How is the hospitality and tourism industry different? An empirical test of some structural characteristics

Structural characteristics, such as competition, risk, leverage and capital intensity, directly impact the strategic management of firms operating within an industry. We provide an empirical test and formally compare the structural characteristics of the hospitality and tourism (HT) industry with other industries. Our results, based on a sample of firms from the S&P 1500 index over 21 years, show that the HT industry has higher leverage, higher risk, higher capital intensity and higher competitive rivalry than other industries in the U.S. economy. The formal identification and recognition of these differences provides justification for using the HT industry as a context for testing business theories, and can explain differences in decision-making and firm outcomes such as financial and social performance, as well as efficiency, growth, and survival of HT firms.     

中美房地产土地杠杆研究

本文通过引入可反映地价与房价间比例关系的土地杠杆假设,把土地杠杆值作为研究影响房价变动的显著性因素来考虑;认为房价对市场冲击做出反应的程度正相关于土地杠杆大小,高土地杠杆地区面对同样的经济冲击做出反应的程度也大。通过研究中美两国的房地产土地杠杆情况,分析其历史变动趋势和区域差异,发现两国土地杠杆值均呈现随时间不断上涨的态势;与美国情况相比,我国整体上土地杠杆值不高,但在一些大城市如上海,土地杠杆值很高且涨幅显著,需要引起重视。     

我国银行和地产类股价波动性对比研究

本文通过描述性统计和建立GARCH族模型,以2008年1月2日至2013年7月11日的银行和地产类股票日收盘价数据作为样本,对我国银行和地产类股指日收益率的波动性进行了对比研究。得到以下结论：银行和地产两类股票收益率序列都是平稳的,具有“尖峰厚尾”的特点,具有波动聚集性;两类收益率的波动均具有“长期记忆性”;均存在非对称效应。     

西部地区上市公司债务融资效应的实证研究——基于2007-2010年的经验数据

本文选取沪市西部地区53家上市公司作为研究样本,着重研究债务融资的税盾效应与财务杠杆效应。基于样本公司的债务融资现状,通过因子分析、主成分分析与多元回归分析揭示了债务融资效应与各影响因素之间的关联程度及显著水平。结论表明,当总资产息税前利润率大于债务利息率时,提高资产负债率,税盾效应、财务杠杆效应同时增大,进而增强债务融资效应;当总资产息税前利润率小于债务利息率时,提高资产负债率,税盾效应增大,财务杠杆表现为负效应,债务融资效应呈现不确定性。     

家庭债务与居民消费：一个文献综述

近年来我国家庭杠杆率快速上升,家庭债务与居民消费关系引发热议,相关文献 反映出：（1）家庭适度负债能促进消费增长;（2）家庭杠杆率上升存在临界值;（3）快速加 杠杆是主要风险来源;（4）识别家庭债务异质性可以缓解信贷约束。目前我国家庭杠杆率依 然处于合理区间,但需重视快速加杠杆带来的风险隐患。为保持居民消费平稳增长,本文提出 从供给侧优化金融条件,从需求侧约束快速加杠杆行为,并发挥减税的收入调节作用等建议。     

Leverage, volatility and executive stock options

This paper studies how an optimal wage contract can be implemented using stock options, and derives the properties of the optimal contract with stock options. Specifically, we show how the exercise price and the size of the option grant should change in response to changes in exogenous parameters. First, for a fixed exercise price of executive stock options, the size of the option grant decreases in the riskiness of a desired investment policy, decreases in the volatility of return from the risky project, and increases in leverage. Second, for a fixed size of the option grant, the optimal exercise price of managerial stock options increases in the riskiness of a desired investment policy, increases in the volatility of return from the risky project, and decreases in leverage. Several empirical predictions are drawn from these conclusions regarding the pay-performance sensitivity of management compensation.     

Why do over-deviated firms from target leverage undertake foreign acquisitions?

This paper examines how deviation from firms’ target leverage influences their decisions on undertaking foreign acquisitions. Using a sample of 5746 completed bids by UK acquirers from 1987 to 2012, we observe that over-deviated firms are more likely to acquire foreign targets. Consistent with co-insurance theory, we find that over-deviated firms engage in foreign acquisition deals to relieve their financial constraints and to mitigate their financial distress risk. We also note that foreign acquisitions enhance over-deviated firms’ value and performance, measured by Tobin’s q and return on assets (ROA) respectively. These findings support the view that over-deviated firms pursue the most value-enhancing acquisitions. Overall, this paper suggests that co-insurance effects, value creation and performance improvements are the main incentives for over-deviated firms’ involvement in foreign acquisitions.     

中国主权资产负债表及其风险评估(上)

本文基于国民资产负债表的理论框架,运用现有数据并通过必要的估算,初步编制了2000—2010年的中国主权资产负债表。结果显示,中国各年主权资产净额均为正值且呈上升趋势。这表明,中国政府拥有足够的主权资产来覆盖其主权负债。因此,在不短的时期内,中国发生主权债务危机的可能性极低。对总债务水平与全社会杠杆率(即总债务/GDP)的分析显示:中国的全社会杠杆率虽高于金砖国家,但远低于所有的发达经济体,总体上处在温和、可控的阶段。但是,近年来该杠杆率的提高速度很快,须引起关注。分部门的分析显示:企业负债率(占GDP比重)很高,构成中国资产负债表的显著特色。2010年,该负债率已逾100%,超过OECD国家90%的阈值,值得高度警惕。     

中国通货膨胀的波动性与杠杆效应研究——基于条件异方差模型的实证分析

利用条件异方差模型对我国居民消费价格指数建模,并基于此展开对中国通货膨胀的一般特征进行分析、研究。实证结果表明,我国的通货膨胀具有强惯性、波动集群性、杠杆效应等特征。依据我国通货膨胀的动态特征和机制来制定相应的货币政策将有助于缩短货币政策的时滞和合理疏导微观主体的通胀预期,也有利于正确地引导和稳定市场经济,并最终能提高货币政策的有效性。所以,我国通货膨胀治理过程中必须充分考虑我国通货膨胀特征的影响,及时采取措施消除那些与市场制度逻辑不一致的政策传导因素以及对政策信号不能作出理性反应的市场因素。