Aid econometrics: Lessons from a stochastic growth model

This paper evaluates the standard empirical methods employed in the study of foreign aid, when the data generating process is a calibrated stochastic growth model in which aid recipients make optimal investment and consumption decisions. When recipients receive a stochastic flow of aid and wish to smooth consumption, standard methods fail to distinguish between the response to transient and permanent aid shocks, and hence yield misleading results concerning the object of interest to policy makers: the long-run impact of aid.     

Remanufacturing for the Circular Economy: An Examination of Consumer Switching Behavior

For the circular economy to be tenable, consumers need to not only return products after use, but also purchase products that are remanufactured. However, research finds that consumers have a poor opinion of remanufactured products and are typically not prepared to adopt them. Thus, development of the circular economy is dependent upon deeper understanding of consumers’ attitudes and behaviors. Research typically considers either micro‐level or macro‐level factors when assessing consumer perceptions of remanufactured products. The current research incorporates macro‐level factors of price, government incentives and environmental benefits with the moderating influence of micro‐level consumer attitudes to examine consumers’ intention to switch from purchasing new products to remanufactured products. The findings suggest that a consumer's attitude toward remanufactured products is an important moderating factor predicting consumer switching behavior to remanufactured products. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Configurations of business strategy and marketing channels for e-commerce and traditional retail formats: A Qualitative Comparison Analysis (QCA) in sporting goods retailing

This article applies a configurational approach to study the fit between retail format, business strategy, and multi-channel setup. Its empirical material consists of five case studies, and a data set of 74 sporting goods retailers in Sweden. Our results show that a retailer can create strategic advantages when its multi-channel setup fits with its business strategy, and that retail format is important for explaining differences in growth and profit, the former being assigned to e-commerce and the latter to physical stores. Moreover, the study reveals that to some extent online channels also have positive performance implications for physical store retailers.     

What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

Despite the widespread belief that Japan’s “Great Stagnation” in the 1990s is due to the financial dysfunction after the collapse of asset price bubbles, Hayashi and Prescott (2002) argue that its main cause is a slowdown in total factor productivity growth, using a calibrated neoclassical growth model. The present paper aims to fill this gap by estimating a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model augmented with a financial accelerator mechanism and associated financial shocks. Our estimation results show that even in the presence of the financial shocks an adverse neutral technology shock mainly induced the Great Stagnation and that the rate of neutral technological change is strongly correlated with all enterprises’ financial position in the Tankan. Based on these findings, the paper argues that the Great Stagnation was caused by an adverse neutral technology shock that is likely to represent a tightening of firms’ financing, which induced reduction of R&D investment and misallocation of resources as indicated in previous literature.     

养老保险统筹账户：基于可持续运行角度的参数效应研究

文章针对城镇职工基本养老保险统筹账户面临的问题，重建了可持续运行能力的衡量指标。以现行制度为基础构建模型，利用精算方法预测统筹账户收支规模及平均替代率的变化趋势。在对退休年龄、在岗职工的平均工资和参保人数对账户可持续性造成综合影响进行比较静态分析之后发现：提高参保率是较为得力的措施。同时文章还借鉴国外经验提出了相应的政策建议。     

Putting the Cart before the Horse? Re-Examining the Relationship between Domestic Savings and Economic Growth in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries

In addition to the standard Granger causality, this paper employs the Toda–Yamamoto approach and instantaneous causality test to examine the causal relationship between domestic savings and economic growth in 10 sub-Saharan African countries utilizing time series data. Findings from both the standard Granger causality and Toda–Yamamoto approach are consistent and robust only in five countries where domestic savings and economic growth are completely independent in three countries. For the remaining two, causality runs from savings to growth. However, for the other five countries, findings produced from both causality tests are grossly inconsistent and mixed leaving us under a quandary although the Toda–Yamamoto test is often reliable on account of its ability to avoid misleading results associated with the asymptotic nature of the standard Granger causality test. Our findings further reveal an instantaneous unidirectional causality from domestic savings to economic growth for only Benin, Mali, and South Africa suggesting that savings-led growth is rapid for these countries. We conclude based on our findings that the myriad of ‘evidence’ in earlier studies on savings-growth causality should be treated with caution given that methodological differences can produce misleading results with the potential of misdirecting policy.     

安徽省税种结构变动的经济增长效应

根据安徽省1994年—2012年的样本数据,运用Cobb-Douglas生产函数理论模型,对税种结构变动与经济增长关系进行实证分析。结果表明:增值税占总税收比重的增加会降低人均生产总值,营业税、企业所得税、个人所得税、农业各税占总税收比重的增加会提高人均生产总值,资源税的经济效应不显著。因此,应该进一步优化现行税制结构:有序推进"营改增",完善中央与地方的税收分享体制;提高所得税的比重,增强其收入再分配作用;加快推进资源税改革,促进经济可持续发展;适度调节农业各税,培育农村大市场。     

京津冀城市可持续发展效率动态测评及比较研究——基于超效率CCR-DEA模型和Malmquist指数的度量

本文借助超效率 CCR-DEA 模型和 Malmquist 指数，对 2008~2015 年京津冀 13 个城市的可持续发展效率进行了动态测评和对应项分解。研究结果表明：（1）北京与津冀城市的可持续发展效率极为不平衡，北京大幅领先于津冀城市并有逐年扩大的趋势；津冀城市可持续发展效率的差距有逐年缩小的趋势；（2）京津冀城市作为一个整体其可持续发展效率在提高，但各城市可持续发展效率意义上的纯技术效率几乎没有提升；（3）京津冀各城市投入--产出系统虽处于可持续发展效率意义上的规模经济阶段，但不具有持续性。未来京津冀三地应充分利用建设雄安国家新区的战略性历史机遇，统一认识，密切合作，促进京津冀城市经济、社会和资源环境的协调可持续发展。     

Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data

Forecasting GDP growth is important and necessary for Chinese government to set GDP growth target. To fully and efficiently utilize macroeconomic and financial information, this paper attempts to forecast China's GDP growth using dynamic predictors and mixed-frequency data. The dynamic factor model is first applied to select dynamic predictors among large amount of monthly macroeconomic and daily financial data and then the mixed data sampling regression is applied to forecast quarterly GDP growth based on the selected monthly and daily predictors. Empirical results show that forecasts using dynamic predictors and mixed-frequency data have better accuracy comparing to traditional forecasting methods. Moreover, forecasts with leads and forecast combination can further improve forecast performance.     

Determinants of workers’ remittances: An empirical investigation for a panel of eleven developing Asian economies

We explore the key motives of migrant workers’ remittances from abroad for 11 major Asian migrant‐sending countries. Using panel regressions, we find that relative higher growth rate, interest rate and capital market returns of home over the host, investment, financial deepening at home have significant impact on remittance inflows into Asia, along with higher per capita incomes and international crude oil prices. With incorporation of per capita incomes and lagged impact of remittances, we observe an emergence of consumption motives to remit. Therefore, we conclude that both investment and altruistic motives are the driving forces for remittances inflows into the Asian economies.