Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance*

This paper reviews the practice and performance of revenue forecasting in selected OECD countries. It turns out that the cross‐country differences in the performance of revenue forecasting are first of all associated with uncertainty about the macroeconomic fundamentals. To some extent, they are also driven by country characteristics such as the importance of corporate and (personal) income taxes. Also, differences in the timing of the forecasts prove important. However, controlling for these differences, we find that the independence of revenue forecasting from possible government manipulation exerts a robust, significantly positive effect on the accuracy of revenue forecasts.     

浅析机队规划

随着世界金融危机的出现,航空公司的运营效益受到了很大的影响,如何提高航空公司的经济效益是当今民航界的又一主题。文章对提高我国航空公司运行效率有一定的理论指导意义。     

A parsimonious model to forecast financial distress,based on audit evidence

This paper provides evidence that audit reports convey relevant evidence for inferring the existence of underlying, unrevealed, financial imbalances. Unlike previous works, which studied US listed-firms bankruptcy, our research deals with Spanish non-financial SMEs under financial stress. Our results indicate that the audit of distressed SMEs has several distinctive features: higher auditor rotation, more qualified reports, and non-compliance with deadlines to approve and file the annual financial statements. We use this evidence to build and test a parsimonious and reliable forecast model. Several implications for auditors’ independence, information quality, and failure forecast are discussed.     

世界旅游发展：2008年回顾和2009年展望

2008年全球经济衰退严重冲击世界旅游发展，不仅影响到全球国际入境旅游增长率大幅度下滑，而且使世界旅游经济主要指标也不同程度下降。随着全球经济进一步衰退，世界经济增长率继续下滑及各种经济因素的影响，使2009年世界旅游经济的增长与发展将继续面临严峻的挑战。     

我国经济增长预测研究新探——基于分类变量的扩散指标法

基于分类变量的扩散指标方法是在Stock and Watson所提出的扩散指标法的基础上，利用变量之间的相似系数先对变量进行聚类分析，根据各变量的相似程度的大小分为几个变量子集，然后分别从变量子集中提取扩散指标。应用基于变量分类的扩散指标方法对我国经济增长的预测结果表明，同扩散指标法相比，该方法更加充分利用了原始数据中的有用信息，预测精度很高，因而是对经济增长进行预测的另一种有效方法。     

基于马尔柯夫分析的计算机预测和决策应用

从DSS应用现状出发,介绍了马尔柯夫分析的定义和数学原理,阐述了马尔柯夫分析的过程和预测的基本步骤,利用Excel设计了进行市场占有率预测的应用模型,并进行了仿真预测和决策分析。测试表明,应用模型简便通用,操作方便,提高了预测的计算精度和效率。     

新疆艾维尔沟矿区焦煤井田地质灾害评估及防治措施

对拟建矿区进行地质灾害危险性现状评估,预测工程建设引发或加剧地质灾害的危险性程度,提出了相关的防治措施。     

Conditional Persistence of Earnings Components and Accounting Anomalies

We suggest that the failure of investors to distinguish between an earnings component's autocorrelation coefficient (unconditional persistence) and the marginal contribution of that component's persistence to the persistence of earnings (conditional persistence) provides a partial explanation of post‐earnings‐announcement drift, post‐revenue‐announcement drift, and the accrual anomaly. When the conditional persistence of revenue surprises is high (low) relative to its unconditional persistence, both the post‐earnings‐announcement drift and the post‐revenue‐announcement drift are high (low), because investors’ under‐reaction to revenues and earnings is stronger when the persistence of revenue surprises is more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings surprises. Also, the mispricing of accruals decreases substantially when the conditional persistence of accruals is high relative to its unconditional persistence, because investors’ over‐reaction to accruals is mitigated when the persistence of accruals is indeed more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings. Our findings also suggest that financial analysts’ failure to distinguish between unconditional and conditional persistence of revenues and accruals results in more biased revenue and earnings predictions.     

配件物流中产品不同生命周期的配件库存预测

研究同一产品在不同生命周期对配件的库存预测方法,生命周期包括新产品,成熟产品,产品生命后周期。其中对成熟产品,产品生命后周期的配件预测给出了预测公式。