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Experts have more difficulty identifying reverse salients in R&D because of increasing technological complexity and a shortened technology lifecycle. As an alternative, we suggest a new and systematic method of identifying and forecasting reverse salients using QFD (quality function deployment), bibliometric analysis, and TIA (trend impact analysis). QFD allows users to systematically identify and prioritize reverse salients. An integration of QFD, bibliometric analysis, and TIA makes it possible to specify key performance indicators of reverse salient in order to identify the performance gap between current and market-required performance and to make a probabilistic forecast about when reverse salients will be corrected. Our method will help managers identify a top priority reverse salient, forecast its future, and thus make better R&D decisions with regard to market requirements. A carbon nanotube biosensor technology is used as an example. 相似文献
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Lu Huang Ying Guo Zhengchun Peng Alan L. Porter 《Technology Analysis & Strategic Management》2013,25(5):527-544
We devise future-oriented technology analyses tools to investigate a technology at an interesting development stage of early emerging applications. At this stage, technologies show great potential with little established commercialisation. Future development pathways are highly uncertain and heavily dependent on contextual interactions. We apply R&D profiling, R&D-to-applications cross-charting, and technology delivery system modelling to help understand the phenomena that bear upon development prospects. We develop our approach through a two-tier case study: general treatment of nanomaterial-enhanced biosensors, followed by more specialised treatment of one subset of those. Results convey the importance of considering technological and social context factors together to understand likely innovation pathways. 相似文献
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郑佳 《全球科技经济瞭望》2013,(9):34-40
10余年来,美国政府十分重视对纳米传感器技术的研发支持,与之相关的发展计划分布于美国《国家纳米技术计划》的各个层面,众多国家机构结合各自研究领域积极开展纳米传感器技术的研究与开发,其研究遍及国防军事、航空航天、生物医药以及电子通讯等领域,尤以涉及国家安全和人类生命健康的领域为重点。通过分析美国相关机构各年度纳米传感器技术发展计划,不难了解:近期,美国政府提出要加强机构间的合作与交流,既要加快下一代纳米传感器技术的研究与开发,同时也为开展纳米传感器技术在健康、安全与环境方面的研究提供支撑。 相似文献
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