植物检验检疫学教学改革的实践探索

从现代社会对人才素质的需要出发,根据植物检验检疫学课程的特点,进行了如下教学改革：在讲授过程中,注重教材的合理选择,贯彻启发式原则,运用讲授法、类比法等教学方法,布置撰写课程论文;实验环节,优化实验指导,进行电化教学,有机地结合虚拟实验与实际实验,调动学生学习的主动性。     

麻痹性贝类毒素检测能力验证结果分析

通过麻痹性贝类毒素检测能力验证计划的实施,对全国8省（直辖市）6行业的30个参试实验室的检测结果进行了系统评价和分析,了解和掌握了国内实验室在该检测领域的技术水平,明确了对试验结果产生影响的重要因素,促进和提高了相关实验室试验结果的准确性,为实验室认可、国际互认检测结果和领导决策提供了有力的技术数据。     

Optimal probabilistic forecasts: When do they work?

Proper scoring rules are used to assess the out-of-sample accuracy of probabilistic forecasts, with different scoring rules rewarding distinct aspects of forecast performance. Herein, we re-investigate the practice of using proper scoring rules to produce probabilistic forecasts that are ‘optimal’ according to a given score and assess when their out-of-sample accuracy is superior to alternative forecasts, according to that score. Particular attention is paid to relative predictive performance under misspecification of the predictive model. Using numerical illustrations, we document several novel findings within this paradigm that highlight the important interplay between the true data generating process, the assumed predictive model and the scoring rule. Notably, we show that only when a predictive model is sufficiently compatible with the true process to allow a particular score criterion to reward what it is designed to reward, will this approach to forecasting reap benefits. Subject to this compatibility, however, the superiority of the optimal forecast will be greater, the greater is the degree of misspecification. We explore these issues under a range of different scenarios and using both artificially simulated and empirical data.     

Testing the value of directional forecasts in the presence of serial correlation

Common approaches to testing the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical χ²${\chi }^2$-test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmermann test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations, but in the presence of serial correlation they are markedly oversized, as has been confirmed in a simulation study. We therefore summarize robust test procedures for serial correlation and propose a bootstrap approach, the relative merits of which we illustrate by means of a Monte Carlo study. Our evaluations of directional predictions of stock returns and changes in Euribor rates demonstrate the importance of accounting for serial correlation in economic time series when making such predictions.     

Probabilistic causality

Necessity and Sufficiency are two of the most important concepts in science. Indeed, they are the basis for establishing causal relationships between factors, variables, etc.     

Testing densities with financial data: an empirical comparison of the EdgeworthSargan density to the Students t

The Edgeworth—Sargan density has been shown capable of capturing salient empirical regularities of financial data in some studies. The main purpose of the reported study is to compare its performance with other densities, most notably to the Student t. Both densities can account for thick tails, and asymmetry One important by product of the comparison is to test the existence of moments. The comparison of densities is carried out with daily financial observations, spanning 25 years of data from two major world stock markets. Attention is paid to the fitting of other empirical regularities, and especially to the peak, frequently found at the middle of the densities.     

化纤检测标准中置信区间的应用

置信区间在化纤检测标准中的应用处于刚刚起步的阶段。笔者在本文中对如何在化纤检测标准中应用置信区间来提升纺织行业的检测水平进行了详细的阐述,并建议纺织生产企业、检测机构引入该方法,这将有利于相关部门提高检测的科学性、合理性,正确反映产品的性能,又可节约检测成本。     

电器产品电源插头防触电检测方法研究

依据GB4943《信息技术设备的安全标准》及GB8898《音频、视频及类似电子设备安全要求》标准，本文对音视频产品及信息技术设备在插头放电的防电击设计要求及检验其合格性的测试方法上进行了分析和研究，给出了要保证产品设计的安全性，应关注产品结构设计要求及准确的测试方法，对正确评价产品设计的安全性能、提高和加强产品使用的安全性都具有重要的指导意义。     

基于B/S结构模式的在线考试系统的设计与实现

通过ASP.NET技术,使用面向对象开发方式和三层B/S结构开发的在线考试系统,能迅速提高考试的效率和精确率,对高职院校的教考分离改革具有重要现实意义。     

电池检测安全性系统研究

以电池检测安全性系统为研究对象,以CNAS-CL01：2006（ISO/IEC17025：2005）《检测和校准实验室能力认可准则》为依据,基于相关IEC、GB、UL、EN电池检测标准要求、实践分析以及电池产品的特殊性,从设施环境安全性和检测设备安全性出发,对电池检测实验室建筑结构、消防、排烟、环保、电气控制、监控、管理等领域开展相关安全性系统的探索研究,研究成果应用于上海出入境检验检疫局机电中心电池检测实验室。