期望落差与互联网新创企业狙击型国际化——基于资源条件与市场环境二元情境视角

互联网新创企业国际化战略目标及实施路径独具特色，逐渐成为研究热点。以北京小桔科技有限公司为案例对象，基于业绩反馈理论和前景理论，构建“期望落差-二元情境-狙击型国际化”的研究框架，系统揭示互联网新创企业狙击型国际化行为及实现机制。研究发现：期望落差促使互联网新创企业实施狙击型国际化战略，资源条件与市场环境二元情境在其中具有调节作用，即在资源劣势-市场壁垒高情境下采取“组合拳”模式的狙击型国际化，在资源劣势-市场壁垒低情境下采取界内合作模式的狙击型国际化，在资源优势-市场壁垒高情境下采取跨界协作模式的狙击型国际化，在资源优势-市场壁垒低情境下采取市场控制模式的狙击型国际化。     

Testing loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in review sentiment

This article analyzes the relationship between ratings and review sentiment by introducing, for the first time, the tenets of prospect theory. Specifically, we test loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity on a sample of 132,486 reviews and find that: first, negative deviations in ratings (receiving a service with worse performance than expected) bring about a higher impact on review sentiment than positive deviations of equal magnitude (receiving a service with better performance than expected), thus, confirming loss aversion; and second, regardless of whether the service received is better or worse than expected, variations in ratings closer to the reference point result in higher marginal impacts on sentiment than equivalent variations further away from the reference point, thus, proving diminishing sensitivity. These results have relevant theoretical implications related to the use of relative vs absolute measures and the cognitive bias involved, and managerial implications linked to meeting expectations and service recovery.     

Free-play impact by customer segment

Little is known about the effectiveness of casino free-play campaigns, despite hundreds of millions of dollars in annual redemptions. These costly play incentives are awarded to individual players, based largely on management’s evaluation of their historical play. Extant campaign-level research suggests these incentives may not be effective in driving spend per visit, but there has been no attempt to examine efficacy across player tiers (e.g., light, medium, and heavy users). Analysis of 365 days of performance data from a Las Vegas Strip casino produced varied results across tiers, but all tier-level findings indicated a failure to recover the face value of the free-play incentives. While no support was garnered for the house money effect, the results were consistent with the notion of loss aversion. The methodological approach outlined herein provides the means to critically evaluate free-play offers at the tier level, fast-tracking campaign optimization via more targeted revisions.     

引进外资的得与失问题研究

在具体分析引进外资的积极作用和存在问题、弊病的基础上,对如何提高引进外资的质量和效益、实现共赢;防止跨国公司垄断和控制我国经济命脉、防止＂洋腐败＂泛滥、防止跨国公司违规污染环境;我国金融机构和企业要吸取广国投破产倒闭的教训,必须要十分审慎有效地利用外资、严控我国优质企业到境外上市等问题提出了十一条看法与建议。     

A preference foundation for constant loss aversion

Following prospect theory and in particular the concept of loss aversion, introduced by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), we consider decision making under risk in which the decision maker’s preferences depend on a reference outcome. An outcome below this reference outcome is regarded as resulting from a loss: a loss decreases the decision maker’s basic utility more than a comparable gain increases this utility. An elegant and simple way to model this phenomenon was proposed by Shalev (2002): the utility of an outcome below the reference outcome is obtained from the basic utility by subtracting a multiple of the loss in basic utility: this multiple, the loss aversion coefficient, is constant across different reference outcomes. We provide a preference foundation for this loss aversion model.     

New standard regulations regarding allocation to the safety reserve in Sweden

Abstract

This paper describes a statistical investigation of observed loss ratios and run-offs for a number of Swedish insurance companies within different lines of business. The main aim of the investigation was to revise existing upper limits for allocation to the so-called safety reserve, which is an untaxed contingency reserve. The effort was successful in that new rules were established by the Swedish Supervisory Authority in accordance with the results of the investigation. This paper also contains an exposition of the general principles underlying the Swedish safety reserve.     

Impact of metal silos on households’ maize storage,storage losses and food security: An application of a propensity score matching

Maize is the most important food staple in Eastern and Southern Africa, with a highly seasonal production but relatively constant consumption over the year. Farmers have to store maize to bridge seasons, for food security and to protect against price fluctuations. However, the traditional storage methods do not protect grain well, resulting in large postharvest losses. Hermetically sealed metal silos kill storage pests by oxygen deprivation without pesticides. Popular in Central America, they are now being promoted in Africa, but their impact here has not yet been studied. This study used propensity score matching to evaluate the impact of metal silos on duration of maize storage, loss abatement, cost of storage, and household food security. Metal silo adopters (N = 116) were matched with non-adopting farmers from a representative sample of 1340 households covering the major maize-growing zones in Kenya. The major effect of the metal silos was an almost complete elimination of losses due to insect pests, saving farmers an average of 150–200 kg of grain, worth KSh9750 (US$130). Metal silo adopters also spent about KSh340 less on storage insecticides. Adopters were able to store their maize for 1.8–2.4 months longer, and to sell their surplus after five months at good prices, instead of having to sell right after the harvest. The period of inadequate food provision among adopters was reduced by more than one month. We conclude that metal silos are effective in reducing grain losses due to maize-storage insects, and that they have a large impact on the welfare and food security of farm households. The initial cost of metal silos is high (KSh20,000/1.8 ton) and therefore policies to increase access to credit, to reduce the cost of sheet metal, and to promote collective action can improve their uptake by smallholder farmers.     

A note on forecasting the prices of gold and silver: Asymmetric loss and forecast rationality

Given that the prices of gold and silver have witnessed large and substantial swings in recent years, policymakers and investors need readily available and reliable forecasts of the prices of these two precious metals. Survey data of forecasts of the prices of gold and silver provide a particularly rich data environment for policymakers and investors to study developments in the markets for gold and silver. Our research helps to develop a deeper understanding of the properties of survey data of the prices of gold and silver. We study the shape of forecasters’ loss function and the rationality of their forecasts. Assuming an asymmetric loss function weakens evidence against forecast rationality, but results depend on the empirical model being studied.     

贵州零售业基层员工流失及其对策研究

通过设计调查问卷、实地访谈等方法收集了贵州零售业员工工作生活现状,并从降低员工流失率的重要性,剖析员工流失的原因进行深入分析,有针对性的提出降低贵州零售业员工流失的对策。     

雇员流失成本分析

在当今市场经济为主导的社会中,人员的流动是相当活跃的。这种流动既有人员的流进也有人员的流出。而人员的流出,它对组织的影响是难于预料的。从组织的角度来看,就意味着在雇员身上所进行的人力资本投资和这种投资所带来的预期收益的丧失。