Risk-sharing and Growth: The Role of Precautionary Savings in the "Education" Model

While the "risk amelioration" literature suggests that risk-sharing channels savings into risky but productive technologies and hence favours growth, models focused on precautionary savings reverse this conclusion. We solve, by means of numerical techniques, a model based on human capital accumulation through education, and find that the increase in precautionary savings makes labour more productive in the goods sector and draws resources from education, which is the "growth leading" activity. Hence, we establish a result favourable to financial integration, even in a model where precautionary savings play an important role.     

On the predictability of knowledge formation: The tortuous link between regional specialization trade, and development

This paper examines the relation between industrial mix, trade, and regional productivity growth. For this purpose, a dynamic model of the open economy with diversified sectoral knowledge formation and incomplete interregional knowledge diffusion is constructed. The theoretical framework is first used to show the consequences of increasing globalization on regional growth. It is then applied to German regional data in order to investigate whether there is evidence of generally specified patterns of knowledge formation. It emerges that some causal relationships are robust for the case of German regions but cannot be exploited by economic policy in general.     

解析GDP增长率

GDP是人们生活中使用最频繁的一个统计指标,但存在对这个指标使用过度的现象,。本文首先从国民经济核算的角度在对GDP指标全面分析后认为：GDP有重大缺陷和偏差,GDP不能区别经济增长的数量和质量,GDP不能反映知识产出,GDP的增加只是一种手段,GDP的增加不能区别经济的表面增加和实际增加。必须正确理解、看待和使用以GDP表示的经济增长率,各级地方政府和部门可以不再计算GDP总量及其增长率,至少应该逐步淡化,盲目追求速度势必会造成宏微观出现反差的不正常现象。     

汽车产业对经济发展的带动作用

汽车产业对整个经济发展的带动效应强,基本原因在于其中间投入比重很大,同时产业链条延伸很宽很长。汽车产业对工业和服务业,以及就业都有很大的带动作用。而且间接带动作用远大于直接带动作用。在21世纪初期,中国汽车产业的发展有利于减轻消费需求对经济稳定增长的制约,有利于加强投资需求对经济增长的拉动作用,也有利于产业结构的调整升级。     

郑州市分形结构的动力相似分析—关于城市人口、土地和产值分维关系的实证研究

借助城市动力系统的异速生长模型和Cobb-Douglas函数,分析了郑州市人口,土地和产出三者之间非线性关系的分形几何图式,在理论上为城市结构的动力相似分析提供了一个简明的范例,在实践上可为郑州市的发展规划及其空间结构的分形优化提供若干理论指导。     

我国进出口与经济增长的实证分析--从增长率看外贸对经济增长的促进作用

改革开放以来,我国的经济以年均9.6%的速度增长,与此同时对外贸易以年均约16%的速度逐年提高,那么,人们不禁要问：高速增长的对外贸易,究竟对我国国民经济的高速增长有没有积极的促进作用呢？如果有那么多对外贸易的增长对国民经济的增长的作用和途径、贡献份额又如何呢？本文从对外贸易与GDP增长率的相关性入手,通过对我国1980-1998年的有关数据进行计量分析,揭示了我国进口对国民经济增长具有较强的促进作用,同时从出口商品结构的角度说明了为什么出口与我国经济增长存在弱相关性。     

Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap

Industrialization allowed the industrialized world of today to escape from the Malthusian regime characterized by low economic and population growth and to enter the post-Malthusian regime of high economic and population growth. To explain the transition between these regimes, we construct a growth model with two consumption goods (an agricultural and a manufacturing good), endogenous fertility, and endogenous technological progress in the manufacturing sector. We show that with an exogenous increase in the growth of agricultural productivity our model is able to replicate stylized facts of the British industrial revolution. The paper concludes by illustrating that our proposed model framework can be extended to include the demographic transition, i.e., a regime in which economic growth is associated with falling fertility.     

消费政策与我国的经济增长

现阶段我国经济发展中的主要问题是消费需求不足．走出消费需求不足的关键是消费政策调整,通过鼓励消费、引导消费、不断扩大居民的消费支出来启动消费需求,推动经济增长．     

Agriculture in transition economies: from common heritage to divergence

The 23 former socialist countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) started the transition in 1989–1990 from a common institutional and organizational heritage, represented by the Soviet agricultural model. Despite the common heritage in agriculture, the reform policies in CEE and CIS diverged from the start, as significant differences emerged between the two groups of countries in legal attitudes to private land ownership, transferability of land, the extent of agricultural privatization and individualization, and restructuring of farms. This divergence in the implementation of agricultural reform has led to divergence in standard development measures: the CEE countries are outperforming the CIS countries by growth in GDP and agricultural product since 1992; the productivity of agricultural labor in CEE is generally increasing, and in CIS it is decreasing. While the CIS countries at best can be characterized as reluctant reformers, the CEE countries have achieved significantly higher levels of economic and institutional reform. Better performance in CEE is associated with greater readiness of the governments in these countries to implement a comprehensive package of economic and social reform policies, including more radical land reform and deeper individualization and restructuring of agriculture.     

Global indeterminacy in an endogenous-growth model with public capital

This paper studies the patterns of growth in an endogenous-growth model where the labor supply is endogenous and sustained growth arises because the services derived from public capital increase the economic productivity. It is assumed that these services are congested by the number of households in the economy but they are not congested by the units of time that each household devotes to work. With this assumption, the dynamic equilibrium exhibits multiple balanced-growth paths, local and global indeterminacy, and limit cycles under some plausible fiscal policies. Our analysis points out that a large lump-sum tax is a necessary condition to obtain this complex equilibrium dynamic behavior.