Interrelationship between crude oil and the stock markets of major demanders and suppliers in emerging and developed markets

This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between the stock markets of advanced and emerging oil-exporting and oil-importing countries and the international crude oil price indices. The results reveal that the time-varying among the oil-exporting and oil-importing countries responds similarly to aggregate supply- and demand-side effects. Oil-exporting countries have a slightly higher integration with the oil markets, while oil supply shocks have a slightly higher impact on emerging oil-exporting countries. The oil markets exhibit a lower time-varying relationship with the Asia-Pacific oil-importing markets, which indicates those markets may be attractive to investors during periods of turbulence in the oil market.     

Assessing effects of federal crop insurance supply on acreage and yield of specialty crops

Crop insurance may affect harvested acreage and yield by influencing producers’ behavior such as land allocation and input use. Although specialty crops are a major source of farm income, especially on the U.S. west coast, they have not received as much attention as field crops in previous empirical studies. This paper assesses the effect of moral hazard and adverse selection associated with the federal crop insurance program (FCIP) on the acreage and yield of major specialty crops in California. An econometric method that expands the switching regression model is developed to assess the effect. Results suggest that federal crop insurance can change specialty crop growers’ production responses to climate and soil conditions. The moral hazard effect tends to increase the acreage and yield of the specialty crops, whereas the adverse selection effect tends to have the opposite effect. The overall effect of the FCIP on acreage and yield of specialty crops is found to be moderate.     

What drives managers to insource production? Evidence from a behavioural experiment

Insourcing to countermand previous outsourcing decisions is becoming a widespread practice among firms. While the underlying performance drivers for firms (e.g., lead times, responsiveness, or security of supply) are well understood, the behavioural aspects underlying managerial decision-making processes regarding insourcing remain overlooked in empirical research. We study the effects of managers' attitudes toward insourcing, their perceived behavioural control (PBC) over the respective insourcing decision, and the effect of mimetic pressure on insourcing decision intentions and behaviour, while grounding our model in the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). We test hypotheses with data gathered in a vignette-based experiment among 145 managers and apply stepwise regression analysis to find support for the positive effects of attitude and mimetic pressure on intentions to insource. Our results found no support for the effect of managers’ PBC. We find moderation effects among the internal drivers (attitude and PBC) and between internal and external drivers (attitude and mimetic pressure) on insourcing behaviour. With these findings, we provide evidence of a unique boundary condition to the TPB in the insourcing context by explaining supply chain design choices with neo-classical and behavioural theory. We emphasize important behavioural aspects in insourcing decision-making and caution supply managers in this regard.     

我国水稻产业供给侧结构性改革的思考

[目的]文章在供给侧改革视角下对水稻供需的结构性矛盾等方面进行梳理,分析基于供给侧改革战略的关键环节、实施路径和未来发展趋势,以期为制定我国水稻供给侧改革战略提供参考。[方法]采用文献分析法和调查研究法,从我国水稻生产供求结构、价格"天花板"和成本"地板"双重挤压、水稻生产的资源环境、市场调节等方面分析了我国水稻产业供给侧的现状和存在的问题;通过日本、泰国、中国五常大米政策特点和经验教训的启示,提出了我国水稻产业供给侧结构性改革的策略。[结果]在分析我国水稻产业供给侧现状的基础上,总结得出水稻产业供给侧改革措施:优化水稻产业空间和功能布局,以项目带动水稻产业结构调整,提高和优化稻米品种品质结构、审定标准向抗性优质专用水稻品种倾斜,因地制宜调减水稻生产面积,调整国家收储稻米标准,延长水稻全产业链等。[结论]加速我国水稻产业供给侧改革,能促进稻米产业结构快速升级,有效破解稻米产业的结构性矛盾,增强我国稻米产业可持续发展能力和国际竞争力。     

考虑零售商销售努力的双渠道供应链定价策略研究

随着电子商务市场的日益成熟,制造商建设线上直销渠道来适应新的商品销售环境成为趋势。制造商线上直销渠道的建立占领了部分原本属于线下零售渠道的市场份额,对线下零售渠道造成冲击。针对双渠道供应链中的竞争,将零售商销售努力行为考虑在内,通过构建博弈模型分别研究了在集中决策模式和分散决策模式下,制造商与零售商的定价策略。研究发现,在集中决策模式下,线下零售渠道与线上直销渠道之间的价格差异随着两个渠道潜在需求量之间差异的增大而增大,并且两个渠道的最优价格分别与其市场潜在需求成正比。在分散决策模式下,两个渠道的最优价格亦与潜在需求成正比,并且线下零售渠道的最优价格随零售商销售努力程度的增加而增加,线上直销渠道的最优价格随着零售商销售努力程度的增加而减少。     

Rural school access and the agricultural transformation

Improving children's access to primary and secondary education is a strategic goal for many global development agencies and government policymakers. Nevertheless, there is relatively little research examining how changes in rural school supply affect future labor markets. We leverage variation in the timing and location of secondary school construction in Southern Mexico to identify the effects of school supply on labor outcomes. We find that school construction increases expected education for school-aged children by about 4 years and raises the share of years working in the nonagricultural sector between the ages of 18–22 by 29.8 percentage points. The magnitude of the effects on share of years doing nonagricultural work is smaller for individuals from homes where an indigenous language is spoken. Our findings indicate that rural school construction in less-developed countries can accelerate the transformation from agricultural to nonagricultural economies, but there may be heterogeneous effects across socioeconomic groups and ethnicities.     

基础设施类型、产业特征与中国企业出口行为

在异质性企业理论框架下,引入教育供给因素,将其视为社会型基础设施与交通基础设施进行比较研究;通过合并基础设施数据与工业企业数据分析两类基础设施对企业出口的异质性影响。实证研究显示:不同类型基础设施对企业出口产生不同影响,其中地区教育供给对企业出口促进作用显著,交通基础设施对企业出口作用并不稳健;不同基础设施对沿海和内陆地区企业出口有差异化影响;在产业特征框架下,基础设施供给对密集使用某类基础设施的企业出口促进作用明显。地方政府应重视社会型基础设施的贸易促进作用,调整地区基础设施投资结构。     

互联网视角下供应链金融的新发展

在这个网络社会愈发深化的时代,通过互联网科技完善和发展线上供应链金融成为必要的发展方向。本文首先梳理了传统供应链金融的基本模式,发现了其存在的不足;然后重点介绍了当前三种主要的线上供应链金融模式,总结了线上供应链金融的优势;最后,提出相关政策建议,认为金融机构应该不断升级线上供应链金融产品,逐步完善供应链金融线上操作系统,监管机构需要出台更加严格的监管规则对线上供应链金融进行有效监管。     

Land use regulation and urban land value: Evidence from China

Land use regulation has always been regarded as one of the most crucial means of macro-control of urban growth, which can affect a city’s land values directly and further determine related urban economic well-being. Since the New Type Urbanization Strategy proposed by the government in 2014, China’s mode of urban growth has been transformed from addressing “quantity” to “quality" in the urbanization process. In this case, the regulation of land use by the Chinese government plays a more important role in urban growth. With their planned land regulatory scheme, the various instruments employed by Chinese governments have quite different mechanisms influencing land prices. However, there are no rigorous studies focusing on the land use regulation system and its impact on land values to date, particular in China. This study seeks to explore how land use regulation affects urban land values through the systematic lens. We summarize the main land use regulatory instruments based on the analysis of China’s planned land use system and urban land banking system, including the construction land quota, constraints on the allowed floor area ratio (FAR) of each land transaction parcel, and land supply restrictions. A new dataset based on land transaction data from 2007 to 2016 that covers 286 prefectural cities from the country’s coastal, central, and western regions is used in the empirical analysis. The results show that the effects of the floor area ratio (FAR) on land values are significant and positive, with the residential and commercial land supply ratio being a key factor. Moreover, the results imply that the effects of constraints on FAR and commercial land supply vary between regions. These findings indicate that the Chinese land market is considerably distorted by excessive administrative interventions by local governments, in the stage of urban transition guided, the capable regulatory instruments could play an important role in adjusting urban land prices and hence impact on urban growth.     

General existence of competitive equilibrium in the growth model with an endogenous labor–leisure choice

We prove the existence of competitive equilibrium in the canonical optimal growth model with elastic labor supply under general conditions. In this model, strong conditions to rule out corner solutions are often not well justified. We show using a separation argument that there exist Lagrange multipliers that can be viewed as a system of competitive prices. Neither Inada conditions, nor strict concavity, nor homogeneity, nor differentiability are required for existence of a competitive equilibrium. Thus, we cover important specifications used in the macroeconomics literature for which existence of a competitive equilibrium is not well understood. We give examples to illustrate the violation of the conditions used in earlier existence results but where a competitive equilibrium can be shown to exist following the approach in this paper.