中国—荷兰中欧班列货源结构时空演化研究

欧盟一直是我国最重要的贸易合作伙伴之一,荷兰则是我国在欧盟的前三大贸易伙伴之一,中荷贸易关系是中欧贸易关系中重要的一环,中欧班列的区域货源结构对中欧班列功能定位和发展规划意义重大。为明确中荷贸易背景下货源结构动态演化过程、特征及机制,在模糊C均值基础上,结合邻接矩阵对聚类分析结果进行修正,将各离散点货源数据进行合并聚类,剖析其时间和空间层面的演变及原因,探究货源结构时空演化趋势。结果表明:2014—2018年,中荷之间货源数量整体呈上升趋势,货源时空布局呈现空间集聚效应,表现为“由整到散”“西高东低”的演化态势。最后提出相关政策建议。     

Constraints to cruising across cultures and time

Cruise tourism is permeating the global arena. With companies developing new ships/itineraries for the U.S. and China markets, understanding constraints to cruising for different cultures carries significant value for cruise tourism development. This study adopted longitudinal and cross-cultural approaches to validate constraint measures. Data were collected in the U.S. in 2008 and 2017 and in China in 2017, using the same set of constraint measures across different times and cultures. This multi-dimensional triangulation approach was deemed important for testing the robustness of a measurement scale and is believed to be the first of its type. Findings validate the cruising constraint instrument across time and cultures and provide theoretical and practical implications.     

The untold story of commodity futures in China

We investigate the behavior of commodity futures risk premia in China. In the presence of retail-dominance and barriers-to-entry, the term structure and momentum premia remain persistent, whereas hedging pressure, skewness, volatility, and liquidity premia are distorted by time-varying margins and strict position limits. Furthermore, open interest, currency, and inflation premia are sensitive to institutional settings. The observed premia cannot be attributed to common risks, sentiment, transactions costs, or data-snooping, but are related to liquidity, anchoring, and regulation-induced limits-to-arbitrage. We highlight the distinctive features of Chinese futures markets and assess the challenges posed to theories of commodity risk premia.     

The interest group theory of financial development in China: Openness and the role of interest groups

The interest group theory of financial development predicts that the incumbents' opposition to financial development will be weaker when an economy is open to both trade and capital flows. Based on regressions of financial development on trade and financial openness, existing studies only provide indirect tests of the hypothesis and deliver mixed findings. This paper proposes models for direct tests of interest group theory for China. Using Chinese cross-province data, we define and measure interest groups based on the close tie between state-owned enterprises and local government in China. The empirical results show that the opposition from interest groups to financial development cannot be weakened in provinces with high trade or financial openness alone. However, the opposition is indeed weakened in provinces with high levels of both trade and financial openness. These results provide robust support for interest group theory in accounting for cross-province differences and time-series variation in financial development in China.     

Foreign direct investment and inequality: Evidence from China's policy change

In this paper, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on local urban inequality in China. Specifically, we consider the FDI policy change as an exogenous shock on the local labour markets. We find that cities that have experienced a bigger policy change in promoting FDI between 1997 and 2002 are significantly more unequal in 2005. This pattern is mainly driven by the positive association between FDI liberalisation and skill premia. The result holds after we control for other policy changes, such as privatisation of state-owned enterprises, infrastructure and trade liberalisation. We then turn to investigate the mechanisms using firm and individual-level information. Our firm-level evidence shows that FDI firms not only hire relatively more high-skilled workers but also provide relatively higher wages to high-skilled workers compared to domestic firms. Moreover, the individual-level analysis shows that FDI has a significantly positive spillover effect on wages received by skilled workers employed by state-owned enterprises, but not wages of unskilled workers.     

Labour market adjustment to third-party competition: Evidence from Mexico

China's exports reduce wages in importing countries, but few studies have looked at competition in third-party markets. We examine labour market outcomes in Mexico's apparel and textile sectors associated with US apparel and textile imports from China. Using data on US imports in conjunction with quarterly Mexican labour force surveys, we show that US imports from China are associated with a reduction of employment in Mexico's apparel and textile sectors. These effects are the most pronounced for the least educated. Wages were not impacted on net except for possibly the poorest which would indicate stronger local labour market ties in the left tail of the wage distribution. Finally, the effects of trade-induced demand shocks dissipate after about two quarters indicating low firm-level adjustment costs.     

Markups,import competition and exporting

This paper analyses the relationship between markups and international trade at the firm level using a large sample of French manufacturing firms for the period 1995–2007. In particular, the paper investigates the effect of increasing import competition from China on firms' price–cost margins and the way in which exporting interacts with this effect. The results show robust evidence that firms in more direct competition with Chinese imports decrease their markups. However, firms that become exporters experience a smaller reduction in their price–cost margins. Consistent with these findings, the results also show that firms facing tougher competition from China are more likely to start exporting to avoid such competitive pressures.     

全域旅游示范区空间分布特征及影响因素分析

［目的］全域旅游示范区的确立为旅游业增添了新的旅游吸引模式，成为新时期我国旅游产业转型升级的重要途径之一。［方法］文章利用ArcGIS102，运用最邻近距离法、不均衡指数、核密度分析、等方法，对标记在地图上的500个全域旅游示范区的空间分布特征进行分析，并探究其空间分布差异的影响因素。［结果］（1）示范区空间分布不均衡，呈典型的聚集型分布，从区域角度来看，西部地区示范区数量多于东部地区，中部地区相对较少，与传统认知上的示范区分布格局存在一定错位； （2）示范区空间分布密度存在明显差异，其中江浙皖、湘赣交界、晋豫交界、陕渝交界等地区示范区聚集最多，形成显著的高密度区； （3）示范区规模度差距较大，上海、北京、江苏、天津等省市规模度较大，其他省市规模度较小； （4）示范区空间分布受到资源禀赋、区位交通、社会经济、政策环境等因素影响较大，呈现“傍景”“环路”的分布格局。［结论］全域旅游示范区空间分布不均衡，各省市既要挖掘自身核心竞争力，也要加强区域协调发展，突出示范区模范带头作用，达到辐射周边市县的效果，实现全域旅游资源优化配置。     

Investment dynamics and capital distortion: State and non-state firms in China

This paper studies investment dynamics in Chinese manufacturing firms. The analysis estimates capital adjustment costs and uncovers capital distortion in state and non-state firms. There is strong evidence of quadratic adjustment cost and distortion in capital price for both types of firms. The capital distortion is a major source of capital misallocation in Chinese firms. Completely removing the distortion would increase aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) by 18–29%.     

新中国70年中国农村社会保障制度的演进逻辑与未来展望

新中国成立以来,得益于我国综合国力的快速提升和中国特色社会主义的制度优势,我国农村社会保障事业取得了巨大成就,但仍存在社会保障制度城乡不均衡发展等重要问题。本文依据多源流模型和公共产品理论构建了我国农村社会保障制度演进的分析框架进行分析表明,我国农村社会保障制度演进大概经历了制度萌芽与停滞、恢复与探索、改革与发展、完善和提高四个阶段,人民日益增长的美好生活需要、党和国家"以人民为中心"的发展理念、政策试点与政策研究、经济体制改革与综合国力提升共同构成了农村社会保障制度演进的动力机制。针对农村社会保障制度演进面临的重要挑战,提出了加强农村社会保障治理体系现代化建设等未来展望。