Assessing hospital system resilience to disaster events involving physical damage and Demand Surge

This paper investigates the effectiveness of formalized collaboration strategies through which patients can be transferred and resources, including staff, equipment and supplies, can be shared across hospitals in response to a disaster incident involving mass casualties and area-wide damage. Inflicted damage can affect hospital infrastructure and its supporting lifelines, thus impacting capacity and capability or, ultimately, services that are provided. Using a discrete event simulation framework and underlying open queuing network conceptualization involving patient flows through 9 critical units of each hospital, impacts on critical resources, physical spaces and demand are modeled and the hospital system's resilience to these hazard events is evaluated. Findings from numerical experiments on a case study involving multiple hospitals spaced over a large metropolitan region replicating a system similar to the Johns Hopkins Hospital System show the potential of strategies involving not only transfers and resource sharing, but also joint capacity enhancement alternatives to improve post-disaster emergency health care service delivery through joint action.     

Business adaptation to climate change: American ski resorts and warmer temperatures

How do firms adapt to the intensity of adverse chronic conditions stemming from the natural environment? We seek to contribute to the debate on whether environmental adversity tends to be positively or negatively related to adaptation. We propose that both diverging perspectives tend to predict part of firms' adaptation to nature adversity intensity. This is because of the interplay between latent counterbalancing mechanisms. First, at mild levels of nature adversity intensity, organizational inertial forces constrain organizations' willingness to adapt. Second, at medium levels of nature adversity intensity, coalition building and internal organizational politics allow managers to deploy adaptation resilience capabilities. Third, at severe levels, growing natural forces eventually impose limits beyond which protective adaptation becomes unviable. Our findings from a 2001 to 2013 analysis of western U.S. ski resorts' adaptation to temperature conditions indicate that firms facing medium levels of nature adversity intensity appear more likely to engage in higher levels of adaptation whereas those experiencing lower and higher intensity show a tendency for lower levels of adaptation, yielding an inverted U‐shaped relationship.     

Accounting and the formation of share market prices over time: a mathematical institutional economic analysis through simulation and experiment

This article develops a heterogeneous agents-based model to examine the emergent dynamic properties of share market price formation over time, with a view on financial market stability under alternative accounting regimes. In the model, individual heterogeneous investors interact with each other and with institutional devices which are an accounting system (related to the business firm) and a price system (related to the Share Exchange). These interactions provide mechanisms for transmission through which firm-specific (accounting signal) and market-driven (aggregate price) factors can act. A baseline simulation analysis assesses the financial market stability under three alternative accounting designs, namely two kinds of historical cost accounting regime and one kind of fair-value (mark-to-market) accounting regime. The former prove to better stabilize the financial system in terms of market volatility and exuberance in perfectly balanced conditions between speculative and fundamentalist beliefs and intentions. An evolutionary analysis is then developed by varying the relative degree of speculative attitudes between the two sides of the market. Historical cost accounting regimes further prove to make the financial system more resilient to speculative waves occurring at inter-individual level. Baseline findings are further corroborated through experimental analysis in twelve artificial financial systems. This mathematical institutional economic analysis has general implications for both designing accounting systems aimed at enhancing financial market stability and preventing procyclicality, and the study of accounting information process in the formation of share market prices over time.     

多重压力胁迫下东北黑土区耕地韧性研究及其启示 ——以黑龙江省拜泉县为例

研究目的：将韧性理论引入耕地保护研究,评价黑土区耕地韧性进而揭示其短板要素,提出黑土区耕地韧性的提升路径与政策建议。研究方法：基于覆盖黑龙江省拜泉县16个乡镇、154个行政村的问卷调查及土地遥感数据,从韧性发生学视角构建“压力—状态—响应”模型,以村域为单元,利用熵值法综合评价拜泉县耕地韧性。研究结果：（1）拜泉县耕地韧性为0.421,处于中等偏下水平,耕地韧性不足;（2）立地条件对耕地韧性具有显著负向作用,耕地韧性较高的村庄集中于远离县城且地面坡度较低的地区,靠近县城且地面坡度较大的村庄耕地韧性相对较低;（3）农田排涝设施短缺、耕地劳动力投入不足是制约拜泉县耕地韧性的关键短板因素,耕地集中连片程度、耕地的机械、化肥投入以及粮食产出与收入有效支撑了拜泉县耕地韧性。研究结论：针对外界环境的复杂性、动态性以及未来发展的不确定性,有效实施耕地保护应强调基于韧性的治理理念。一方面要注重不同地域耕地内核系统与外界环境系统的交互作用方式与过程,诊断识别影响耕地质量与生产力的关键短板因素并制定应对措施;另一方面要培育增强对发展环境变化和外界不确定性的研判能力,及时调整耕地保护策略,从而有效规避风险挑战或将损失降到最低。     

The Governance of Rural Land in a Liberalised World

Liberalisation of agricultural policies reduces the influence of policy on land‐use decisions, but environmental policy objectives remain. Governance provides an approach that recognises the role of institutions and collective action. The formulation of environmental policy objectives in terms of the provision of public goods raises questions as to the role of economic valuation and as to whether the definition of ‘goods’ may misdirect policy attention. An alternative approach relates to ecosystem services and sees management issues in terms of ecosystem resilience and the adaptive governance of socio‐ecological systems. Governance involves a mix of regulation, markets, government incentives and collective action. Regulation sets the domain within which markets operate and social judgements as to property rights are required as a basis for exchanges. Depending on commodity prices, agri‐environment schemes may be required either to reduce agricultural production intensity or to keep land under production. The diffuse nature of the environmental benefits and costs of land uses, the complexity of ecosystems and the need to co‐ordinate land management decisions indicate a role for local adaptive co‐management of land resources. Governments play a major role in supporting the institutional framework within which this can take place.     

The value of bank capital buffers in maintaining financial system resilience

There is a current controversy concerning the appropriate size of banks’ capital requirements, and the trade-off between the costs and benefits of implementing higher capital requirements. We quantify the size of capital buffers required to reduce system-wide losses using confidential regulatory data for Australian banks from 2002 to 2014 and annual public accounts from 1978 to 2014. We find that a moderate increase in bank capital buffers is sufficient to maintain financial system resilience, even after taking economic downturns into consideration. Furthermore, while banks benefit from paying a lower cost of debt when they have a higher capital buffer, lending volumes are lower indicating that credit supply may be hampered if bank capital levels are too high within a financial system.     

The evolution of aquatic agricultural systems in Southwest Bangladesh in response to salinity and other drivers of change

Aquatic agricultural systems (AAS) in coastal Southwest Bangladesh have evolved in response to a number of stimuli and constraints including improving market access, technological change, and salinization. Farming systems in the region are highly dynamic, and are characterized by the integration of varying combinations of freshwater prawns, rice, fish, vegetables, and brackish water shrimp. This paper examines the developmental history, productivity, and profitability of three distinct AAS: a low-salinity freshwater prawn-dominated system; an intermediate-salinity-mixed prawn and shrimp system, and a high-salinity shrimp-dominated system. Productivity, cropping intensity, and profitability are found to be highest in the diversified low- and intermediate-salinity systems, and lower in the high-salinity system, where cultivation of rice and vegetables is no longer possible. The paper concludes that more diverse integrated systems reduce risk and vulnerability for farming households. Salinization is found to be a double-edged sword – proving a stimulus to diversification at low levels, but reducing agro-biodiversity at higher salt concentrations. While the adaptation strategies in all systems have been successful in maintaining or improving most, though not all, system functions due to high levels of social resilience, support for effective community-based adaptation strategies will enable continued transformation and adaptation to future drivers of change.     

A resilience-based model for performance evaluation of information systems: the case of a gas company

Information systems (IS) are strongly influenced by changes in new technology and should react swiftly in response to external conditions. Resilience engineering is a new method that can enable these systems to absorb changes. In this study, a new framework is presented for performance evaluation of IS that includes DeLone and McLean’s factors of success in addition to resilience. Hence, this study is an attempt to evaluate the impact of resilience on IS by the proposed model in Iranian Gas Engineering and Development Company via the data obtained from questionnaires and Fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis (FDEA) approach. First, FDEA model with α-cut = 0.05 was identified as the most suitable model to this application by performing all Banker, Charnes and Cooper and Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes models of and FDEA and selecting the appropriate model based on maximum mean efficiency. Then, the factors were ranked based on the results of sensitivity analysis, which showed resilience had a significantly higher impact on the proposed model relative to other factors. The results of this study were then verified by conducting the related ANOVA test. This is the first study that examines the impact of resilience on IS by statistical and mathematical approaches.     

Post-disaster grain supply chain resilience with government aid

Assessing the disruption and resilience of the agricultural grain supply chain is critical to ensure grain supply and stabilize grain price in the final market. This research proposes a quantitative model to analyze how a grain processor regains robustness when supply is disrupted by a natural disaster upstream, and how this disruption affects grain retailers downstream. Two supply chain recovery methods, contingent sourcing and government aid, are considered for grain processor recovery. The results show that (1) a processor prefers timely full recovery, and (2) government aid as an intervention means is indispensable but cannot fully replace the backup supplier.