跨国公司服务外包的发展趋势与我国对策分析

随着国际经济领域的竞争日趋激烈,为了在全球范围内进行最优资源配置、控制成本、追求利润,跨国公司逐渐将其非核心服务业务向海外转移,这对于中国来说是一个巨大的机会。本文对跨国公司服务外包的发展趋势进行了分析,并在此基础上从行业和政府的角度提出了中国应对服务外包发展的措施。     

中国行业报营销策略研究

文中立足中国行业报现状,存在的问题及原因,提出中国行业报营销策略的研究.通过中国行业报理论的四要素阐述.根据现代市场营销理论的研究成果.把商品和服务整体地销售给消费者的一系列经营管理活动,展现了行业报面临的形势和挑战.文中针对行业报面临的形势、挑战和现状,提出了行业报的发展趋势及主要对策.     

Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)

Filters used to estimate unobserved components in time series are often designed on a priori grounds, so as to capture the frequencies associated with the component. A limitation of these filters is that they may yield spurious results. The danger can be avoided if the so-called ARIMA-model-based (AMB) procedure is used to derive the filter. However, parsimony of ARIMA models typically implies little resolution in terms of the detection of hidden components. It would be desirable to combine a higher resolution with consistency of the structure of the observed series.We show first that for a large class of a priori designed filters, an AMB interpretation is always possible. Using this result, proper convolution of AMB filters can produce richer decompositions of the series that incorporate a priori desired features of the components and fully respect the ARIMA model for the observed series (hence no additional parameter needs to be estimated).The procedure is discussed in detail in the context of business-cycle estimation by means of the Hodrick-Prescott filter applied to a seasonally adjusted series or a trend–cycle component.     

当前高校思想政治教育工作面临的新问题及对策

当前大学生思想政治状况主流是好的，但我们也应清醒地认识到，当前大学生思想政治教育面临着许多新情况、新问题和新挑战。准确把握当前大学生思想、生活、学习态度，制定应对措施，使高校思想政治教育工作更具有实效性。     

Strategic development trend and key factors analysis of Airport City in Taiwan

In the past decade, many airports have shifted from being simple transfer ports to logistical transportation hubs and, more recently, into multi-functional airport cities. The emergence of the airport city provides evidence of advanced transportation development of a country or a region, as it serves as the impetus for national industry and a gateway to economic globalization. This paper explores the development trend of airport cities in Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore as a basis for analysis of outcomes in Taiwan. Using grounded theory-based qualitative research, this study analyses and conceptualizes thirty key factors and seven trends for airport-city development via interviews with focus groups and experts. These development trends are verified by a contingency analysis with airport cities development intelligence. In addition, this study conducts an industrial matrix analysis and verb-term coding to propose action items for industrial categories in the case of Taiwan Taoyuan international airport.     

中国股票市场波动率分解及长期趋势研究

Campbell等（2001）为实证研究市场的长期趋势特征提出了市场波动率分解模型，其特点是将波动率按成因进行分解并且该分解不依赖于β系数。采用该模型，本文将我国股票市场1991至2004年的波动率实证分解为市场波动率、行业波动率和公司波动率。研究了我国股票市场三种波动率的长期变化趋势。与美国市场相比（美国市场1962至1997年间市场和行业波动率保持稳定而公司波动率增长了一倍），本文的实证结果表明：我国市场1991至2004年间市场、行业和公司波动率均存在显著的下降趋势；表现出了与国际市场不同的趋势特点；随着时间的推进，我国股票市场在不断成熟、市场效率不断提高。进一步的研究表明，1998年后我国股票市场中市场波动率最大。公司波动率略小，而行业波动率则远小于前两者。本文的研究结论将为政策制定者和投资组合风险管理者提供宏观借鉴，我国投资风险管理的战略重点首先应对冲市场风险，其次分散公司风险。     

趋势性单位根过程的真实模型问题研究

本文以六个有趋势性的时间序列样本数据为例,说明绝大多数趋势性单位根过程不一定能用包含常数项或时间趋势项的单位根模型来描述,而适合的是用来描述无趋势的随机性单位根过程的模型。本文利用单位根的三个模型的分解式对这种现象做了解释,认为可能是由于随机因素的同方向作用导致的。     

Technology clustering based on evolutionary patterns: The case of information and communications technologies

Technology trend analysis anticipates the direction and rate of technology changes, and thus supports strategic decision-making for innovation. As technological convergence and diversification are regarded as emerging trends, it is important to compare the growth patterns of various technologies in a particular industry to help understand the industry characteristics and analyse the technology innovation process. However, despite the potential value of this approach, conventional approaches have focused on individual technologies and paid little attention to synthesising and comparing multiple technologies. We therefore propose a new approach for clustering technologies based on their growth patterns. After technologies with similar patterns are identified, the underlying factors that lead to the patterns can be analysed. For that purpose, we analysed patent data using a Hidden Markov model, followed by clustering analysis, and tested the validity of the proposed approach by applying it to the ICT industry. Our approach provides insights into the basic nature of technologies in an industry, and facilitates the analysis and forecasting of their evolution.     

大国经济研究的回顾与展望——1990-2010年国内文献述评

中国是典型的发展中大国,自20世纪90年代以来,我国学者对大国经济的研究经历了提出问题、初步探索、形成热点三个阶段,主要从大国经济崛起的典型化事实出发,研究了大国特征和大国优势、大国模式和大国战略、大国治理和大国体制等问题,提出了一些有价值的思想观点。但是,现有研究存在对象不够明晰、内容比较分散和理论深度有待拓展等问题,基于这种状况,未来的研究将在广度和深度上拓展,并形成科学的理论体系。应该积极寻求大国经济研究的微观基础和理论范式,揭示超大规模国家经济的特征和特殊规律,并通过在系统化研究、核心原理研究和学科体系研究等方面取得突破,为大国经济学的创立奠定基础。     

对我国体育休闲娱乐人才培养模式的现状分析

通过查阅国内外文献资料,探寻出世界体育体闲娱乐人才培养模式的发展趋势,从而分析比较中外在体育休闲娱乐人才培养方面的异同,找出国内社会体育专业办学中的不足之处,为在社会体育专业中探索体育休闲娱乐人才培养模式.