Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War

This article uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China–US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China–US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.     

Economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from China

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in China. Using all listed Chinese companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges as well as 4188 ​M&A deals from the period of 2001–2018, we show that Chinese firms are more likely to make acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty, which contradicts the behavior of US firms. We further show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are less likely than non-SOEs to make acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. SOEs are less likely to use only cash for their acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. These results indicate the prudence of SOEs regarding acquisitions relative to non-SOEs during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. Moreover, acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty are associated with an increase in shareholder wealth for acquirers, and this wealth effect is more pronounced for SOEs.     

Are China’s regional agricultural productivities converging: How and why?

This article tests the hypotheses of convergence to a single level of total factor productivity (TFP), and a steady state of TFP growth rate in China’s agricultural sector. Based on multilateral TFP estimates we found that China’s agricultural sector has rebounded in recent years from a slower TFP growth in the 2005–2007 period. While convergence test results confirm a “catch-up” effect that provinces with lower TFP levels tend to grow faster than others, estimated rates of β convergence are conditional on how we capture the heterogeneity effect across regions. The rates of β convergence range from 0.016 to 0.039 under different model specifications. Estimates show that higher growth rates of educational attainment, R&D, and intermediate goods density (per unit of labor) can enhance TFP growth. Unfortunately, there is no evidence of an overall σ convergence, indicating that TFP levels are not converging except in the South region. It implies that to catch up with leading provinces, it would require extra efforts for those lagging behind by increasing their region-specific research investment, promoting rural educational attainment, and enhancing embodied technical change.     

Agency costs and tax planning when the government is a major Shareholder

In state owned enterprises (SOEs), taxes are a dividend to the controlling shareholder, the state, but a cost to other shareholders. We examine publicly traded firms in China and find significantly lower tax avoidance by SOEs relative to non-SOEs. The differences are pronounced for locally versus centrally-owned SOEs and during the year of SOE term performance evaluations. We link our results to managerial incentives through promotion tests, finding that higher SOE tax rates are associated with higher promotion frequencies of SOE managers. Our results suggest managerial incentives and tax reporting are conditional on the ownership structure of the firm.     

The evolution of corruption and development in transitional economies: Evidence from China

It is widely accepted in the literature, that the level of corruption is negatively and robustly related to economic development. However, skeptics argue that for transitional economies, this relationship may not hold. Economic reform loosens up the control of local officials and can increase corruption; Corruption and per capita income can be positively related. Using panel provincial data of China from 1995 to 2014 on prosecuted cases of corruption, we discover that during the early phase of China’s economic reform (during Zhu Rongji and Hu-Wen administrations), a positive short-run relationship is indeed observed. But, there is a robust negative long-run cointegration relationship between corruption and per capita income. The development of the market economy improves private wage and income in the long-run. The relatively inefficient and low returns to ordinary corruption cannot compete with rising market returns, which lead to dwindling corruption. However, the share of major corruption cases is increasing over time to be able to compete with rising market wages.     

New development: China renews reform of central–local fiscal relations and provides for basic national public services

China’s reform on central–local fiscal reform has slowed down in recent years. The appointment of a new finance minister experienced in local government affairs is expected to renew the reform affirmed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress in late 2017. China has unprecedentedly identified a comprehensive list of 81 national basic public services as entitlements. Eighteen of them are subject to national and local standards, and co-financed by central and local governments. A new cost-sharing method for 10 of these services classifies sub-national jurisdictions into five tiers, in which the central government’s share declines from 80% to 10%. These measures, effective in 2019, aim at creating a ‘harmonious and moderately prosperous society’.     

Motives behind retailers’ post-entry expansion - Evidence from the Chinese luxury fashion market

This study aims to examine the motives behind retailers’ post-entry expansion in foreign markets. Through case studies of eleven participating luxury fashion retailers in China, qualitative data was collected from twenty-two executive interviews. Although their initial market entry was driven by both reactive (push) and proactive (pull) factors, the motives behind their post-entry expansion have become predominantly proactive, especially long-term growth strategies, the ambition to extend their brands and retail formats to more cities, and the experiences gained in entry markets. The desire to optimize the retail store portfolio through multiple channel strategies have slowed down the expansions of physical stores.     

Afraid to travel after COVID-19? Self-protection,coping and resilience against pandemic ‘travel fear’

COVID-19 has generated an unprecedented level of public fear, likely impeding tourism industry recovery after the pandemic is over. This study explores what trigger the public's pandemic ‘travel fear’ and how people impose self-protection, coping and resilience related to travel. The study integrates theories including protection motivation theory, coping and resilience theories to address the research aim. Using a quota sampling, an online survey of 1208 respondents across mainland China was conducted. Results found that threat severity and susceptibility can cause ‘travel fear’, which leads to protection motivation and protective travel behaviors after the pandemic outbreak. Findings also revealed that ‘travel fear’ can evoke different coping strategies, which increases people's psychological resilience and adoption of cautious travel behaviors. Several strategies are provided on how to mitigate people's ‘travel fear’ and encourage travel in a post-COVID-19 world.     

Impacts of increased Chinese imports on Japan’s labor market

Using the Japanese firm/establishment-level census data, we investigate the impact of the Chinese import penetration on employment in Japan. We found negative impacts of the Chinese import penetration on total employment, especially in industries producing competing products to Chinese imports, and a positive impact of the import penetration in the industries from which firms purchase their inputs (upstream import penetration). The negative impacts are mainly driven by firms’ exit from the market while positive impacts are enjoyed by surviving firms. We did not find any significant impacts of the penetration in the industries to which firms sell their products (downstream penetration).     

An Exploratory analysis of flight delay propagation in China

Delay propagation is the flight departure delay caused by the arrival delay of pre-segment flight. Chinese airline market has suffered very poor on-time performance (OTP) in recent years. It is, however, unclear whether delay propagation prevails as one major source for such problem. This study first aims to empirically quantify delay propagation in the Chinese airline market. Specifically, we shed light on heterogenous levels of delay propagations across different airports and airlines. Then, the distinct delay propagation patterns in China are also discussed and compared with other developed airline markets (e.g., the US and Europe). Our estimation is based on OTP data for over 12 million Chinese flights covering the 2015–2017 period. Specifically, it is found that 10 min arrival delay of pre-segment flight within 1 hr before the departure lead to an average of 7.49 mins delay propagation for subsequent departure flight. Arrival delay of earlier pre-segments (1–2 and 2–3 hr before the departure) leads to much less delay propagation, due to longer ground buffer. Chinese airlines arrange longer ground and flight buffer than that of the US airlines to prevent the delay propagation from accumulating along the subsequent flights in a day. Thus, unlike the US market, delay propagation is not the major reason for poor OTP in China. In addition, delay propagation is less prevailing at the Chinese hub airport. This is because China has relied on point-to-point network, which does not require sophisticated schedule coordination. And the local passengers at these Chinese hub airports have higher time value such that the Chinese airlines also try to improve OTP at these hub airports to better serve these lucrative but time-sensitive local passengers. Unlike the European LCCs, Spring Airlines, the largest low-cost carrier (LCC) in China, outperforms major full-service carriers (FSCs) in controlling delay propagation. This finding may also apply to other Northeast Asian LCCs sharing common operational characteristics as Spring Airlines. Last, we find that airlines purposely tolerate moderate departure delays of up to 15 min, which is the threshold that defines delays, no matter whether the pre-segment flight arrives late or on-time. The relevant policy and managerial implications are also discussed.