Spatio-temporal probabilistic forecasting of wind power for multiple farms: A copula-based hybrid model

Accurate probabilistic forecasting of wind power output is critical to maximizing network integration of this clean energy source. There is a large literature on temporal modeling of wind power forecasting, but considerably less work combining spatial dependence into the forecasting framework. Through the careful consideration of the temporal modeling component, complemented by support vector regression of the temporal model residuals, this work demonstrates that a DVINE copula model most accurately represents the residual spatial dependence. Additionally, this work proposes a complete set of validation mechanisms for multi-h-step forecasts that, when considered together, comprehensively evaluate accuracy. The model and validation mechanisms are demonstrated in two case studies, totaling ten wind farms in the Texas electric grid. The proposed method outperforms baseline and competitive models, with an average Continuous Ranked Probability Score of less than 0.15 for individual farms, and an average Energy Score of less than 0.35 for multiple farms, over the 24-hour-ahead horizon. Results show the model’s ability to replicate the power output dynamics through calibrated and sharp predictive densities.     

SKILLS MISMATCH: CONCEPTS,MEASUREMENT AND POLICY APPROACHES

The term skills mismatch is very broad and can relate to many forms of labour market friction, including vertical mismatch, skill gaps, skill shortages, field of study (horizontal) mismatch and skill obsolescence. In this paper, we provide a clear overview of each concept and discuss the measurement and inter‐relatedness of different forms of mismatch. We present a comprehensive analysis of the current position of the literature on skills mismatch and highlight areas which are relatively underdeveloped and may warrant further research. Using data from the European Skills and Jobs Survey, we assess the incidence of various combinations of skills mismatch across the EU. Finally, we review the European Commission's country‐specific recommendations and find that skills mismatch, when referring to underutilized human capital in the form of overeducation and skills underutilization, receives little policy attention. In cases where skills mismatch forms part of policy recommendations, the policy advice is either vague or addresses the areas of mismatch for which there is the least available evidence.     

多重匹配下柔性人力资源管理构型与组织成长性绩效

基于构型观和动态能力理论,借鉴“结构（管理构型）—行为（柔性能力培育）—绩效（组织绩效）”经典范式,构建“柔性人力资源管理构型—技能延展力—成长性绩效”的理论框架。对486份企业中高层管理者调查问卷进行结构方程分析,结果表明：①因循多重匹配理念,人力资源管理构型能够凝练出3种典型柔性管理模式：内柔导向型HRM、外柔导向型HRM、内外兼柔导向型HRM;②差异化柔性人力资源管理构型（内柔导向型、内外兼柔导向型、外柔导向型HRM）正向影响组织成长性绩效;③技能延展力在柔性人力资源管理构型与成长性绩效之间起部分中介作用。技能延展力在内柔导向型、内外兼柔导向型、外柔导向型HRM与成长性绩效之间的中介作用依次降低。     

Can the HOSS framework help shed light on the simultaneous growth of inequality and informalization in developing countries?

Using simple, modified versions of the factor proportions framework, and focusing on structural features within developing economies, this paper attempts to reconcile puzzling developments observed in many post-reform, post-liberalization countries whereby increasing income inequality has emerged side-by-side with informalization of the economy. Measures undertaken to enhance public sector efficiency and attract investment in an import-intensive export sector may increase rental–wage and skilled–unskilled wage gaps, contra the predictions of the simple Heckscher–Ohlin–Stolper–Samuelson (HOSS) framework regarding skill- and capital-scarce countries. The common thread generating our interesting results is the presence of sectors that are even more labor-intensive than those producing traded goods.

同业参照比运气和才能更重要吗——高管薪酬影响因素的探索性研究

针对近年来我国上市公司存在的高管薪酬持续增长现象,文章以我国上市公司2008-2013年的数据为样本,探究了运气、才能、同业参照因素对高管薪酬的影响。研究发现：（1）同业参照对高管薪酬的影响远高于运气和才能因素,同业参照因素是高管薪酬最重要的影响因素;（2）在国有企业中,同业参照因素对高管薪酬的影响最大,其次是运气因素,最后是高管才能因素;（3）在非国有企业中,高管才能因素对高管薪酬的影响最大,其次是同业参照因素,最后是运气因素。本文的研究意义在于不仅找出谁是高管薪酬最重要影响因素,不同产权性质的企业具有何种表现,也为进一步推进我国高管薪酬制度改革提供理论与经验支持。     

The effect of import competition on labor income inequality through firm and worker heterogeneity in the Japanese manufacturing sector

This study estimates the effects of import competition from Asia on the labor income inequality of Japanese manufacturing workers, considering firm and worker heterogeneity. Parameters are obtained from regression results of annual salary by using constructed worker–establishment panel data. The estimated salary change is positively and negatively larger for higher- and lower-paid workers, respectively, implying that labor income inequality among industry–size–skill–gender groups has increased due to imports from Asia. However, the actual evolution of income inequality during 1998–2014 is not successfully explained by Asian imports: other shocks overshadow import competition to determine actual income inequality.     

What drives bilateral foreign direct investment among Asian economies?

This study analyses the role of knowledge transfers via bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) among 31 Asian economies. We make three distinct contributions to the literature on the drivers of FDI by: (1) applying the knowledge-capital model to FDI among Asian economies for the first time, using a comprehensive data set, and comparing it to an empirical gravity-type model of FDI; (2) conducting model selection tests to choose between alternative empirical specifications and estimation methods; and (3) modelling both the FDI participation decision and the decision on the amount of FDI. The main findings are: (1) while vertical FDI, driven by seeking low-cost unskilled labour, appears to be the dominant type of intra-Asian FDI, overall the knowledge-capital model is not supported by the data; and (2) conventional gravity variables (e.g., size, distance, common language) provide a better explanation of intra-Asian FDI and, therefore, a more suitable vehicle for future research.     

Deficit versus balanced budget financing of ICT Infrastructure and Export Quality

This paper examines whether and how provision of better quality of ICT infrastructure by the government incentivizes quality upgrading of exports of IT-enabled services of a small dependent economy that displays a diversified export basket. The central idea of the analysis is that infrastructure development has both benefits and costs, and thus may not necessarily improve quality of service exports.Method of financing the ICT infrastructure is also important. We show that if the skill-productivity augmenting effect of better quality of ICT dominates its adverse wage-cost effect, then the quality of the export of ITeS will be upgraded if the government switches from deficit financing to balanced budget financing (through an input tariff) of its expenditure on ICT development. An exogenous increase in expenditure on ICT development raises the quality of service exports regardless of how it is financed, though raises it by a larger magnitude when financed through an increase in the input tariff. Thus, when the primary objective is to incentivize upgrading of quality of exports, balanced budget financing of infrastructure development seems to be the more preferred policy.     

Are graduates’ intrapreneurial skills optimally used for innovation?

This paper studies the extent to which higher education graduates with higher intrapreneurial skills – creative, brokering, and championing skills – are more involved in innovation. Crucially, we differentiate between graduates employed in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) occupations and those employed in business occupations. Using data on higher education graduates from 11 European countries, we find that, in both STEM and business occupations, high levels of creative skills are important to involvement in innovation. Higher levels of brokering skills are particularly important for graduates employed in STEM occupations, whereas higher levels of championing skills are particularly important for those in business occupations. We find, however, that the innovative potential of graduates with higher levels of intrapreneurial skills is not optimally utilized for innovation. Our study provides valuable insights for those selecting graduates for STEM and business occupations based on specific intrapreneurial skills to foster both product and process innovation, as well as for those in charge of designing higher education study curricula.     

资质过高感对员工知识共享行为的影响：一个被调节的中介模型

基于差异-减少机制和自我验证理论，探讨资质过高感对员工知识共享行为的影响机制和边界条件。结果表明：资质过高感显著负向影响员工知识共享行为；核心自我评价在资质过高感与员工知识共享行为的负向关系中起完全中介作用；领导政治技能调节了资质过高感与员工核心自我评价的关系，领导政治技能越高，资质过高感对员工核心自我评价的负向影响越小；领导政治技能调节了资质过高感通过核心自我评价对员工知识共享行为的间接影响，领导政治技能越高，资质过高感对员工知识共享行为的影响就越小。