Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach*

ABSTRACT

In this article, the multihorizon predictive power of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC) is analysed by making use of several close- and open-economy specifications for the headline inflation of six developed countries. The key element is the use of direct measures of inflation expectations – Consensus Forecast – embedded in a compact-scale Global VAR (GVAR) environment, becoming the baseline open-economy HNKPC (OE-HNKPC) specification. These OE-HNKPC point forecasts are evaluated using the Root Mean Squared Forecast Error (RMSFE) statistic and statistically compared with several benchmarks, including traditional atheoretical models. Several OE-HNKPC as well as a closed-economy HNKPC (CE-HNKPC) specifications are also analysed. The results indicate that in four out of six countries, the CE-HNKPC is the best forecasting model, whereas for the same countries, a parsimonious OE-HNKPC is the second-best alternative, and in most cases, outperforming traditional statistical benchmarks. The RMSFE is obviously affected by the unanticipated effects of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), spoiling out the performance of a number of competing forecasts. However, when considering an evaluation sample just before the crisis, both the CE-HNKPC and the parsimonious OE-HNKPC still come out as the best forecasting models. Furthermore, these preferred models also do an excellent job tracking inflation better than the best atheoretical models during the GFC.     

Life Satisfaction,Income Comparisons and Individual Traits

People gain utility from occupying a higher ranked position in the income distribution of the reference group. This paper investigates whether these gains depend on an individual's set of personality and affective traits. Using the 2000 to 2013 waves of the German Socio‐economic Panel dataset (SOEP), a subjective question on Life Satisfaction, and three different measures of personal and affective traits, we find significant and robust differences across groups and conclude that traits determine the relationship between rank and life satisfaction. The heterogeneity on the importance of income comparisons is relevant, for example, when building economic models, predicting individuals' behavior, or making welfare judgments.     

中西方比较视角下我国慈善捐赠发展的问题及对策

随着现代文明的发展,慈善事业已经成为社会保障的重要组成部分,社会急需一套健全并适合中国国情的慈善捐赠模式。文章旨在对中西慈善捐赠存在的差异进行相应的分析,从而发现我国慈善捐赠的问题所在,并试着探索出一条走出困境的行之有效的解决途径。     

WHAT HAS 20 YEARS OF PUBLIC–PRIVATE PAY GAP LITERATURE TOLD US? EASTERN EUROPEAN TRANSITIONING vs. DEVELOPED ECONOMIES

This paper surveys the literature on public–private sector pay differentials based on 20 years of research in transitioning countries of Eastern Europe (EE) and compares the results with estimates obtained from developed market economies. The majority of empirical studies from EE economies found evidence of public sector pay penalties during the period of economic transition from a communist to market‐based economy. In developed economies, however, the average differential is usually around zero or positive. The public sector pay inequality reducing effect relative to the private sector is greater in transitioning economies than in developed economies. Nevertheless, there is evidence that the sign of the public sector pay gap as well as the relative public sector pay distribution change with the progress of economic transition towards those usually observed in developed economies. Different pay‐setting arrangements between private and public sectors and competition for workers seem to be major arguments for the existence of systematic pay differences between the two sectors.     

The effects of institutional development and national culture on cross-national differences in corporate reputation

Corporate reputation is becoming more important to managers and scholars around the world. However, little is known about how much or why reputation differs across countries. We use institutional theory to fill this gap. We focus on institutional development, reflecting the expansion of formal institutions, and national culture, an important informal institution. We find that reputation is negatively related to institutional development and masculinity and positively related to power distance in a sample of 401 corporations from 25 countries. We recommend that institutional theory complement signaling theory in cross-national studies of corporate reputation.     

The economic advantages of response in the treatment of advanced breast cancer

Summary

The introduction of a new class of drugs, the taxoids, has dramatically improved the outlook for patients with advanced, metastatic breast cancer. Second-line monotherapy with the most effective taxoid, docetaxel, in patients with anthracycline-resistant metastatic breast cancer, shows an overall response rate up to 55% in this patient population. Increased response rate is associated with improved quality of life for these patients.

We carried out a cost analysis to determine the economic benefits of being in a response state compared with the other health states associated with advanced breast cancer: stable, progressive or terminal disease.

We found that the cost of care for responders is 40% of that for early progressive disease and just over a third of that for late progressive disease. The costs associated with stable disease are only a little less than those for progressive disease, and are more than double the costs for patients who have responded to chemotherapy. The costs during terminal disease are the highest, and are more than nine times those associated with caring for responders.

Our findings confirm other studies which demonstrate that the cost of chemotherapy can be offset against the reduction in costs incurred for patients who remain in healthier states for longer. The key parameter determining the economic efficiency of treatments for advanced breast cancer is response rate.     

Minimax‐Optimal Strength of Statistical Evidence for a Composite Alternative Hypothesis

While the likelihood ratio measures statistical support for an alternative hypothesis about a single parameter value, it is undefined for an alternative hypothesis that is composite in the sense that it corresponds to multiple parameter values. Regarding the parameter of interest as a random variable enables measuring support for a composite alternative hypothesis without requiring the elicitation or estimation of a prior distribution, as described below. In this setting, in which parameter randomness represents variability rather than uncertainty, the ideal measure of the support for one hypothesis over another is the difference in the posterior and prior log‐odds. That ideal support may be replaced by any measure of support that, on a per‐observation basis, is asymptotically unbiased as a predictor of the ideal support. Such measures of support are easily interpreted and, if desired, can be combined with any specified or estimated prior probability of the null hypothesis. Two qualifying measures of support are minimax‐optimal. An application to proteomics data indicates that a modification of optimal support computed from data for a single protein can closely approximate the estimated difference in posterior and prior odds that would be available with the data for 20 proteins.     

Direct evidence on income comparisons and their welfare effects

This paper provides direct evidence that income comparisons exert a significant impact on subjective well-being. It also evaluates the relative importance of different types of benchmarks. Internal comparisons to one's own past living standard outweigh any other comparison benchmarks. Local comparisons (to one's parents, former colleagues or high school mates) are more powerful than self-ranking in the social ladder. The impact of comparisons is asymmetric: under-performing one's benchmark always has a greater welfare effect than out-performing it (in absolute value). Comparisons, which reduce satisfaction also increase the demand for income redistribution, but there, the relative impact of subjective ranking is preponderant.     

Stakeholder Salience in Public and Private Firms: Results from Tanzania

It has become evident that Western concepts of business and management must be evaluated within their realms of application. The objective of this research was to analyze the effects of stakeholder attributes of power, legitimacy, and urgency on the stakeholder salience of shareholders, employees, customers, and community in state-owned and privatized firms in Tanzania. In general, the framework developed and used in Western studies proved useful in characterizing Tanzanian management perceptions toward stakeholders. That is, when using a common questionnaire, results were obtained that linked stakeholder saliency with underlying attributes. Nevertheless, the saliency profile for stakeholders was different in the Tanzanian culture from previous studies in the United States and Spain. In a Tanzanian context, employees, customers, and community attained inferior status compared to the results obtained in developed countries for which the theory had been developed. Profiles were also different in comparing state-owned and privatized firms in Tanzania. Results indicated that the effects on salience are similar for shareholders but different for the remaining stakeholder groups in the two categories of firms. Some policy recommendations are made as a consequence of observations, and the need for further work is acknowledged.     

Rawls's influence and counter-influence on Sen: Post-welfarism and impartiality

Abstract

This article aims to clarify Sen's paradoxical relationship to Rawls's work in the face of some misconceptions. It is argued, first, that the dialogue between the authors did not start with Sen's 1980 article “Equality of What?”: Rather, this article represents the beginning of a transformation in Sen's position towards Rawls. Second, Sen's approach to justice is not a mere extension of Rawls's theory of justice as fairness: The departure relies less on a different metric of justice than on a divergent conception of impartiality, one which undermines the foundation of Rawls's theory of justice.