The house price determination process: Rational expectations with a spatial context

Applying the rational expectations hypothesis, this essay models the current value of a house as the conditional expectation of the discounted stream of housing services accruing to the owner of the house. The value of housing services is determined by neighborhood effects as well as the physical attributes of the property itself. In the existing hedonic literature, future transactions have not been utilized to describe neighborhood effects. The rational expectations asset pricing model in this study accounts for expected future neighborhood effects as well as observed current neighborhood effects. The reduced form of the rational expectations model is a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model with two spatial lags. After employing the generalized method of moments (GMM) in estimating the spatial asset pricing model, I find that both expected future transactions and prior transactions in the neighborhood are significant. The inclusion of expected future transaction prices in the neighborhood takes into account the influence of expected changes in the community and factors these potential changes into the current house price. This is consistent with forward-looking households. The forward-looking model generates superior out-of-sample prediction performance relative to both the conventional hedonic model without considering neighborhood effects or the standard spatial hedonic model including only past transactions.     

Price competition in a differentiated products duopoly under network effects

We examine price competition under product-specific network effects, in a duopoly where the products are differentiated both horizontally and vertically. We emphasize the role of consumers’ expectations formation. When expectations are not influenced by prices, the market may be shared but shares must be equal unless product qualities differ or one firm, possibly even the low-quality one, may capture the entire market. When expectations are influenced by prices, which would be the case when there is commitment, competition becomes more intense and the high-quality firm tends to capture a larger market share. Under strong network effects there is a continuum of equilibria and the higher the prices, the smaller the difference between those prices can be. Requiring continuity of expectations, however, delivers a unique equilibrium where one firm captures the entire market.     

ICT growth effects at the industry level: A comparison between the US and the EU

This is an empirical study on the growth impact of Information and Communication Technologies using industry-level data for the US and the EU industries over the period 1980-2000. A panel data approach is employed to estimate the ICT effect using the system GMM and the pooled mean group panel data estimators. The results vary depending on the period, the region, and the type of industry considered. The GMM estimates suggest a significant ICT effect on growth during the 90s both in the US and in the EU. This effect for the EU was strong in the early 90s and weakened afterwards, as opposed to the US where it strengthened in the late 90s. The results of the pooled mean group estimator confirm that the long run growth contribution of ICT was significantly positive in the industries of both regions and over the entire period 1980-2000. However, it seems that the productivity effects of ICT are mainly present in the industries which are either ICT producers or heavy ICT users.     

Embedding effects in choice experiment valuations of environmental preservation projects

This paper addresses the question, whether attribute values derived from a CE study of one nature restoration and preservation project depend on the overall scale of nature preservation activities in which it is embedded. A split-sample CE study was undertaken in which a particular nature preservation project was evaluated in three plausible and strictly different embedding contexts. Respondents' attention was drawn to a varying number of forthcoming substitute preservation projects to be implemented prior to the one in question. Results show that while WTP for the project in focus is sensitive to the presentation of substitute projects as such, there does not seem to be any clear and unidirectional relationship between WTP and the number of substitute projects. Furthermore, effects vary across the project's attributes.     

Combining ecological and recreational aspects in national park management: A choice experiment application

Increasing pressure to diversify development of national parks emphasizes the need for new and relevant information for park management decisions. In this paper, we use choice experiment to value different tradeoffs that evolved in park development scenarios. Specifically, we examine which kind of development profiles are worth considering and which paths not to follow. We focus on biodiversity and recreational services provided by Oulanka National Park in Finland, which represents a popular recreation site attracting a large number of visitors. The increase of biodiversity was the most highly valued feature by the respondent national park visitors. Thus, our results show that the protection of biodiversity and recreational and tourism use of national parks can cause conflicting welfare effects if managed in inappropriate ways. Increasing the number of visitors, expanding present resting places, constructing new resting places and an intense increase in information boards, especially if combined with shrinking biodiversity, are welfare reducing managerial actions in national parks.     

区域要素规模效率及其影响因素的效应机理研究

利用随机前沿超越对数生产函数对我国区域要素规模效率的时变趋势、地域差异进行研究,并通过非效率函数对其宏观影响因素的效应进行了分析。总体看来,考虑影响因素后的效率估计值更为准确：1986—2005年的时变效率在外部环境因素变革的冲击下虽出现了波动情况,但总体上均呈现上升趋势;东部与中西部的效率变化趋势一致,但进入1990年代后东部的平均效率增长速度明显要快于中西部,且效率的东西部推移逐步扩大;另一方面,东西部区域内部的差异均呈现收敛趋势,且东部比中西部区域要显著的多。城市化、工业化、专业化、创新活动、人口素质等因素在不同地域不同发展时期对于效率均体现出不同的影响效应,因而,针对不同地区、发展阶段特征和区域特质其区域政策和发展模式的选择也要有所侧重。     

初次分配效率与公平失衡的“连锁效应”分析

改革开放以来,我国国民收入初次分配呈现高效率,低公平运行状态。这是一种失衡状态,这种失衡将引致一系列连锁反应,对经济运行和社会发展产生不利后果。在初次分配领域之内,初次分配的高效率是一种以低公平为代价所取得的畸形效率,而初次分配低公平是效率提高的制约瓶颈;在初次分配领域之外,初次分配失衡导致再分配公平调节乏力,再分配不能解决初次分配中的低公平问题,从而使得社会整体的公平程度很低;最终对经济和社会发展造成不利影响,使得经济发展出现消费断层和内需不足,并使社会发展面临和谐危机和许多潜在风险。     

集聚经济一定有利于产业国际化吗——基于中国省域制造业的实证分析

本文运用我国29个省份制造业19个二位数行业2005—2008年的面板数据实证分析了产业集聚效应对产业国际化的影响以及这一影响与行业特性、区域特性的关系。研究结果显示:从总体样本来看,专业化经济对产业国际化具有显著正影响;而竞争效应和多样化集聚效应对产业国际化具有负效应。不同行业的影响方向、大小及机理与行业特性高度相关;专业化集聚对资本密集型产业和高技术密集型产业国际化的正效应要大于劳动密集和中低技术密集型产业,劳动密集型产业和中低技术密集型产业的集聚已经出现一定程度的劳动拥挤效应。     

Cross-border relationships and performance: Revisiting a complex linkage

Existing export performance models do not explicitly address the role of the importer in achieving economic success. This research explores importer role performance as a mediator between relationship quality and export performance, and uncovers the darker side of cross-border relationships by showing that relationship quality has concomitant opposite effects on export performance. The findings augment the relational paradigm to export performance by the demonstrating the vital importance of the importer role and by discriminating and explaining the positive and negative influences of interfirm relationship quality. The study uses structural equations modeling with data from two random samples of French and Slovene exporters to test hypotheses.     

法律判决经济价值效应的金融学分析

法律判决不仅体现了法律对当事人在事件中关系的判断与处置,也会由此产生对当事人乃至全社会的经济价值效应。对于前者,判决体现的是法律的判断;对于后者,传统理论普遍认为是一个零和游戏。然而,从金融学的资产定价理论出发,却发现法律判决的社会经济价值效应并非零和,而且这些价值不仅影响了社会经济活动的行为判断,还对某些资产定价的传统理论提出了挑战。