沪深300股指期货仿真交易价格风险实证分析

本文拓展了股指期货无套利区间定价模型,对沪深300股指期货仿真交易的定价进行了实证检验,并对两岸三地同品种、同时段的股指期货进行了比较分析。从无套利价格区间、期—现联动性和波动性等方面深入分析,发现沪深300股指期货仿真交易存在较严重的实际价格与无套利价格背离现象。分析认为,虚拟资金、无风险套利机制缺失和股票现货大牛市等是价格背离的重要原因。     

One-Sample Bayesian Predictive Interval of Future Ordered Observations for the Pareto Distribution

Nigm et al. (2003, statistics 37: 527–536) proposed Bayesian method to obtain predictive interval of future ordered observation Y _(j) (r < j≤ n ) based on the right type II censored samples Y ₍₁₎ < Y ₍₂₎ < ... < Y _(r) from the Pareto distribution. If some of Y ₍₁₎ < ... < Y _(r-1) are missing or false due to artificial negligence of typist or recorder, then Nigm et al.’s method may not be an appropriate choice. Moreover, the conditional probability density function (p.d.f.) of the ordered observation Y _(j) (r < j ≤ n ) given Y ₍₁₎ <Y ₍₂₎ < ... < Y _(r) is equivalent to the conditional p.d.f. of Y _(j) (r < j ≤ n ) given Y _(r). Therefore, we propose another Bayesian method to obtain predictive interval of future ordered observations based on the only ordered observation Y _(r), then compares the length of the predictive intervals when using the method of Nigm et al. (2003, statistics 37: 527–536) and our proposed method. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate these results.     

Estimating and Testing Process Precision with Presence of Gauge Measurement Errors

Process capability indices have been widely used in the manufacturing industry. Those capability indices, quantifying process potential and performance, are important for any successful quality improvement activities and quality program implementation. Because of the simplicity and easy of understanding, the precision index C_p has gained its popularity for measuring process consistency. However, the quality of data on the process characteristics relies very much on the gauge measurement. Conclusions about capability of the process just only based on the single numerical value of the index are not reliable. In this paper, we not only conduct the performance of the index C_p with gauge measurement errors, but also present adjusted confidence interval bounds and critical values for capability testing purpose of C_p with unavoidable measurement errors. Our research would help practitioners to determine whether the factory processes meet the capability requirement, and make more reliable decisions.     

Isotonic estimators of monotone densities and distribution functions: basic facts

We present short proofs of some basic results from isotonic regression theory. A straightforward argument is given to show that the left continuous version of the concave majorant of the empirical distribution function maximizes the likelihood function f↦f (X,)… f (X _n ) within the class of non-increasing densities. Similarly, it is shown that the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of the distribution function of interval censored data has an interpretation in terms of the left derivative of a convex minor ant. Finally, a short proof is given to show that the number of vertices of the concave major ant of the uniform empirical distribution function is asymptotically normal with asymptotic mean and variance both equal to log n .     

Public Preferences for Hydrogen Buses: Comparing Interval Data, OLS and Quantile Regression Approaches

We use a quantile regression (QR) approach to analyse contingent valuation estimates of public willingness to pay (WTP) for the air and noise pollution reductions associated with the introduction of hydrogen buses in London. QR results show that variables that were not significant in interval regression or ordinary least squares regression become significant at certain quantiles along the WTP distribution. In addition, the determinants of WTP at the lower tail of the distribution differ from those at the higher end of the distribution. Our findings illustrate the usefulness of quantile regression methods for analysing contingent valuation data, enhancing our understanding of the determinants of willingness to pay.     

总量均衡区间及其对通货膨胀与通货紧缩的"放大"效应

现代市场经济运行中由于供给方调整供给量须耗费调节成本,因而传统分析中的"总量均衡中心点"两侧便分别存在着"低位临界点"与"高位临界点",这两点界定了一个特殊的总量均衡区间.总量均衡区间的存在将对通货膨胀与通货紧缩产生一种特殊的"放大"效应,从而对宏观经济运行与调控产生诸多负面影响.对此须予以充分关注,并采取必要措施加以应对.     

航天器地面测试供电系统间隙工作机理分析

针对航天器在地面加、断电试验过程中,单机设备发生间隙振荡故障机理进行了分 析。理论分析和地面模拟试验验证结果显示,由于地面供电系统的等效电容和电阻过大,供 电线路与单机内的DC-DC变换器固有的欠压锁定（UVLO）回差不匹配,是导致出现间隙工作 状态的主要原因。通过实验验证间隙工作的存在,给出了一些解决问题的建议。分析结论为 综合解决航天器地面测试中多次出现的故障现象提供了理论分析支撑。     

基于IAHP和信息熵的粮食可持续发展综合评价——以黑龙江省为例

本文基于指标体系构建原则构建了我国粮食可持续发展评价指标体系,通过将主观的区间层次分析法与客观的信息熵法相结合,建立了综合确权评价模型,并应用该模型对黑龙江省不同时期的粮食可持续发展状况进行了综合评价,对黑龙江省粮食综合生产能力及其组成部分的变动趋势进行了动态分析。结果表明,黑龙江省粮食可持续发展水平呈逐年上升的趋势。     

时间间隔何时能够提高在线评论的有用性感知——基于归因理论的视角

文章从归因理论的视角出发,探索了购买与评论间的时间间隔与产品类型（物质性产品Vs体验性产品）如何相互作用以影响评论的有用性感知。通过将产品分为物质性产品和体验性产品,文章运用实验检验了时间间隔对不同产品类型的评论影响作用产生的不同作用。结果表明,对于体验型产品来说,时间间隔近（Vs远）可以提高评论的有用性感知;而对于物质型产品来说,时间间隔近（Vs远）可以降低评论的有用性感知。除此之外,实验结果也证实归因倾向中介于时间间隔与评论有用性感知。但是时间间隔对评论有用性的影响还会受到评论效价的调节,时间间隔只会改变正面评论的有用性感知,但是并不能显著影响负面评论。研究结论有助于深入理解阅读者对在线评论的有用性判断的反应,并为在线零售商提供了一个更好利用和维护在线产品评论提高新的视角。