基于信用配置的中国基金公司选股策略优化研究——来自层次分析法的理论与实证

传统的选股策略忽视信用配置原则,导致基金公司风险与收益之间无法有效匹配,不利于证券市场的稳定发展.对此,基于信用配置原则,运用层次分析法设计了基金公司选股策略的评价指标体系,构建了基金公司选股策略的评价模型,并以此为基础,选取相关样本股票,对基金公司选股策略进行了实证分析.研究发现,基于信用配置的股票组合资产,其收益明显高于大盘指数,足以说明该选股策略具有显著的优化效应.     

Are ‘New’ Donors Different? Comparing the Allocation of Bilateral Aid Between nonDAC and DAC Donor Countries

Major DAC donors are widely criticized for weak targeting of aid, selfish aid motives, and insufficient coordination. The emergence of an increasing number of new donors may further complicate the coordination of international aid efforts. At the same time, it is open to question whether new donors (many of which were aid recipients until recently) are more altruistic and provide better targeted aid according to need and merit. Project-level data on aid by new donors, as collected by the AidData initiative, allow for empirical analyses comparing the allocation behavior of new versus old donors. We employ Probit and Tobit models and test for significant differences in the distribution of aid by new and old donors across recipient countries. We find that, on average, new donors care less for recipient need than old donors. New and old donors behave similarly in several respects, however. They disregard merit by not taking the level of corruption in recipient countries into account. Concerns that commercial self-interest distorts the allocation of aid seem to be overblown for both groups.     

A cause for policy concern: the expansion of household credit in middle-income economies

This article discusses the significance of the recent growth in household credit across a range of middle-income economies. This growth is understood primarily as a result of policy, including the promotion of individual borrowing as a means to fund access to housing, education and health. A formal model of credit extension and allocation is developed, establishing that consumption lending makes a comparatively stronger contribution to aggregate profitability as well as financial fragility than production lending. Consumption lending may be understood to create distinctive endogenous tendencies to credit-market instability. The findings point to the need for a critical reconsideration of reliance on this lending for social and macroeconomic policy.     

投资收益不确定、投资期限与资产配置的动态调整策略

结合退休计划问题,本文在考虑了投资收益的不确定性后,在概率约束的框架下重新考察了不同投资期限下的最优资产配置问题,将传统的退休目标表示方法如"70@65"拓展为"70%的70@65",得出了不同投资期限下的最优资产配置策略。我们的研究表明,投资者越年轻则应持有更多的风险资产,并且,我们给出了随着年龄的增长,对资产配置进行的动态调整的可操作的具体路径,在理论上和实践上,特别是退休计划上具有一定的意义和运用价值。     

Influence Allocation Methods in Group Decision Support Systems

Influence allocation processes are voting and opinion aggregating methods that allow members to distribute some or all of their decision making influence to others in the group in order to exploit not only the group's knowledge of the alternatives, but its knowledge of itself. Only with the common use of group decision support systems (GDSS) has their use become practical. In this paper we reconsider SPAN, an influence allocation process introduced by MacKinnon (1966a). Experimental comparison shows SPAN to be significantly better at selecting a correct option from a set of options than two common voting methods. An alternative influence allocation process that we call RCON (Rational Consensus), is based on a weighting method proposed by DeGroot (1974) and has been explicated as a normative standard for combining opinion by Lehrer and Wagner (1981). The judgmental inputs to SPAN would appear to be logically related to those for RCON. Submitting the SPAN inputs from the experiment, transformed in this logical way, to the RCON process results in somewhat better performance than with SPAN. However, evidence indicated that the two methods are conceptually and psychologically sufficiently different that an experimental comparison is needed between them.     

城乡建设用地指标纵向配置逻辑与执行偏差研究

研究目的：从中央—省—市三层级政府的关系切入，分析中央到省、省到市的纵向指标配置逻辑对指标执行偏差的影响，以期为国土空间规划的指标配置与执行提供参考。研究方法：多元线性回归分析法、面板数据回归分析法。研究结果：（1）中央基于区域均衡偏好往省的指标配置对省级执行偏差的影响没有得到证据支持；（2）省往市的策略性分配能够减轻省级执行偏差，但与经济体量不相符的指标错配会加剧市级执行偏差；（3）省级政府在央地关系中起到承上启下的中间政府作用，中央的指标配置能通过省级的策略性分配来减轻偏差，但省级的指标配置则面临着更少的容错空间。研究结论：在国土空间规划的指标配置与执行过程中，应强化省级政府基于本地信息优势的策略性分配能力，加强指标配置的科学性，此外，应进一步向省分权并制度化，在推动指标高效利用的同时维护中央政策的权威性。     

基于货主满意度的铁路空车调配方案研究

通过分析铁路发展现代物流的必要性以及空车调配对提高货运服务质量的重要性,在对比以运输生产为中心的传统模式下空车调配模型的基础上,建立了以货主满意度为最大目标的多目标空车调配模糊规划模型。最后,通过一个算例验证模型的有效性。     

Win32平台下缓冲区溢出模型及其对抗策略

文章引入了Serv_UMDTM漏洞实例,分析了该漏洞的特点,构建了对它的攻击程序。通过总结对此漏洞的攻击过程,提出了Windows系统下缓冲区溢出攻击的通用模型,并介绍了模型中各个模块的具体功能以及依据此模型进行攻击的一般流程,利用此模型建立了Real实例漏洞的攻击程序,展示了攻击模型的正确性和指导性,最后针对此模型提出了缓冲区溢出漏洞的防治方法和策略。     

Proposal for a Contingency Debt Sustainability Framework

We argue that the New Debt Sustainability Framework (NDSF) of the World Bank and IMF is centered on the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) to suit the aid allocation mechanism of the International Development Association (IDA), but fails to deal effectively with the economic vulnerability of low-income countries. Instead, we propose a Contingency Debt Sustainability Framework (CDSF), which identifies the sources of vulnerability and compensates for exogenous shock and trend factors. Without giving rise to significant moral hazard implications, the CDSF is thus suitable to effectively shield low-income countries from the main external causes undermining their achievement of debt sustainability.     

河南省地区经济差距的历史分析

改革开放近30年来,河南省各地区居民的收入水平普遍得到较大幅度的提高,但各地区之间的经济发展差距却在逐步拉大。一方面,郑州、焦作等依托省会城市或者资源优势经济得到较快发展;另一方面,信阳、驻马店等革命老区或者传统平原农业区经济增速缓慢。日益扩大的地区经济差距显然会影响资源配置效率及长期经济增长的质量,对整个河南经济发展的的可持续性带来不利影响,甚至会影响社会的安定团结。因此对河南省地区差距的度量研究显得尤为必要,但这方面的实证研究往往停留在简单的数据列举上,缺乏全面性和深入的定量分析。笔者试图以近几年河南省统计局发布的年鉴数据为基础,对河南省的地区差距作出较为全面的测度。