劳动报酬上涨与中国国民储蓄率的演变趋势

资金流量表数据表明,劳动报酬上涨对2008年以来中国国民储蓄率产生了重大影响。本文据此提出了解释国民储蓄率演变趋势的劳动报酬假说,认为2008年以来的国民储蓄率持续下降是居民劳动报酬上涨推动的。具体来说,居民劳动报酬上涨的确定性和可预期性,增强了居民消费的过度敏感性,造成居民储蓄率下降;居民劳动报酬上涨导致企业支付劳动报酬占比上升,企业储蓄率下降;而企业支付劳动报酬占比上升又导致政府增加社会福利和公共服务支出,政府可支配收入比重和政府储蓄倾向下降,进而使得政府储蓄率下降。基于2008—2016年的省级面板数据,以最低工资标准作为工具变量进行实证检验,验证了上述假说。基于本文的理论假说和经验证据,我国国民储蓄率仍有进一步下降的空间。为了对冲储蓄率下降带来的影响,我国经济增长方式需要由投资驱动型转变为消费驱动型,当前稳增长政策的着力点需要由投资数量转变为投资效率。     

美国农业补贴政策及其改革趋势

美国作为世界最大的农产品贸易国,对农业长期实行补贴政策。1995年以来,为适应WTO《农业协议》的要求,美国不断调整补贴形式,减少“黄箱”政策,扩大“绿箱”政策。美国的农业补贴政策及改革趋势对优化我国农业补贴的方式,特别是设计金融支农的政策措施有重要参考价值。     

基于回归克立格法的土地整治项目区高精度DEM构建研究

精确的数字高程模型(DEM)对于土地整治规划设计中的土方工程量的计算以及投资估(概)算的准确性等至关重要。针对由于存在地形趋势引起地统计方法在DEM建模中无法拟合半方差函数模型的问题,本研究以江西省宜丰县土地整治工程项目区为例,研究采用回归克立格方法去除地形空间趋势,构建项目区DEM。结果表明:最小二乘法去除的三次多项式趋势面解释了样点99.94%的方差;球状模型可较好的拟合残差的半方差函数模型,对该模型进行交叉检验表明,模型的平均预测误差、均方误差均较小;均方偏差比为1.045,接近理论最优值1。实测验证样本也进一步证明,回归克立格方法在地形建模方面的精度较高,且比传统的TIN方法有一定的提高。     

A systematic approach for integrated trend analysis—The case of etching

Understanding technology development trends is of critical importance to countries, industries and enterprises to be sustainable in global competition. Attempts have been made to establish trend analysis by bibliometric and patent analyses. Also text-mining uncovers hidden and important information from structured or unstructured documents which serve as knowledge carriers. This study aims to provide a systematic approach for integrated trend analysis that takes into account bibliometric analysis, patent analysis and text-mining analysis. Etching is selected as the case study for integrating trend analysis method proposed in this study. Also, validity and applicability of the integrated analysis are evaluated.     

A methodology of technological foresight: A proposal and field study

The study of one's own business future is a distinctive element of a business strategy. Innovative companies are aware of weak signals coming from the periphery and of trends in their industry, and they monitor the coherence between weak signals and trends (the external perspective) and strategic direction (the internal perspective).The literature today does not provide well-framed and complete methodologies for assessing the coherence among trends, vision and products. Therefore, the authors propose a methodology called “the methodology of future coverage”, which measures how much the strategy oriented to the future effectively covers trends and megatrends. In other words, it helps to check the contents and the coherence of the firm' vision and products and those of the trends that will have relevance for the future of the industry, and this process supplies firms with supplementary information on how to improve. The authors tested this methodology and exemplified its use via the Eurotech case study, employing longitudinal analysis.The methodology can be useful as a tool for diagnosing the coherence between trends and company strategy. Moreover, from a dynamic point of view, it can be used as a tool to check on the company's progress in following up on trends by adapting its strategy over time. Finally, the methodology can be also used as a tool for cross-comparison of the “level of future orientation” among companies in the same industry.     

发达国家境外所得征税制度的发展趋势

发达国家境外所得征税制度的发展表现出的趋势,对我国境外所得征税制度的改革和完善具有十分重要的意义。借鉴发达国家的经验,我国应逐步推动属人税制向属地税制的转化,将境外所得分为积极所得和消极所得,对积极所得实行属地税制,对消极所得实行全球税制。     

基于STAR模型的中日汇率态势检验

改革开放是我国发展壮大的必经之路.其过程离不开与其他国家或地区的经济交往,因此必然受到国外经济的影响.随着我国经济开放程度的不断扩大,汇率的变动对我国经济变动的影响也越来越大.在我国对外贸易中,日本是一个不容忽视的贸易对象国,本文采用基于STAR模型的KSS非线性单位根检验分析法和传统的ADF与PP检验对中日实际汇率进行了实证检验,检验结果表明,我国汇率符合购买力平价理论,这说明现有的参考一篮子货币的有管理的浮动汇率制度正逐步达到市场有效性和预期效果,应继续发挥市场供求在人民币汇率形成中的基础性作用,增强浮动弹性.     

Mortality Forecasting and Trend Shifts: an Application of the Lee–Carter Model to Swedish Mortality Data*

In this paper we examine how the Lee–Carter model fares with Swedish data for the period 1901–2001 and for segments of this period. We have choosen to censor ages less than age 40 as those ages only are of marginal interest to the forecast. At age 40 some 98 to 99 percent of the birth cohorts are survivors. In the study we only consider the unweighted K¹ estimates. The Lee–Carter model provides very good fits to the data. When splitting up the base period there seems to be an interaction beween the age and time components of the model. In order to deal with the different phases of falling mortality for males and females possibly one should choose the past 25 years as a base in the model. Selecting the base period is however a judgmental issue depending on the main focus of the forecast. Is it long‐term, short‐term or, as in Sweden, a combination of both.?     

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues*

Abstract. In this paper, we present an overview of a number of issues relating to the equilibrium exchange rates of transition economies of the former soviet bloc. In particular, we present a critical overview of the various methods available for calculating equilibrium exchange rates and discuss how useful they are likely to be for the transition economies. Amongst our findings is the result that the trend appreciation usually observed for the exchange rates of these economies is affected by factors other than the usual Balassa–Samuelson effect, such as the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the open sector and regulated prices. We then consider three main sources of uncertainty relating to the implementation of an equilibrium exchange rate model, namely: differences in the theoretical underpinnings, differences in the econometric estimation techniques, and differences relating to the time‐series and cross‐sectional dimensions of the data. The ensuing three‐dimensional space of real misalignments is probably a useful tool in determining the direction of a possible misalignment rather than its precise size.     

Is there still a productivity paradox? two methods for a transatlantic comparison

Economic activity accelerated in the United States, in the second part of the cycle, after 1995, within an environment of decreasing inflation. France has followed a qualitatively similar path since 1997, also clearly suggesting the effects of a positive supply shock. The spread of new information and communication technologies (NICT) partly explains these singular events. On one hand, a calculation of contributions to output growth suggests that they would explain about half of the increase in activity in the United States and one-fifth in France. On the other hand, a trend/cycle decomposition reveals that the structural acceleration in output and productivity gains in the United States are very much restricted to industries producing NICT and there is a rather small break in productivity gains. In France, where differences between sectors are not so clear-cut, the diffusion of NICT has been accompanied by a slowdown in trends in productivity gains. In both cases, there is little room left for the effects of the diffusion of technical progress associated with NICT.