Trend inflation,sticky prices,and expectational stability

Micro evidence indicates that each period a fraction of prices is kept unchanged under a positive trend inflation rate. In a sticky price model based on this evidence, recent research shows that high trend inflation is a serious cause for indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibrium under the Taylor rule. This paper examines implications of trend inflation for expectational stability of the equilibrium. An empirically plausible calibration of the model demonstrates that a fundamental rational expectations equilibrium is likely to be expectationally stable even in cases of indeterminacy induced by high trend inflation.     

Long-run growth uncertainty

Observed macroeconomic forecasts display a positive correlation between expectations of long-run growth of endogenous variables (e.g., output) and cyclical activity. Existing business cycle models appear inconsistent with the evidence. This paper presents a model of the business cycle in which households have imperfect knowledge of long-run growth rate of endogenous variables and continually learn about these growth rates. The model features comovement and mutual influence between households׳ growth expectations and market outcomes. It can replicate the evidence on growth forecasts and suggests that optimism and pessimism about long-run growth rates is a crucial ingredient in understanding business cycle fluctuations.     

浅析我国人力资源方面存在的问题及解决对策

人力资源是最重要的生产要素。当前我国人力资源存在着总体素质较低、教育投入不足、结构不合理、老龄化趋势严重、地区差距较大等问题,只有从加大教育投入,完善教育立法,加强中外教育、两岸三地教育合作等才能全面提高人力资源总体水平,也才能为未来的经济发展奠定坚实的基础,从而使中国人力资源开发朝着更加良性、合理的方向发展。     

Measuring business cycles: A wavelet analysis of economic time series

Multiresolution wavelet analysis is a natural way to decompose an economic time series into trend, cycle, and noise. The method is illustrated with GDP data. The business-cycle component of the wavelet-filtered series closely resembles the series filtered by the approximate bandpass filter.     

香港旅游业的"内地化"弊端与国际化走向

针对香港旅游业出现的"内地化"趋势,从香港旅游业在国际旅游体系的地位及其发展状况出发,分析香港旅游业"内地化"存在的弊端,认为"国际化"才是香港旅游业发展的方向,并提出应加大海外市场推广和宣传工作、加强大珠三角旅游合作、利用香港的优势在全球范围内推出"过境游"及举办旅游会展活动等政策措施,以保障香港旅游业能有效地在"国际化"道路上发展。     

操作风险管理现状及其趋势研究

银行业对操作风险的管理仍处于探索阶段。从操作风险的特征出发,分别从监管、信息支持、量化方法和管理框架角度对银行业操作风险管理现状进行总结评析,并在此基础上分析了该领域的发展趋势和研究方向,为进一步深入研究提供了建议。     

Thirty-five years of journal of econometrics

The paper discusses how the Journal of Econometrics started and has grown over the years. It analyzes a trend in the research areas of the published articles and reviews some of the important papers that have been published. It concludes with an assessment of the future of the journal.     

牙膏制膏机的现状及发展趋势

文章简述国内外牙膏制膏机的现状，分析牙膏制膏机采用底部均质、外循环方式、特殊搅拌器形状设计、生产过程全自动化控制的技术优势，提出该类型制膏机代表了一种技术发展趋势，具有推广应用价值。     

Trend inflation and macroeconomic stability in a small open economy

This paper estimates a small open economy New Keynesian model for Australia with positive trend inflation while allowing for multiple equilibria. We first show the extent to which positive trend inflation can shrink the determinacy region. We then conduct a Bayesian estimation over two separate periods: from 1983Q1 to 1993Q1, covering the pre-inflation-targeting regime, and from 1993Q2 to 2018Q4, covering the inflation-targeting regime. We find that Australian monetary policy before the adoption of inflation-targeting permitted multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling inflation expectations to arise, resulting in exacerbated macroeconomic volatility. The implementation of inflation-targeting in Australia in the early 1990s successfully eradicated equilibrium multiplicity and sunspot shocks, and thereby drove the economy towards greater stability.     

我国企业海外并购发展趋势与问题简析

近些年我国企业海外并购增长迅速,主要集中在北美和欧洲,亚非并购呈显良好发展势头。能源电力仍是主要并购行业。并购主体多元化,民企海外并购呈上升趋势。但我国企业海外并购以能源资源和国企为主导,易引起目的国猜忌;民企并购融资困难;国内行政审批手续复杂,国外投资壁垒较多;并购前期准备不足,并购后期整合不利。需从国家政策支持、加快发展并购相关服务、提升企业运营水平等方面促进海外并购发展。