延迟退休年龄下隔代抚育与劳动参与的抉择*——基于工资收入随机性假定的研究

隔代抚育会对延迟退休年龄政策在促进劳动力供给上产生挤出效应。为了对此进行验证，本文在工资收入随机性的假定及延迟退休5年的情景下，模拟了面临孙辈照护需求的女性临近退休者提前退休所产生的福利变化。进一步，本文采用CHIP和CHARLS的微观调查数据，对不同群组的收入增长率和收入风险进行了估计，继而分析了当面临孙辈照护需求时这些收入特征对退休决策者制度退休和退休后劳动参与抉择产生的影响。总体上，在延迟退休年龄政策下，隔代抚育将对女性劳动力供给产生挤出效应。当面临孙辈照护需求时，女性临近退休者的制度退休抉择主要受自身收入增长率和收入风险的影响，收入增长率越低，或收入风险越高，她们提前退休的意愿就越强烈；制度退休后的劳动参与则更多地受子女收入增长率的影响，子女收入增长率越高，劳动参与的概率越低。     

Time heals many wounds – explaining the immediate and delayed effects of message sidedness

This study investigates the immediate and delayed effects of advertising messages including both positive and negative information. A two-sided message has a negative effect on message attitudes due to two mediating variables with trade-off effects: valence and balance. These two variables are also responsible for the alignment of the effect of sidedness on message attitudes and purchase intentions over time: the negative effects of two-sided messages are neutralized over time because negative information is reevaluated, improving the valence of the message. The results explain the negative effects of message sidedness that have been found in prior research and they show that a two-sided message in advertising is not necessarily inferior to a one-sided message despite unfavorable short-term effects.     

改进的动态反馈负载均衡算法

本文提出了一种改进的动态反馈负载均衡算法,在负载均衡过程中既考虑后台服务器的当前负载,又考虑后台服务器的处理能力,根据每台服务器当前负载比例值的大小合理分配用户请求,进而调整服务器间处理请求的比例,避免服务器超载时依然收到大量的请求,使平均应答时延和吞吐量等获得较好的性能,集群的整体性能得到提高。     

An analysis of delayed formal and interlinked informal credit in agriculture

A model of interlinked credit-product contracts between small farmers and large farmers when the small farmer faces delay in getting formal credit and the large farmer does not, has been developed. The small farmer remains on the reservation income level, and his reservation income is inversely related to the length of the delay. However, this does not hamper the productivity of the small farmer. The large farmer extracts the surplus through the interlinked contract and this surplus is positively related to the length of the delay. Interlinkage and non-inter-linkage equilibria become identical if the small farmer gets the formal credit at the beginning of the crop cycle. Various subsidy policies worsen the distribution of formal credit.     

实施低成本扩张战略的案例分析

低成本扩张战略是企业快速发展壮大的一种重要途径。近年来,随着国内经济的快速发展,能源和资源供求矛盾不断突出,各地政府承担的节能减排压力日益增加,迫切要求在保护环境的前提下,扩大能源和资源的供给量,缓解供需矛盾。通过运用五种力量模型、SWOT模型、现金流量分析等方法,对热锗联产和延迟焦化两个项目进行全方位分析和综合评估,可以看出,延迟焦化项目内外部环境比较有利于项目的实施,其优势明显大于劣势,机遇大于威胁,项目实施可行性较强。     

充填采矿法回收残矿技术的应用

南洺河铁矿有限公司利用胶结充填采矿法,充填残采空区18万m3,回收残采矿量39.2万吨,充分的回收率矿产资源,对矿山的安全生产也起到了促进作用,收到了良好的效果。     

延迟退休对个人养老金财富的影响研究

基于终身现值精算模型,通过分析延迟退休对个人养老金财富的影响,以期为延迟退休和相关配套性政策的制定提供数值依据.研究发现:延迟退休会使得个人养老金净收益呈现下降趋势,甚至低于当前水平.2050年前,相比不延迟退休情景,即时退休和逐步退休分别会使个人养老金净收益平均降低39.07万元和30.86万元.为减少延迟退休对个人养老金财富的负面影响,国家在推行延迟退休方案的同时需要出台配套性政策,把延迟退休对社会福利的增加值用来弥补对个人养老金财富造成的损失.     

American-style Indexed Executive Stock Options

This paper develops a new pricing model for American-style indexed executive stock options. We rely on a basic model framework and an indexation scheme first proposed by Johnson and Tian (2000a) in their analysis of European-style indexed options. Our derivation of the valuation formula represents an instructive example of the usefulness of the change-of-numeraire technique. In the paper's numerical section we implement the valuation formula and demonstrate that not only may the early exercise premium be significant but also that the delta of the American-style option is typically much larger than the delta of the otherwise identical (value-matched) European-style option. Vega is higher for indexed options than for conventional options but largely independent of whether the options are European- or American-style. This has important implications for the design of executive compensation contracts. We finally extend the analysis to cover the case where the option contracts are subject to delayed vesting. We show that for realistic parameter values, delayed vesting leads only to a moderate reduction in the value of the American-style indexed executive stock option.     

Consumer anticipation: antecedents,processes and outcomes

ABSTRACT

Marketing managers use anticipation as a marketing tool, particularly for new or improved products, services or experiences. Academic interest in consumer anticipation has focused on its outcomes, especially effects on the forthcoming substantive consumption. However, inadequate attention has been given to consumer anticipation as a complex process per se. A systematic review of the literature arrives at a conceptual definition which sees consumer anticipation as a mental process by which consumers consider the physical, experiential, social, emotional or behavioural consumption outcomes that are expected to accrue to the self from a yet to be realised consumption decision or experience. Antecedents of consumer anticipation, its underlying mental processes and consequences are identified and discussed. Frameworks for operationalising consumer anticipation in practical contexts are discussed.     

A generalized penalty function for a class of discrete renewal processes

Analysis of a generalized Gerber–Shiu function is considered in a discrete-time (ordinary) Sparre Andersen renewal risk process with time-dependent claim sizes. The results are then applied to obtain ruin-related quantities under some renewal risk processes assuming specific interclaim distributions such as a discrete K _n distribution and a truncated geometric distribution (i.e. compound binomial process). Furthermore, the discrete delayed renewal risk process is considered and results related to the ordinary process are derived as well.