实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

Pursuing your leader development: Lessons from 101 executives

To lead effectively in a VUCA (i.e., volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) environment, leaders must quickly and continuously acquire new skills. However, formal development opportunities aren’t nearly enough to support the ongoing skill development leaders need to manage the level of complexity and change they are facing. Instead, leaders must take ownership of their own development. In this paper, we describe a straightforward, four-step process that leaders can implement to pursue their individualized development through leader development planning. Specifically, we walk leaders through the evidence-based steps of creating their unique leader development plan (LDP), including (1) identifying their leadership strengths and weaknesses, (2) setting effective leader development goals, (3) designing SMART strategies, and (4) reflecting, refining, and realigning their plan. Throughout the article, we detail positive examples as well as common pitfalls that we observed from our work supporting 101 mid- to senior-level leaders in designing their LDPs. Our purpose in doing so is to provide tools and examples to enable leaders at all levels to drive their development at their own pace.     

Golf Versus Nongolf Club Operations: Benchmarks for 2014

With the club industry comprising of different types of clubs, a more in-depth analysis separating clubs with and without golf operations would be beneficial. Financial performance can be summarized via financial ratios. This study surveyed 115 clubs regarding their financial performance and calculated 24 financial ratios for 2014. The median profit margin of all clubs was at 1.65%. Clubs with golf operations reported a median profit margin at 1.73%, doubling that of the nongolf operations at 0.83%. T-tests using means of financial ratios showed a statistically significantly difference in only the food inventory turnover by days.     

Leader‐Member Exchange Relationships and Follower Outcomes: The Mediating Role of Perceiving Goals as Invariable

In the present study, we investigated whether perceiving goals as invariable mediated the link between leader‐member exchange (LMX) relationships and role overload, turnover intention, and work performance. Perceiving goals as invariable refers to the extent to which followers believe that the goals in a performance management system represent the absolute standards that they must meet without exception, even if they think other factors are more important (e.g., situational factors or factors that are not associated with goals). In Study 1, perceiving goals as invariable mediated the relationships between LMX and role overload and turnover intention, such that a high‐quality LMX relationship was negatively associated with perceiving goals as invariable, which in turn was positively related to both role overload and turnover intention. In Study 2, social LMX was negatively associated and economic LMX was positively associated with perceiving goals as invariable, which in turn was negatively related to work performance. Furthermore, perceiving goals as invariable mediated the relationship between social LMX relationships and work performance. Theoretical and practical implications and directions for future research are discussed. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Then and Now: Examining Older People's Engagement in Outdoor Recreation Across the Life Course

Outdoor recreation provides a range of health and wellbeing benefits and facilitates engagement with natural environments. We explore older people's participation in outdoor recreation throughout their lives to examine how past experiences shape engagement later in life. A qualitative life history approach, consisting of semi-structured interviews and a focus group in three place-specific (urban, rural, and small town coastal) case studies in Scotland, was adopted. Thematic analysis revealed ways in which childhood experiences shaped adult engagement and highlighted life course transitions where behaviour change was most pronounced. Place and gender were considered as factors which may affect responses. Participants identified the points of getting married, becoming a parent, children entering adolescence, retirement, the onset of disabilities or ill health, and the death of others as “moments of change” in the extent and/or form of their outdoor recreation. The findings highlight potential for targeted interventions to promote outdoor recreation throughout life.     

高职院校思想政治理论课与职业素养教育融合研究

高校思想政治理论课是大学生思想政治教育的主渠道。职业素养教育是高职院校人才培养体系中的特色环节,也是高职院校进行大学生素质教育的重要阵地。高职院校思想政治理论课与职业素养教育实现有机融合,可以有效调动各种资源形成教育合力,有利于高职院校构建大思政工作格局。高职院校可以从做好顶层设计、整合人才队伍、融入教育载体、互鉴教育方式、规范考核评价五个方面加强思想政治理论课与职业素养教育的有机融合,形成协同育人效果。     

The importance of career goal in relation to academic performance: a case study of hospitality management students

ABSTRACT

Hospitality management programs have commonly offered exclusive learning opportunities to talented students in order to keep “brains” in the industry. While academic performance indices are often used to identify “brains” in the education sector, scant research has empirically examined whether “brains” are intended to stay in the industry. This study surveyed 304 hospitality management students and examined the relationships between their career-goal related factors and academic performance. Findings indicate that career goal and positive job valence toward the hospitality industry are significantly related to academic performance. The results of this study contribute to the limited literature on the relationship between career goal and academic performance.     

Applying the counseling-learning approach to a tourism-related massive open online course

ABSTRACT

This study discusses how to apply counseling-learning (CL) principles to a particular e-learning solution for teaching a tourism-related subject via a massive open online course (MOOC). Several effective caring patterns in achieving learning-related goals and being part of a community according to the CL principles are presented and discussed using the MOOC “eTourism: Communication Perspectives” as a case study. The study underlines how the MOOC platform can act as a place for contents enjoinment and active learning. Moreover, the active role of social media for increasing the engagement of learners in the proposed activities and for developing a sense of the community is identified. In particular, Facebook and Twitter can act as places for community building and informal social interactions among learners that last beyond the completion of the course, which in turn can be a valid aid for continuing the relationships among instructors/learners and learners/learners, and for reaching new ones.     

历史记载以来黄河下游河道变化及沉积环境分析

论文对近历史记载以来黄河下游河段河道变迁历史进行总结概括并重新绘制了黄河下游河道变迁示意图。黄河下游河段按流向分为北、东、南三个方向。北流河道相对分散,形成了一系列三角洲沉积,有的已被沿岸河流带来的沉积物覆盖;东流河道在入海口处河道变迁频繁,形成了规模较大的三角洲并持续至今。南流河道在摆动起始有多股漫流,经由淮河水系扩散,至苏北一带汇成一股由苏北汇入黄海并在苏北形成了规模较大的三角洲。结合相关研究成果,分析黄河河口沉积环境发现:黄河入海泥沙堆积有极高的沉积速率,在沉积年份每年可沉积数十厘米至数米,可以快速向海淤进形成三角洲,而黄河行水期结束后,则无沉积甚至被侵蚀。研究结果表明,北至海河、南到淮河的大范围内沉积环境的塑造均与黄河有关,黄河与下游的滦河、小清河、弥河、潍河、淮河、射阳河等相互影响,共同塑造了华北平原的沉积格局。     

川渝黔一体化发展的战略目标和基本内容

作为长江上游的核心区域，川渝黔一体化发展的本质就是长江上游区域的一体化发展。战略目标有两个方面：在成渝城市群基础上形成世界级城市群、形成世界级主导产业和企业集团。其战略意义有五个方面：极大缓解我国不平衡不充分发展与人民追求美好生活愿望之间的矛盾、率先促进长江上游区域一体化发展、有助于加快实现“一带一路”和长江经济带等发展目标、有利于保护水资源和建成上游生态屏障、使我国有一个长远和稳固的战略后方基地。一体化发展的基本内容包含五个方面：交通通信设施一体化、产业发展一体化、监管和生产要素一体化、生态环境一体化、人口流动时身份规定一体化。