跨国公司生产转移与东道国技术选择——基于创新与模仿的理论模型

跨国公司生产转移带来的技术转移将导致发展中东道国技术进步,这种技术进步以创新-模仿-再创新-再模仿的演变路径进行.发达国家创新率增长促进了跨国化率和南方模仿率增长,而南方模仿率增长又降低了北方跨国化率,从而降低了南方FDI流入量或FDI撤出南方,因此,北方跨国化率和南方模仿率最终将趋于稳态均衡.为了最优化模仿行为,南方将选择技术含量适宜的新产品进行模仿.政策含义是,当南北方技术差距较大时,南方没有必要实施严格的知识产权保护:当南北方技术差距相对较小时,南方才有必要在知识产权保护方面作出努力,以保证北方的跨国化率不降低.     

广东省经济开放度与经济增长关系的实证研究

运用协整分析技术、Granger因果关系检验和误差修正模型,对广东省经济开放度与经济增长的长期均衡和短期波动进行实证分析,结果表明经济开放度各项指标与经济增长均存在正向的协整关系,GDP增长是其外资依存度和实际关税率提高的原因,而外贸依存度的提高促进了GDP的增长;经济增长与粤港贸易依存度互为因果关系,相互之间存在较强的协整关系;同时,各项指标具有较大的波动幅度,短期波动对长期均衡的回调速度也较大.因此,大力提高引进外资的质量和水平,转变对外贸易增长方式,推进区域经济合作的全面发展,是广东省外向型经济实现持续稳定增长的主要途径.     

转移价格的供应链激励机制与道德风险问题研究

考虑一个由制造商与分销商组成的供应链,制造商通过广告投入拉动产品销售,分销商通过促销活动推动产品销售。如果用一个制造商和两个分销商构成的供应链模型,来研究供应链中的博弈关系、激励机制和道德风险问题。只有给出两分销商的Nash均衡结果以及制造商与两分销商间的Nash均衡结果,才能解决供应链中的激励机制的设计。然后通过支付函数的全微分,来揭示供应链中的道德风险问题,从而证明供应链内部存在囚徒困境现象。     

电力市场发电侧竞价上网机制有效性分析

研究电力市场中发电侧竞价上网机制有效运行的前提条件,并在该前提条件下,利用NASH均衡理论 和概率论理论分析了发电侧竞价上网机制有效运行的内部机理,从理论上证明了发电侧竞价上网机制是一种 非常有效的制度安排。     

我国政府间财政能力及其均衡制度研究

构建社会主义和谐社会离不开政府间财政能力的均衡配置。虽然财政能力均衡理论在国外已有50多年的历史,且均衡制度已比较完善,但我国以转移支付为主要内容的财政能力均衡制度建设还处于起步阶段。我国政府间财政能力纵向配置和横向配置的实证分析结果表明,我国转移支付制度的效果不佳,还存在着许多问题。这就需要我们借鉴国外的财政能力均衡制度来完善我国的政府转移支付制度。     

Equilibrium solutions for resource dilemmas

Considered in this article is a class of resource dilemma games designed to study interactive decision behavior in the face of both strategic and environmental uncertainty. Groups of n members are asked to share a common resource pool whose exact size, x, is not known. Rather, x is sampled randomly from a uniform probability distribution which is common knowledge. Each group member j(j=1,...,n) requests r _j units from the random resource pool. Individual decisions are made independently and anonymously. Preplay communication is prohibited. If (r ₁+r ₂+...+r _n ) x, each member j is granted his/her request; otherwise, group members get nothing. We derive the Nash equilibrium solution for this resource dilemma game, and compare it to an expected utility model originally proposed by Suleiman and Rapoport (1988). We then show that the equilibrium solution accounts for the major qualitative features of experimental results reported in two previous studies.     

International good market segmentation and financial innovation

While international capital flows are now well liberalized, markets for goods remain segmented. To investigate how financial innovation may relieve the effects of this segmentation on risk sharing, we examine a series of two-country economies with internationally segmented good markets, distinguished by the available financial securities. Sufficient conditions for efficiency include complete international financial markets together with liberalized international financial flows. Under these conditions, heterogeneous agents from the same country may use securities as a substitute for the international shipment of goods. This allows them to partially circumvent the segmentation, allowing for efficient risk sharing.     

逆向淘汰、财政补贴与农业的低效率发展——基于湘北农村的调查研究

农村社会劳动力转移的逆向淘汰趋势将使我国的农业逐渐失去自生能力,而不具备自生能力的农业经济组织是不能依靠财政补贴提高经济效率的。如果在劳动力逆向淘汰使农业生产失去活力的条件下,政府提高对农业的财政补贴,势必导致我国的农业发展陷入低效率均衡的陷阱。     

The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59–98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is ?6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.     

Fertilizer subsidies and food self‐sufficiency in Indonesia

Indonesia is a net importer of almost all of its staple foods. National self‐sufficiency in food, especially the main staple, rice, is a core objective of economic policy. Poverty reduction is also a core policy objective. Since the 1970s, Indonesia has used agricultural input subsidies, especially on fertilizer, to stimulate agricultural production, largely in pursuit of the goal of rice self‐sufficiency. More recently, it has also used output protection, especially in rice, for the same purpose. This article utilizes a multisectoral, multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy to study the trade‐offs between the goals of self‐sufficiency and poverty reduction when two alternative means are used to achieve them: a fertilizer subsidy, on the one hand, and output protection, on the other. It does this by analyzing the aggregate and distributional effects of these two sets of policies and by comparing their effects with nonintervention. The analysis shows that, in terms of its effects on poverty, a fertilizer subsidy can be a more effective instrument for achieving the goal of rice self‐sufficiency than final product import restrictions.