企业家资本与经济增长:一个文献综述

企业家作为在现代经济中最重要的参与者(Lazear,2005),在增长理论产生至今的大部分时间里都被排除在主流之外。近些年,伴随对增长问题理论研究的深化,企业家因素重新被纳入到人们的关注范围,并进一步剥离出了企业家资本概念。作为增长理论的最新研究成果,企业家资本强调以创设新企业作为新的增量对经济增长的推动作用,克服了传统分析模型难以将存量企业中的企业家行为纳入增长理论分析的缺陷。本文回顾了包括企业家理论、增长理论等在内的大量文献,围绕企业家资本与经济增长这一核心命题,对相关理论和实证研究成果进行了梳理和评述,以图进一步解析企业家在现代经济增长中所发挥的关键性作用。     

Consumer morality in times of economic hardship: evidence from the European Social Survey

Crimes of everyday life, often referred to as unfair or unethical practices committed in the marketplace by those who see themselves and are seen as respectable citizens, have burgeoned as a result of the transformations in the European economy in the late 20th century, namely the transition to neo‐liberal markets and the emergence of consumer society. A ‘cornucopia of new criminal opportunities’ has given rise to a new range of crimes such as ripping software, making false insurance claims or paying cash on hand to circumvent taxes. These shady behaviours (legal or not) are part of people's experience, albeit they are collectively regarded as morally dubious. Taken collectively, crimes of everyday life are indicators of the moral stage of a particular society and therefore a valuable instrument for social and political analysis. This paper addresses the question of whether and under which conditions feelings of economic hardship trigger crimes of everyday life. A multilevel theoretical and empirical perspective that integrates theories stemming from political science, sociology, and social psychology is adopted. I start by exploring the embeddedness of economic morality in social institutions, followed by an elaboration of the concept of market anomie to account for deviant behaviour in the marketplace, to finally step down to the examination of the correspondence between social attitudes and consumer behaviour, as postulated by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. The empirical study relies on micro data from the European Social Survey (ESS) (Round 2) and attempts to model, for each country, a formative measure of crimes of everyday life based on socio‐demographic variables and the current economic situation, as it is perceived by the individual (taken as a measure of relative deprivation). The resultant country‐specific regression coefficients are mapped onto the broader economic and normative context of 23 European countries. The results reveal that crimes of everyday life are driven by feelings of economic hardship only in countries where normative factors dictate their deviance. In countries where fraudulent behaviour is more generalized, inner motivations to offend play a secondary role as the more privileged consumers are more likely to commit fraud as they interact more often with the market. In turn, normative aspects result from a dynamic interplay of cultural and economic factors. As the economy grows faster, the tendency to offend in the market becomes more visible, but only in countries whose gross domestic product (GDP) stands above the European average. In countries with low GDP, the normative landscape is shaped by cultural factors that seem to obfuscate the power of economic factors favourable to consumer fraud.     

霍夫斯坦特国家文化模型与世界价值观调查的比较研究

本文通过对世界价值观调查的研究评介,与霍夫斯坦特国家文化模型进行对比,回顾了二十年来运用世界价值观调查进行研究取得的部分成果,对其研究方法作以探索,以期对未来跨文化比较管理的研究起到借鉴作用。     

对新疆青年科技工作者问卷调查的思考

45岁以下的青年科技工作者是目前新疆科技战线上的骨干和中坚力量，他们的工作生活状况、职业发展前景、心理感受与满意度在很大程度上影响着新疆科技人才队伍建设和科技事业的未来发展。本文通过对问卷调查中涉及青年科技工作者工作状况的九个方面的问题进行汇总分析，结合调查访谈获得的第一手资料，提出了四点建议，以供政府制定科技政策时参考。     

Professional forecasters and real-time forecasting with a DSGE model

This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets and Wouters (2012), estimated on euro area data. It investigates the extent to which the inclusion of forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve the forecasting performance. We consider two approaches for conditioning on such information. Under the “noise” approach, the mean professional forecasts are assumed to be noisy indicators of the rational expectations forecasts implied by the DSGE model. Under the “news” approach, it is assumed that the forecasts reveal the presence of expected future structural shocks in line with those estimated in the past. The forecasts of the DSGE model are compared with those from a Bayesian VAR model, an AR(1) model, a sample mean and a random walk.     

The impact of formal processes for market information acquisition and utilization on the performance of Chinese new ventures

The authors examine the performance impact of formal market information processes. Specifically, a theoretical model is developed that hypothesizes that formal processes for market information acquisition and utilization have direct and positive main effects on new venture success and is then tested using a sample of 222 new ventures located in China. Findings indicate that new venture success is positively correlated with the use of formal processes for market information acquisition and use. Moreover, the relative importance of formal processes to the acquisition and use of market information depends on whether the new venture serves an emerging or established market. In particular, the impact of formal processes for information acquisition is higher among new ventures that serve emerging markets. In contrast, the impact of formal processes for information use is higher among new ventures that serve established markets. We present managerial implications of our results. For example, a new venture with a strong market orientation can respond quickly to emerging marketplace needs, and can even seize the advantage from incumbents. If it is in an emerging market, however, the new venture management team should strive to excel at information acquisition; in an established market, it is important for the management team to excel at information utilization.     

HANDLING NONRESPONSE IN LOGISTICS RESEARCH

Assessing and controlling for nonresponse bias is critical for the validity and reliability of survey‐based logistics research. In order to gain a better understanding of how researchers assess and report nonresponse bias in their studies, we analyzed articles published from 1998 through 2007 in three top logistics journals (International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, Journal of Business Logistics, Transportation Journal). We describe and explore how nonresponse has been handled in these articles. Our findings show that first, survey response rates have declined over time; this influences the generalizability of survey results in case of nonresponse. Second, an average of 44% of published mail survey articles does not mention tests for detecting nonresponse bias.     

贵州省高校思想政治课现状研究

采用个案问卷调查法，对贵阳市7所本科高校学生思想政治课教学效果、教师素质、教学方式、教学内容、实践教学、教学辅导、思想政治教育对学生的实际生活影响以及学生对该课的教学要求进行了调查，结果显示，当前思想政治教育现状存在一定程度的不足，需学校进一步提高对思想政治课的重视程度，提高教师的整体素质，采取各种有效措施加强高校学生对思想政治课的认同。     

The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

A survey on pickup and delivery problems

This paper is the first part of a comprehensive survey on pickup and delivery problems. Basically, two problem classes can be distinguished. The first class, discussed in this paper, deals with the transportation of goods from the depot to linehaul customers and from backhaul customers to the depot. This class is denoted as Vehicle Routing Problems with Backhauls (VRPB). Four subtypes can be considered, namely the Vehicle Routing Problem with Clustered Backhauls (VRPCB – all linehauls before backhauls), the Vehicle Routing Problem with Mixed linehauls and Backhauls (VRPMB – any sequence of linehauls and backhauls permitted), the Vehicle Routing Problem with Divisible Delivery and Pickup (VRPDDP – customers demanding delivery and pickup service can be visited twice), and the Vehicle Routing Problem with Simultaneous Delivery and Pickup (VRPSDP – customers demanding both services have to be visited exactly once). The second class, dealt with in the second part of this survey, refers to all those problems where goods are transported between pickup and delivery locations. These are the Pickup and Delivery Vehicle Routing Problem (PDVRP – unpaired pickup and delivery points), the classical Pickup and Delivery Problem (PDP – paired pickup and delivery points), and the Dial-A-Ride Problem (DARP – passenger transportation between paired pickup and delivery points and user inconvenience taken into consideration). Single as well as multi vehicle versions of the mathematical problem formulations are given for all four VRPB types, the corresponding exact, heuristic, and metaheuristic solution methods are discussed.