科学与技术耦合效果评价——科技互补效应和成本效应分析

考虑到当前创新环境日益复杂化，科学与技术耦合系统已成为一个受系统内外因共同影响而发生演化的开放系统。在为耦合系统构建状态空间模型的基础上，通过求解该模型，刻画科学技术化强度和技术科学化强度，据此分析科学与技术互动产生的互补效应和成本效应，评价29个省份的科学与技术耦合效果，并测度地区科技发展所属耦合路径类型。研究表明，不同省份推进科学技术化进程和技术科学化进程的差异性显著；科学与技术耦合效果最佳并不能说明地区科技发展速度最快；绝大多数省份的科技耦合路径表现为科技中立路径，占比最小的路径为技术强势路径。基于不同省份的耦合情况差异，提出针对性建议。     

Risk models-at-risk

The experience from the global financial crisis has raised serious concerns about the accuracy of standard risk measures as tools for the quantification of extreme downward risks. A key reason for this is that risk measures are subject to a model risk due, e.g. to specification and estimation uncertainty. While regulators have proposed that financial institutions assess the model risk, there is no accepted approach for computing such a risk. We propose a remedy for this by a general framework for the computation of risk measures robust to model risk by empirically adjusting the imperfect risk forecasts by outcomes from backtesting frameworks, considering the desirable quality of VaR models such as the frequency, independence and magnitude of violations. We also provide a fair comparison between the main risk models using the same metric that corresponds to model risk required corrections.     

中国的世界遗产管理之路--黄山模式评价及其更新(下)

本文认为，黄山模式的更新，主要应进一步解决好以下三方面问题，即：遗产管理标准；遗产经营制度；遗产与当地社区的关系。这就是说：①黄山必须按“遗产真实性与完整性”原则，制定一系列可操作的管理标准，并将旅游服务标准按遗产保护要求而绿色化；②黄山旅游活动必须严格按“山上游，山下居”(即“景区游，区外居”)的方式进行，而不是过去的“山上游，山上居”；③黄山的经营必须破除“一套班子，两块牌子”的传统做法，对于遗产(即景区)，应按“非营利”制度经营，对于非遗产类活动(如食、住、行等)，则按市场体制经营；④黄山应妥善地解决有关的行政区划问题，使得为黄山保护提供主要支持的当地社区能从黄山旅游业发展中真正受益。     

中国的世界遗产管理之路--黄山模式评价及其更新(上)

黄山一直被视为中国文化与自然遗产管理的样板单位。本文基于对黄山诸多侧面的认真调查 ,在肯定黄山模式成就的同时 ,指出黄山模式更新的必要性与迫切性。本文认为 ,黄山模式的意义在于它适应当代社会和经济的发展趋势 ,在遗产管理中引入市场机制 ,较好地解决了遗产管理费用问题以及对当地的经济贡献问题。同时 ,本文还认为 ,作为一个现代社会的世界遗产管理单位 ,黄山正面临着命运攸关的挑战。     

A Tale of Two Cities: Case Studies of Group Support Systems Transition

Research shows that, under certain circumstances, people using GSS can be substantially more productive than people who do not. However GSS has been slow to transition into the workplace. This paper argues that the Technology Transition Model (TTM) may be a useful way to explain this seeming paradox. The paper presents a case study of GSS transition in two organizations – one where a self-sustaining and growing community of users emerged, and one where it did not. Following TTM, it explores the frequency with which users perceived cognitive, economic, affective, political, social, and physical value from using the system. Comparison of the cases reveals differences in perceptions of value along several of these dimensions that are consistent with TTM. The findings suggest the model may be a useful way to explain the transition of collaboration technology, but more research will be required to test the model more rigorously.     

中国外贸进出口对税收的影响：理论与实证

对外贸易对中国的税收有怎样的影响?回答这一问题，对制定贸易政策有重要的现实意义。本文对1-2-3模型进行修正，将总产出区分为4种具有不同税收特征的产品，构建相应的税收模型，从理论上分析了对外贸易对税收有正面的影响。实际测算显示，一般贸易出口每增加1元人民币，会相应带动当年税收增加0．4～0．5元人民币。通过对季度数据的Granger因果检验和向量误差修正模型分析，本文发现出口增加对税收有持续的正面影响。     

Modeling how institutional investors allocate business to brokers

A model of how institutional investors evaluate and allocate business to brokers shows a complex pattern of influences. The broker's ability to execute transactions at appropriate prices is basic, but this combines with research and sales force performance to build a relationship that affects over-time allocation of business. It is difficult to separate relationship and selling performance, and relationship is subject to considerable decay. Research ability has a weak effect on business allocated on the basis of trading, while trading ability does affect business allocated on the basis of research.     

企业诊断的基础 自我评价模型

自我评价是一种诊断性评价 ,对于企业的持续改进和市场竞争力的提升具有非常重要的作用。模型的建立是任何类型评价进行的重要前提。因此 ,应建立一种自我评价模型 ,并从企业系统的各个方面对模型进行详细的说明 ,然后总结其主要特征。     

我国上市公司财务困境预测模型分析——基于我国A股上市公司研究

基于我国A股市场上市的ST公司和相对应的非ST公司,用Logistic回归的进入法和逐步法对上市公司财务困境预测模型进行了比较分析,得出结论:无论是模型的有效性,还是模型的判断准确率方面,Logistic回归的进入法均优于逐步法。     

阶梯电价政策的居民节能意愿与节能效果评估--基于广东案例的研究

以广东省为例,基于粤东、粤西、粤北及珠三角典型地市的社会调查,统计分析阶梯电价政策对居民节能意愿及家庭用电的影响;同时运用广东省月度电力数据,构建ARIMA模型,定量研究政策实施的节能效果。研究表明,阶梯电价政策的实施对改善居民节能意愿有积极影响,并在短期内有明显的节能效果,但随着时间推移,节能效果有所减弱。为设计与完善相关政策,未来需要从节能意愿、经济激励等角度切入,提升政策的针对性、有效性。