Combining the Effects of OLS and Spread on Futures Hedging: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Index

Abstract:

This study proposes a dynamic hedge ratio, the combined ordinary least squares spread (COLSS), which combines the hedge ratio of ordinary least squares and the value of spread. Using this dynamic ratio for hedging with futures contracts, one can replace spot risk with spread risk. The COLSS captures not only the long-run equilibrium between spot and futures returns, but also the short-run deviation from equilibrium. The spread is forecast by one-period lagged stock market factors and high-order moments that are estimated by an options model. In the in-sample and out-of-sample tests, the COLSS strategy achieves significant risk reduction and outperforms the alternative models by a large utility improvement.     

关于养老保险基金保值增值的探讨

养老保险基金的管理存在诸多问题，如基金被挤占挪用、管理手段软化等，因此，必须采取科学办法加强管理。在做好市场调查和可行性研究的基础上，适当拓宽基金投资运营渠道、实施政企分开、加强立法和社会监督体系，以确保养老保险基金的保值增值     

约束机制的建立是国有资产保值增值的关键

本文分析了我国国有资产运行中存在的问题，提出保证国有资产保值增值的几项措施     

模糊限制语在英语课堂教学中的功能分析

模糊限制语是英语课堂教学中常见的语言现象，在师生的言语交际中起着非常重要的作用。该文从模糊限制语的分类和应用着手，分析了模糊限制语在英语课堂教学中所实现的五项功能：缓和语气，话题延续，自我保护，礼貌交际，减少“情绪过滤”。     

Time‐varying Hedge Ratios: A Principal‐agent Approach

We use the classic agency model to derive a time‐varying optimal hedge ratio for low‐frequency time‐series data: the type of data used by crop farmers when deciding about production and about their hedging strategy. Rooted in the classic agency framework, the proposed hedge ratio reflects the context of both the crop farmer's decision and the crop farmer's contractual relationships in the marketing channel. An empirical illustration of the Dutch ware potato sector and its futures market in Amsterdam over the period 1971–2003 reveals that the time‐varying optimal hedge ratio decreased from 0.34 in 1971 to 0.24 in 2003. The hedging effectiveness, according to this ratio, is 39%. These estimates conform better with farmers’ interest in using futures contracts for hedging purposes than the much higher estimates obtained when price risk minimisation is the only objective considered.     

基于建设湖北省区域物流系统的中小企业套期保值实证研究

建设湖北省区域物流系统,期货市场的发展不容忽视。湖北省中小企业在利用期货市场套期保值的功能发展自己的过程中,一方面获得了显著的成效,但同时也暴露出人才匮乏、风险管理能力较差、政府服务功能不完善等问题,本文提出,从政府、期货公司、中小企业和高等院校各方共同着手,为中小企业更有效利用这一重要的市场工具搭建区域物流的服务平台,为湖北省实施的在中部率先崛起战略、建设区域物流中心服务。     

基于期货套期保值策略的电价风险防范研究

作为一种有效的风险管理工具和交易手段,电力期贷的引入不仅给电力市场参与者提供了在发电量或负荷变化时获利的机会,同时规避了由于实时市场电价的波动给双方带来的风险。合约双方可以利用电力期贷合约进行套期保值,更好地防范和控制风险。本文研究了使风险最小化的最佳套期保值率,并进行了分析说明。最后结合中国的具体情况探讨了电力期贷今后在国内的发展。     

汇率风险套期比率确定方法的比较与评析

套期比率确定方法可大致分为基于回归技术和基于均值/方差理论的套期比率确定方法两类。采用新的计量分析工具来研究不完备市场中的套期保值,以及带“摩擦”的金融市场中的套期保值,将会成为现代套期保值理论新的理论领域。     

ROBUST BOUNDS FOR FORWARD START OPTIONS

We consider the problem of finding a model‐free upper bound on the price of a forward start straddle with payoff . The bound depends on the prices of vanilla call and put options with maturities T₁ and T₂ , but does not rely on any modeling assumptions concerning the dynamics of the underlying. The bound can be enforced by a super‐replicating strategy involving puts, calls, and a forward transaction. We find an upper bound, and a model which is consistent with T₁ and T₂ vanilla option prices for which the model‐based price of the straddle is equal to the upper bound. This proves that the bound is best possible. For lognormal marginals we show that the upper bound is at most 30% higher than the Black–Scholes price. The problem can be recast as finding the solution to a Skorokhod embedding problem with nontrivial initial law so as to maximize .     

Do hedge funds time market tail risk? Evidence from option-implied tail risk

This paper focuses on an unexplored dimension of fund managers’ timing ability: Market-wide tail risk implied by information in options markets. Constructing the option-implied tail risk, we investigate whether hedge fund managers can strategically time the tail risk through adjusting their exposure to changes of it. Using an extensive sample of equity-oriented hedge funds, we find strong evidence of tail risk timing ability of hedge fund managers. Furthermore, tail risk timing ability brings significant economic value to investors. Top-ranked funds outperform bottom-ranked funds by 5–7% annually after adjusting for risk factors. Our results are robust to various robustness checks.