中国农村经济社会组织变迁过程新解及启示（1949—1962）

本文为新中国成立伊始至20世纪60年代初的中国农村经济社会组织变迁提供一个政治经济学诠释,并探讨该段历史进程对当下推进乡村振兴战略的启示。在本文框架下,合作化运动与人民公社的建立与调整被视为主导信念与现实之间不断互动、有其内在逻辑的制度变迁过程。传统的劳动互助思想、社会主义信念体系和苏联的榜样作用、源自战争年代的牺牲精神共同构成了推行农业集体化的信念来源。该信念不仅主导了农业合作化运动的不断升级与人民公社制度的发轫和调整,而且在现实的反作用下持续演进。以史为鉴,在实施乡村振兴战略时须充分考虑相关信念分布与主导信念的实现机制、稳中求进、充分重视利益分配问题。     

Toward a theory of honesty and trust among communicating autonomous agents

This article outlines, through a number of examples, a method that can be used by autonomous agents to decide among potential messages to send to other agents, without having to assume that a message must be truthful and that it must be believed by the hearer. The main idea is that communicative behavior of autonomous agents is guided by the principle of economic rationality, whereby agents transmit messages to increase the effectiveness of interaction measured by their expected utilities. We are using a recursive, decision-theoretic formalism that allows agents to model each other and to infer the impact of a message on its recipient. The recursion can be continued into deeper levels, and agents can model the recipient modeling the sender in an effort to assess the truthfulness of the received message. We show how our method often allows the agents to decide to communicate in spite of the possibility that the messages will not be believed. In certain situations, on the other hand, our method shows that the possibility of the hearer not believing what it hears makes communication useless. Our method thus provides the rudiments of a theory of how honesty and trust could emerge through rational, selfish behavior.This research was supported, in part, by the Department of Energy under contract DG-FG-86NE37969, and by the National Science Foundation under grant IRI-9015423.     

CEO信念、信念拓扑与战略选择权约束

基于CEO信念二重性"正向匹配激励"和"负面棘轮效应"分析,文章提出CEO信念拓扑概念,旨在强调CEO信念表现在战略选择中具有:渗透性、动态性以及其阶段上的不可逆性;揭示企业CEO信念与战略选择存在相悖的困惑:一方面,企业战略的进取性很大程度上决定于CEO信念进取性;另一方面,由于CEO信念具有阶段上的不可逆性而带来问题.文章认为:必须调整CEO的信念,必须建立起对企业CEO的信念实现形式--战略选择控制权进行契约约束管理模式.     

宗教信仰、政治身份与企业投资偏好

文章运用企业家宗教信仰的直接调查数据,考察了企业家的个人宗教信仰对企业投资活动的影响。研究发现,相对于研发型投资,有宗教信仰的企业家偏好于风险相对较小的关系型投资;不同类型的宗教信仰对企业投资偏好具有不同的影响,笃信东方宗教的企业家相对于笃信西方宗教的企业家更加偏好于关系型投资;企业家的宗教信仰对投资偏好的影响因企业家是否具有政治身份而有所不同,相对于有政治身份的企业家,没有政治身份的企业家的宗教信仰会更加显著地正向影响关系型投资,表明政治身份可能会弱化宗教信仰在关系型投资中的作用。     

论我国民众法律信仰的培植

法律信仰是社会主体对法律的相信和尊敬,是法治建设不可或缺的内在要求。转型时期,我国一些地区不同程度地存在着法律信仰缺失的现象,严重影响了法治建设。必须通过实现司法公正、深化政治体制改革、提高立法质量等途径,加强我国民众法律信仰的培植。     

Strong Belief and Forward Induction Reasoning

We provide a unified epistemic analysis of some forward-induction solution concepts in games with complete and incomplete information. We suggest that forward induction reasoning may be usefully interpreted as a set of assumptions governing the players' belief revision processes, and define a notion of strong belief to formalize these assumptions. Building on the notion of strong belief, we provide an epistemic characterization of extensive-form rationalizability and the intuitive criterion, as well as sufficient epistemic conditions for the backward induction outcome in generic games with perfect information. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D82.     

大学生信仰现状及对策研究--以沈阳高校为例

通过对沈阳部分高校在校大学生进行随机走访、座谈交流并发放调查问卷,总结出沈阳高校大学生信仰现状,并提出存在的主要问题。在分析相关调查数据的基础上,归纳出影响大学生信仰现状的相关因素,并提出加强沈阳高校大学生信仰教育的对策,认为营造良好的信仰教育环境和完善高校信仰教育课程体系,是改善沈阳高校大学生信仰现状的主要途径。     

中国梦视阈下边疆大学生理想信念教育探究

边疆高校学生是边疆民族地区未来建设的生力军,将引导着边疆民族地区未来发展的方向,因而对大学生进行理想信念教育是边疆高校思想政治教育的核心内容。在中国梦语境下加强边疆高校学生理想信念教育要拓新大学生理想信念教育的内容,改进大学生理想信念教育的方式,优化大学生理想信念教育的环境。     

How money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs affect asset prices

We develop a dynamic asset pricing model with two investors with money illusions and heterogeneous beliefs about some aspects of the economy. The model is tractable and delivers closed forms for all equilibrium quantities. The study shows that money illusion leads the nominal shock risk to generate spillover effects on the real side of the economy and affects all equilibrium quantities, even without inflation disagreement. We find that bond yields increase, but the stock price decreases, as money illusion increases. Bond yield and stock price volatilities increase with fundamental disagreement, while the latter decreases with inflation disagreement. We also discover that the stock risk premium is inverse-U shaped as inflation disagreement increases. Moreover, we find that the optimistic investor holds positions in real bonds and stocks, and shorts the nominal bond to hedge against the risk of market changes, which is in line with the pessimistic investor’s beliefs.