Eco-labels and product longevity: The case of whitefish in UK grocery retailing

In recent years, eco-labeling has become an increasingly used tool to signal sustainable sourcing of (sea-) food. While the literature has focused on price premiums associated with the labels, it is noted in this paper that eco-labels can also contribute to profitability by reducing cost, e.g. through longer product lifespans. Hence, eco-labels can be beneficial in a supply chain even without a price premium. This study applies duration analysis to explore whether two eco-labels (the MSC label of the Marine Stewardship Council and a line-caught label) influence product longevity of whitefish products in eight different grocery retailers in the UK. The results show that MSC labeled products have a 64.7% lower risk of being withdrawn from the shelves compared to non-MSC products, while products with the line-caught label have a 32.8% lower risk of being withdrawn than products without this label. The results also indicate that the influence of the eco-labels on product longevity vary considerably between the retailers.     

Duration of price promotion and product profit: An in-depth study based on point-of-sale data

Anecdotal evidence has shown that retail price promotions can help small and medium-sized retailers enhance their sales, and thus profits. However, most marketing managers usually stop a promotion after a certain duration. This study aims to explain why these retailers discontinue their price promotion. Our approach posits that overall contributions of a price promotion to the product profit progressively diminish with time. In this study, we present a theoretical framework to explain the relationship between duration and profit effects of price promotion and propose statistical models to empirically examine this framework using point-of-sale (POS) data. Our findings provide empirical support that the effect of price promotion on the product profit has a downward trend with elapsed time. The results are helpful for marketers to understand how price promotions dynamically influence product profit and when the promotion should be terminated.     

Bailout uncertainty in a microfounded general equilibrium model of the financial system

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest rates, the volume of defaults and the real economy. The distinction between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the multiple priors framework to beliefs about the probability of bailout.Results of the analysis include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real and financial sectors and may lead to a total drying up of credit markets. (ii) Lower exante bailout uncertainty is conducive to higher leverage, which in turn raises moral hazard and makes the economy more vulnerable to expost increases in bailout uncertainty. (iii) Bailout uncertainty affects the likelihood of bubbles, the amplitude of booms and busts as well as the banking and the credit spreads. (iv) Higher bailout uncertainty is associated with higher returns’ variability in diversified portfolios and higher systemic risks, (v) Pre-crisis expansionary monetary policy reinforces those effects by inducing higher aggregate leverage levels. (vi) The larger the change in bailout uncertainty and the change in aversion to this uncertainty, the stronger the pre-crisis buildup and the deeper the ensuing crisis.A central policy implication of the analysis is that the vaguest is bailout policy prior to a crisis, the lower is the magnitude of investments destroyed or missed due to errors in evaluating bailout and other intervention policies. On the other hand, the clearer is bailout policy upon the eruption of a crisis, the smaller the contraction of credit and the destruction of investment activity.     

On the timing of political regime changes in resource-dependent economies

We consider a resource-dependent economy initially ruled by the elite. The transition from the autocratic to a more democratic regime takes place only if the citizens decide to revolt against the elite. The occurrence of a revolution primarily depends on the autocratic regime vulnerability and the level of inequalities, both being driven by the elite׳s redistribution and repression policies. First, we show that when a political transition is inevitable, the elite choose the maximum rate of redistribution to lengthen their period in office. Second, we find that the duration of the autocratic regime is linked to resource abundance, and how it relates to the elite׳s policies. More resources lead to a shorter reign of a redistributive regime, which may not be the case of a repressive regime. Finally, we interpret the Arab spring sequence in light of our findings.     

版权保护期限优化设计实证研究——基于56个国家和地区的数据分析

版权保护具有时间限制,这是世界各国的立法通例,也是版权法平衡作者个人利益和社会公共利益的一种必要手段。本文对56个国家和地区的版权保护期限与版权贸易的关系进行了实证分析,结果显示,版权保护期限随着版权贸易的增加起初提高然后降低,两者呈倒U型关系,此拐点的人均创意及其相关产业物品进出口贸易额为4233．074美元,版权保护期限为72．386年。     

基于Crystal Ball的PERT网络计划项目工期风险分析

文章介绍了网络计划技术,对PERT网络计划项目各活动持续时间的确定进行了分析,总结了使用Crystal Ball进行风险分析的步骤,构建了某PERT网络计划项目各活动的时间参数的Excel模型。在此基础上,使用Crystal Ball建立该项目的工期风险分析模型,并对该模型进行风险分析,获得有效的分析结果。     

寿险合同持续期的实证研究:一个契约的视角

本文将寿险合同持续期,作为研究的对象。以契约经济学的方法,分析保险合同,将影响持续期的因素分为:投保人特点、保险人行为以及契约外部环境。运用来自山东某人寿保险公司的保单数据,研究了各类因素对持续期的影响。极大似然估计的结果显示,三类因素对寿险合同持续期都有显著影响。其中,服务质量、职业风险以及定期存款利率对契约持续的影响最大。另外,收入、年龄、同业竞争,也对持续期有显著影响。     

Product Patent Reform and its Impact on Korea's Pharmaceutical Industry

Our analysis focuses on the effect of U.S. government pressure on Korea to adopt product patents for chemical and pharmaceutical products. American pressure began in November 1985 and ended with the Korean Legislature's passage of a new patent law in December 1986. We conduct an event study of the effect of the new patent law on the value of Korean pharmaceutical firms listed on the Korea Stock Exchange. Regression analysis shows that the new law induced excess returns of-74 percent over the 14-month analysis period. The results suggest that adoption of stronger patent laws reduced Korea's wealth. [G14, O34]     

A generalized algorithm for duration and convexity of option embedded bonds

This article derives a generalized algorithm for duration and convexity of option embedded bonds that provides a convenient way of estimating the dollar value of 1 basis point change in yield known as DV01, an important metric in the bond market. As delta approaches 1, duration of callable bonds approaches zero once the bond is called. However, when the delta is zero, the short call is worthless and duration of callable will be equal to that of a straight bond. On the other hand, the convexity of a callable bond follows the same behaviour when the delta is 1 as shown in Dunetz and Mahoney (1988) as well as in Mehran and Homaifar’s (1993) derivations. However, in the case when delta is zero, the convexity of a callable bond approaches zero as well, which is in stark contrast to the non-zero convexity derived in Dunetz and Mahoney’s paper. Our generalized algorithm shows that duration and convexity nearly symmetrically underestimate (overestimate) the actual price change by 11/10 basis points for ± 100 basis points change in yield. Furthermore, our algorithm reduces to that of MH for convertible bonds assuming the convertible bond is not callable.     

出口机会与进口竞争对工业机器人企业的叠加影响：基于出口持续时间的视角

工业机器人企业是中国推动制造业数字化革命、抢占国际分工制高点战略的主力军,然而其出口持续时间平均不足1年,需引起高度关注。本文基于2000-2015年中国海关数据库和工业企业数据库的匹配数据,运用Cox风险模型分析了出口机会增大和进口竞争加剧对工业机器人企业出口持续时间的影响和作用机制。结果表明,出口机会增大更有利于延长企业出口持续时间,进口竞争加剧则提高了企业的退出率,这一结论在产品多样化程度低、产品核心度低、行业竞争小和市场集中度低的企业中尤为明显;出口机会与进口竞争,主要是通过企业生产率和技术创新的中介作用影响企业的出口持续时间;面对双重叠加影响,工业机器人企业应充分利用产品间的技术关联效应提高出口持续性。