中央银行票据:终将消逝的政策工具

本文对我国2002年以来发行中央银行票据的背景和调控原理进行了分析.从我国货币政策和汇率政策协调的角度看,中央银行票据的发行是这两大政策冲突的表现,是货币当局试图同时实现人民币内外币值稳定的无奈之举.作者解释了中央银行票据无力承担主流政策工具的理由,并认为国债在未来将最终代替中央银行票据成为货币当局操作的主要政策工具.     

中国证券监管稽查效率较低的原因及其改进对策

本文通过对我国监管稽查发展历史与现存问题的分析,提出应通过适当扩大证监会的执法权限、加强相关部门的协调与沟通、强化对政府监管部门的监督以及注重法制内容的实效性和可操作性等措施改进与提高证券监管稽查的效率.     

我国上市公司金融衍生产品交易风险及其监管

论文首先分析了金融衍生产品交易的特点,指出其蕴含巨大潜在风险。然后对上市公司金融衍生产品的会计计量监管、信息披露监管以及法律制度监管三个方面进行分析,加强对金融衍生产品风险进行控制。最后针对美国金融危机以及中国部分上市公司参与金融衍生产品交易的惨痛教训,提出我国应该大力发展国际一流的信用评级机构,大力发展国际一流的金融衍生产品交易市场。     

风险投资的控制权分配与双边道德风险激励

在风险投资过程中,由于信息的不对称以及不确定因素的存在,努力的不对称性和对剩余索取权的安排使得风险投资家与创业企业家都有动机谋求私人收益,从而导致双边道德风险的形成。文章回顾了关于风险投资中双边道德风险的研究,为了克服单纯契约工具都不能完全解决风险投资中双边道德风险的问题,指出将可转换证券和控制权相机安排结合起来,可以为双方提供激励,解决风险投资中的双边道德风险问题。     

Failure to learn from failure: The 2008 mortgage crisis as a déjà vu of the mortgage meltdown of 1994

This article traces the developments in the market for residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) during the period 1970–2008. Drawing on an analysis of trade publications, business press, and interviews with practitioners, it shows that an MBS market meltdown in 1994 provided clear signals of problems with MBS. The market participants did not re-evaluate their use of risk management tools or adjust security design in response to the 1994 crisis, suggesting a lack of understanding of the implications of the crisis. The 1994 meltdown showed that MBS were vulnerable to systematic risks and that these risks could precipitate an MBS market crash. Furthermore, the 1994 meltdown demonstrated that large-scale investment in MBS could affect the primary mortgage market, thereby rendering the MBS risks unpredictable. After 1994, MBS investment shifted to MBS backed by mortgages with default risk – a development that led to the crash of 2008. By drawing parallels between the 1994 and 2008 crises, this article shows how the MBS market failed to self-correct. The results suggest that financial market participants do not always incorporate relevant information in their decision-making and that market participants have difficulties in both foreseeing the effect of financial innovations on markets and interpreting these effects.     

VIX futures term structure and the expectations hypothesis

Tests of the expectations hypothesis reveal that the slope of the VIX futures term structure predicts the direction but not the magnitude of the evolution of the short-end of the curve, but predicts neither the direction nor the magnitude of short-term changes in the long-end of the curve. Relative value seeking spread trades, constructed to exploit such violations, deliver excess returns with annualized Sharpe ratios equal or greater than those of volatility-writing strategies deployed by VIX ETN's for a majority of the 32 spread trade combinations tested. I demonstrate that profits from beta-neutral variations of the spread trades, which are not compensation for taking on equity downside risk by design, are propagated by inflows of capital into VIX futures markets, after controlling for factors that measure changes in the availability of hedge fund capital, risk appetite, and momentum. At the heart of profits, and by extension the term structure anomalies, is a disproportionally elevated basis propagated by long VIX demand that enters the futures market through ETN channels.     

Interaction between securitization gains and abnormal loan loss provisions: Credit risk retention and fair value accounting

This study investigates whether managers use asset securitization gains to substitute loan loss provision (LLP) management for earnings management, and, if so, whether the percentage of credit risk retained affects such a relationship. The literature provides evidence that managers have used securitization transactions to boost earnings. Using 2001?2014 data for a sample of bank holding companies, I find that managers use securitization gains and LLPs as partial substitutes and that earnings management from securitization gains grows at an increasing rate to substitute income increasing LLP management as the level of risk retention increases. These findings are consistent with the argument that the higher the level of risk retention, the greater the potential impact on achieving earnings targets, given banks’ exercise of discretion over securitization gains through estimation of fair value of retained interest. In addition, I document that the substitution effect between the two tools is non‐existent in the post‐SFAS 166/167 period. Taken together, the findings have timely implications for accounting standards by informing the effect of risk retention that I measure through earnings management techniques. Moreover, my findings provide additional support for improved disclosures on assets‐backed securities.     

证券公司风险监管制度有效性的实证研究

按照国际清算银行(BIS)颁布的新资本充足率规范,以49个中国证券公司实际自营投资组合为样本、采用基于VaR的内部模型法,估算各证券公司自营投资的市场风险和应计提资本,并以之检验中国证券公司新老资本监管制度的有效性.实证结果显示:改革后的2006版资本监管制度比老制度有所改善,但对风险的反映不如内部模型法准确,中国监管制度改革的方向应是采用内部模型法.因主要品种风险调整比例设置偏低,新制度平均低估证券公司自营风险29%,建议监管规则调整上海180指数股票、ST类股票、基金、企业债、可转债等品种的风险调整比例.     

交易所改制对自律监管的挑战与新思考

市场竞争的压力与交易所自身发展的需要,使得交易所公司制改造已成为交易所发展的国际趋势。面对交易所改制所引发的交易所商业利益和公共利益失衡、监管权力滥用、自我上市的利益冲突、滋生金融风险等一系列问题,证券监管机关应当立足本国国情,借鉴成功经验,做出相应制度安排,采取限制交易所所有权取得、转移交易所监管功能等措施,完善内部治理与强化外部监管并重,从而有效消除利益冲突,发挥公司制交易所的组织结构优势。     

Investment Horizon and Repo in the Over‐the‐Counter Market

This paper presents a three‐period model featuring a short‐term investor in the over‐the‐counter bond market. A short‐term investor stores cash because of a need to pay cash at some future date. If a short‐term investor buys bonds, then a deadline for retrieving cash lowers the resale price of bonds for the investor through bilateral bargaining in the bond market. Ex‐ante, this hold‐up problem explains the use of a repo by a short‐term investor, the existence of a haircut, and the vulnerability of a repo market to counterparty risk. This result holds without any uncertainty about bond returns or asymmetric information.