货币超发还是输入通胀？——基于MS—VAR模型的视角

通货膨胀及其影响因素之间固有的内生性使得采用单方程分析不可避免会产生偏差。本文运用MS—VAR模型并利用2001年1月～2011年12月月度数据对我国通胀及其影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明：（1）高通胀水平下货币供应量、石油价格波动以及国内需求和通胀预期对价格水平均会产生正向冲击,而人民币汇率波动对于价格水平的累计冲击响应效应为负;（2）相对而言,货币供应量变动对于通胀水平影响最大。（3）货币供应量上升太快是我国2007年下半年来物价居高不下的主要原因,与汇率变动以及国际石油价格波动等外部冲击因素关系不大。     

The new Keynesian Phillips curve: endogeneity and misspecification

The wrong or insignificant sign of the forcing variable in the new Keynesian Phillips curve estimations may be a result of the endogeneity of the labour share and misspecification of real marginal cost in the baseline model. We address the misspecification of real marginal cost by formulating a broad measure that features the labour share, output gap and supply shock variables. The endogeneity of the labour share is addressed by using an appropriate lag of the labour share in the Phillips curve. Reduced-form evidence from five developed and five emerging market economies support the empirical validity of the NKPC.     

On Endogeneity Bias: Some General Remarks and Correction of the ROIW Paper by Bourguignon,Ferreira, and Menéndez (2007)

This paper is a short note on the question of correcting for endogeneity bias in a regression. It also points out errors and omissions in the derivation of this bias in Bourguignon, Ferreira, and Menéndez (2007). We show that some assumptions needed for the derivation are not explicit and even under these assumptions, certain simplifications adopted are not valid. We support our points using simulation experiments.     

Southeastern European Trade Analysis: A Role for Endogenous CEFTA-2006?

The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact the Central European Free Trade Agreement of 2006 (CEFTA-2006) has had on trade and provide quantitative comparison with the original CEFTA and with trade liberalization under the EU integration process. The paper belongs to the strand of literature analyzing a free trade agreement in a gravity framework but treating the agreement as being potentially endogenous. The empirical evidence suggests that CEFTA-2006 exerted a positive, significant, and large effect on trade in Southeast Europe. This finding can be largely attributed to the distracted trade flows in the region over the 1990s. The effect of CEFTA-2006 has been estimated to be larger than the effect of the stabilization and association agreements. This counteracts the concern that the EU and the Southeastern European countries formed a "hub-and-spoke" structure in terms of trade.     

Trade,scale or social capital? Technological progress in poor and rich countries

Endogenous growth theory suggests scale and trade as the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The literature on social capital suggests that the levels of trust and participation in societies may affect cooperation and innovation. While there is evidence of the role of trade and inconclusive evidence on the role of social capital, previous studies have generally omitted two factors, out of the three mentioned, used small sample sizes and emphasized economic growth rather than technological progress. Our study addresses these shortcomings. We find robust evidence of the role of trade in fostering technological progress which is invariant to TFP proxies and independent of the debate on measuring TFP. Moreover, there is no clear role for scale, and a country rate of TFP growth seems to increase the most the more the country trades with dynamic economies that are different from. We uncover a positive effect of social capital, which is more significant in richer countries, suggesting that other characteristics, such as institutional quality, may be complementary to social capital. The paper's results are robust to different specification and estimation methods.     

Effect of trade openness on regional economic growth in China: revisiting the discussion

Increasing openness contributes to economic growth in developing countries, but the endogeneity problem impedes drawing this conclusion. This paper uses the constructed trade share to circumvent the effects of endogeneity according to a method proposed by Frankel and Romer. The results demonstrate that increasing openness has a positive impact on provinces’ GDP and GDP per capita. In addition, an increase in lagged openness is beneficial for present economic growth, and even openness gained many years ago, which is measured by the number of treaty ports, makes a difference in present economic growth.     

Ethnicity, Endogeneity, and Housing Tenure Choice

Home ownership rates for New Zealanders of European descent aged twenty five to fifty four are 16 percentage points higher than for Maori in the same age group. This article explores the relative attainment of home ownership of the two ethnic groups by estimating a series of tenure choice models and decomposing the difference in rates into endowment and residual effects. Particular attention is given to the endogeneity of current income and wealth relative to the tenure choice decision and to the methods for decomposing group mean differences. The article also applies more appropriate methods for estimating incomes and wealth than have been used in most previous studies of tenure choice. The study concludes that only a small proportion of differences in home ownership rates is explained by household endowments. It is shown that controlling for the endogeneity of income and wealth has a substantial impact on the tenure choice and decomposition results.     

Monetary Union,Trade Integration,and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe

This paper studies the impact of monetary arrangements on trade integration and business cycle correlation in late 19th century Europe. We estimate a gravity model and show that tighter monetary integration was associated with substantially higher trade, as in recent studies using contemporary data. For instance, the Austro-Hungarian monetary union improved trade between member states by a factor of 3. To explain this, we build and estimate a simple model where greater monetary integration weakens the current account constraint by fostering business cycle co-movements.     

Endogeneity in panel stochastic frontier models: an application to the Japanese cotton spinning industry

We present a panel stochastic frontier model that handles the endogeneity problem. This model can treat the endogeneity of both frontier and inefficiency variables. We apply our method to examine the technical efficiency of Japanese cotton spinning industry. Our results indicate that market concentration is endogenous, and when its endogeneity is properly handled, it has a larger negative impact on the technical efficiency of cotton spinning plants. We find that the exogenous model substantially overestimates efficiency in concentrated markets.