农业劳动日工价对农民收入水平影响的实证研究——基于协整和向量自回归模型

选取1978年-2008年全国农业劳动日工价和农民人均纯收入的时间序列数据,通过基于VAR模型的协整分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解的有机结合进行研究,发现两序列间存在长期均衡。对标准化协整方程和误差校正模型的分析表明,抽样区间的农民人均纯收入增长对农业劳动日工价形成了长期的、稳定的依赖,且后者是前者的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应分析和方差分解均显示,来自劳动日工价在过去三十年内对农民人均纯收入产生了持续性的贡献。实证结果表明,农业劳动日工价与农民人均纯收入具有长期稳定的关系,需要逐步提高偏低的农业劳动日工价。     

我国经济增长对二氧化碳排放影响的实证分析——基于一般均衡模型的分解方法

文章基于动态的一般均衡模型分析框架，利用中国1997--2040年的宏观经济数据和CO2排量数据，试图回答以下两个问题：第一，中国未来三十年的经济增长对CO2污染排量会有怎样的影响？第二，如何制定合理的政策实现中国政府承诺的CO2减排量？研究结论表明，如果实行正确的控污措施，在未来的30年里中国经济增长将不会造成CO2排量大量增加。通过对CO2排放量进行Divisia分解所得的结构效应和技术效应显示，污染排放量的有效控制可以通过重点减排活动、发展清洁燃料产品以及改进其使用技术得以实现。     

Untersuchung über die Kränklichkeit in den staatlich unterstützten Krankenkassen Schwedens

Abstract

Von den Vorschriften, die für die staatlich unterstützten Krankenkassen gelten, werde ich hier nur so viel mitteilen, was für den Aufbau der mathematiscben Formeln notwendig ist, sowie einige Tatsachen, die bei Vergleichen mit anderen Kränklichkeitsmaterialien von Bedeutung sind. Im übrigen wird auf das Gesetz über Krankenkassen hingewiesen.     

Pricing options on discrete realized variance with partially exact and bounded approximations

We derive efficient and accurate analytic approximation formulas for pricing options on discrete realized variance (DRV) under affine stochastic volatility models with jumps using the partially exact and bounded (PEB) approximations. The PEB method is an enhanced extension of the conditioning variable approach commonly used in deriving analytic approximation formulas for pricing discrete Asian style options. By adopting either the conditional normal or gamma distribution approximation based on some asymptotic behaviour of the DRV of the underlying asset price process, we manage to obtain PEB approximation formulas that achieve a high level of numerical accuracy in option values even for short-maturity options on DRV.     

中国国债发行规模影响因素的实证研究

基于VAR模型,并运用协整检验、方差分解、向量自回归误差修正模型的计量经济分析方法,对我国国债规模的影响因素进行实证分析.实证结果显示,我国国债发行规模与国内生产总值、财政赤字、国债还本付息额、居民储蓄之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,影响国债规模的主要因素是国内生产总值、居民储蓄、国债发行规模本身、财政赤字.     

中国黄金市场期货与现货价格关系实证研究

根据向量自回归模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,借助协整关系和格兰杰因果关系,构建双变量EC-EGARCH模型,对我国黄金期货市场与现货市场的价格关系实证.结果显示,黄金期货与现货之间不存在相互影响关系;协整残差是好的解释变量;杠杆效应和溢出效应不明显;期货市场价格发现功能有待进一步完善.     

具有约束的均值——半偏差投资组合优化模型

这篇文章以Markowitz的组合投资决策模型为基础,针对该模型以及其改进模型中风险计量方法的缺陷,提出了以半偏差测度风险的思想,并建立了相应的组合投资优化模型。     

Trends in Total and Subgroup Income Inequality in the Singaporean Workforce

This paper examines the trends in income inequality in Singapore using Labour Force Survey data from 1974 to 1998. Trends in inequality within and between age, educational and occupational groups are studied using the Theil inequality index. A new method based on the Gini coefficient is also utilized to explore the nature of inter-temporal variation in within-group inequality. Any increase within age-group inequality is due to changing income shares, while the decrease in educational-group inequality comes from decreases in within-group inequality. The contribution of intereducation inequality has also increased over the years, as has inter-occupational inequality.     

Authorized variance analysis with consumption rate

On the base of budget or plan information, comparing with actual results, making variance analysis, finding real reasons behind variance, this is important way of control and also important function of budget. However, without consideration of changes of environment, there are some limitations for static variance analysis with benchmark of plan data. Adjusting for benchmark according to actual condition, then doing variance analysis, these will improve utilization of variance analysis. Adjusted benchmark is often known as authorized cost/profit. For different understanding for authority concept, with RCA＇s （the abbreviation for Resource Consumption Accounting） view and numerical examples, this paper brings out the concept of consumption rate variance to promoting deeper understanding and analyzing reasons behind variance.