The fiscal cost of child grants in the context of high adult mortality in South Africa: A simulation to 2015

This paper investigates the expected costs of cash transfers to children in South Africa up to 2015. The child population is not expected to grow between 2008 and 2015 and thus the fiscal cost of the Child Support Grant is expected to stabilise in the near future. The other major child grant, the Foster Care Grant, is far less predictable – while it is not intended to be an orphan grant, three quarters of its beneficiaries are orphans. Because of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, the number of dual orphans is expected to double between 2008 and 2015, reaching 1.3 million, and the overall number of orphans (maternal, paternal and dual) to reach 4.8 million by 2015. If the Foster Care Grant were to become a de facto orphan grant, its costs would escalate rapidly. The paper does not argue in favour of an orphan grant, but rather for greater effort in ensuring that the Child Support Grant reaches the neediest children, especially maternal orphans.     

How better targeting of social spending affects social delivery in South Africa

Social spending has become a major tool of targeting resources to South Africa's poor. The poor now get considerably more than their population share of social spending, but the underlying distribution of income is so skewed that overall post-fiscal inequality has not improved much. Concentration ratios and curves show considerable shifts in social spending incidence in the period 1995 to 2006. However, the efficiency of that spending is low, resulting in limited social outcomes and consequently also limited gains to the poor from better targeting. This paper therefore calls for the South African policy discussion to shift to why the ever-increasing fiscal inputs and improved targeting of those inputs have not produced the desired social outcomes.     

Aid Effectiveness,Debt Relief and Public Finance Response: Evidence from a Panel of HIPC Countries

Substantial amounts of debt relief have been granted to a set of low-income countries, as an alternative aid modality. Although the theoretical case for debt relief is firmly established, only empirical analysis can show whether debt relief is indeed a (more) effective mode of aid delivery. We investigate the linkages between debt relief and other fiscal variables such as current expenditure, government investment, taxation and domestic borrowing, in comparison to the effects of grants and concessional loans. We find that the fiscal impact of HIPC debt relief follows fairly complex dynamics. For example, debt relief initially reduces government investment, but the effect becomes positive after two years, well outperforming other modes of aid delivery. JEL no. F34, F35, O11, O19     

外汇储备超常增长下的财政政策选择

2001年以来,我国外汇储备加速增长,到2006年10月份突破1万亿美元,成为世界第一大外汇储备国.巨额外汇储备造成了外汇占款激增,增加了基础货币投放,致使当前我国通货膨胀压力加大,进一步削弱了货币政策独立性和有效性.为此,文章提出利用适度扩张的财政政策,即通过政府发行长期债券的方式吸纳多余的外汇储备,扩大内需,调节经济内外平衡.     

Fiscal policy and structural reforms in transition economiesAn empirical analysis

This paper provides an empirical examination of the relationship between fiscal balance and structural reforms using panel data from 25 transition economies. The results indicate that privatization and restructuring, via unemployment, affect the fiscal balance negatively. This finding provides support for ideas in theoretical transition economics that maintain that fiscal pressures are most severe in fast-reforming countries. In contrast, price liberalization has a robust positive impact on fiscal performance. In addition, the results differ somewhat over different countries and transition time.     

北欧福利国家的财政政簧

致力于提升社会福利水平的财政政策经济理论为北欧国家的财政政策制定和执行提供了理论框架，使北欧国家逐步发展为福利国家。然而本文认为该理论的某些假设并不切合实际。     

How to promote R&D-based growth? Public education expenditure on scientists and engineers versus R&D subsidies

This paper compares the positive and normative implications of two alternative measures to promote R&D-based growth: R&D subsidies to firms and publicly provided education targeted to the development of science and engineering (S&E) skills. The model accounts for the specificity of S&E skills, where individuals with heterogeneous ability choose their type of education. Although intertemporal knowledge spillovers are the only R&D externality, the analysis suggests that R&D subsidies may be detrimental to both productivity growth and welfare. Moreover, they raise earnings inequality. In contrast to R&D subsidies, publicly provided education targeted to S&E skills are found to be unambiguously growth-promoting and neutral with respect to the earnings distribution.     

Evaluation of investment subsidies: when is deadweight zero?

In the evaluation of investment subsidies one of the critical issues concerns the assessment of deadweight, that is, the degree to which projects would have been carried out without grant assistance. With the increasing restrictions on and cuts in subsidies for investment projects in the EU countries maximisation of the impact of the public resources that remain can be achieved through their allocation for projects with minimum deadweight. This paper studies the profile of subsidised zero deadweight investment projects – projects that would be abandoned without public subsidies – in Finland. The empirical analysis is conducted using micro level data on investment projects by private sector firms. The data set comprises 3,423 projects that were granted public investment subsidies between 2001 and 2003. Our results show that the likelihood of zero deadweight is significantly dependent on the characteristics of the subsidised firm, the characteristics of the investment project and the location of the subsidised firm.     

福建省财政支农政策的现实思考与建议

近年来，福建省为发展农业做出了许多努力，但仍然存在“三农”问题。就财政支农政策而言，存在着支农资金有限、效益不高，以及重投入、轻管理等问题。针对目前福建省“三农”问题及财政支农政策的现状，需要通过增加财政支农资金规模、完善农村社会保障、改善农村教育条件以及加强支农资金管理等途径进行解决。     

人大对地方政府财政预算监督问题的探讨

预算是财政的核心。要构建社会主义和谐社会,必需编制和执行一个和谐的财政预算。对政府的财政预算进行监督,是宪法赋予人大的职权。引起人大对地方政府财政预算监督不力的原因是多方面的,但关键是由于民主程度不高,使人大对地方政府财政预算监督的权威性不强,监督的作用发挥不够。加强人大对地方政府财政预算的监督,关键是要推进政治体制改革,改革人大代表的选举制度和真正实行党政领导干部选举罢免制度。