role of Total Factor Productivity Growth in Middle-Income Countries

We examine the importance of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in middle-income countries (MICs) based on cross-country panel data for the period of 1975–2014. We find that TFP growth contributed significantly to a country’s upward transition from middle-income to high-income country group. The TFP growth model reveals that the catch-up effect, human capital, smaller population, weak currency, and research and development growth are significant sources of TFP growth. We do not find a systematic difference in the TFP growth models for MICs. In analyzing the role of factors influencing TFP growth at different income stages, strengthening innovative activities and building innovative capacities are important in overcoming the challenges that MICs face when transitioning to the high-income group. Governments of upper MICs need to initiate reform to motivate innovation by optimizing national R&D systems, and redesigning the educational system to target promoting innovation.     

中国经济波动的产出和通胀效应 ——基于供求冲击相关的SVAR模型分析

本文结合产出缺口-通胀形式的菲利普斯曲线（AS曲线）,构建了产出缺口和通 胀率的SVAR模型,并将识别结果同B-Q约束条件下的识别结果进行比较,以此来探究我国近 三十多年来宏观经济系统中需求冲击和供给冲击对产出和通胀动态的效应。主要得出以下结 论：第一,供求冲击之间高度相关;第二,需求冲击是我国通胀波动的决定性因素,并且存在 持久稳定的效应。第三,供给冲击是我国经济增长的绝对主导力量。第四,我国存在相对陡峭 的菲利普斯曲线（AS曲线）。第五,产出缺口与同比CPI对我国经济状况的拟合效果最好。     

“丝路经济带”九省市经济金融竞争力评价

深入剖析丝绸之路沿线国内段九省市的综合发展实力,探索不同发展战略定位下省 区市竞合协同发展路径,对全面发展丝绸之路经济带具有重要意义。本文从经济发展竞争力、 环境设施与可持续发展竞争力、科技创新与财富竞争力、金融发展竞争力、对外开放竞争力五 个维度建立指标评价体系,运用分类主成分分析法全面衡量九个省市经济金融发展的分项和综 合竞争力,将九省市分为三个发展梯度,形成资源聚集与要素流动的直观剖析。在此基础上,利 用聚类分析法得出丝绸之路经济带区域经济关联的着力点与经济发展的增长极,并最终得出处 于不同梯度省区市间开展基于优势竞争力的产业间合作的三大有效路径。