新基建发展对产业升级的影响机制研究

新基建作为现代化基础设施体系的重要组成部分，已经成为中国经济高质量发展的重要支撑。基于2015—2021年中国71个城市的面板数据，构建双向固定效应、中介效应和调节效应三种回归模型，实证检验新基建发展对城市产业结构水平的影响及内在机制。研究发现：新基建发展能促进产业高级化水平，改善不合理的产业结构状态，提升产业合理化水平；新基建通过发展物联网和激励城市研发创新两种间接路径对产业结构转型升级产生积极影响；新基建对产业结构水平的影响受到地方政府干预行为的调节作用，在地方政府合理的行政管理下，新基建对产业转型升级的积极作用更为明显；新基建发展对产业结构水平的提升作用具有区域异质性和城市规模异质性，在中西部地区和大城市地区的作用效果更为明显。     

基于遥感蒸散数据的农田灌溉水平评价和设施建设分区研究

[目的]利用遥感蒸散数据快速评价农田年度灌溉水平,及时获取基本农田建设成效,为农田灌溉设施分区建设提供参考。[方法]以黑龙江省海伦市为研究区,MOD16蒸散产品为数据源,计算有效灌溉量、灌溉需水量和作物缺水指数,分别对研究区2013年的旱地和水田灌溉水平进行评价,并将评价结果与农田水利设施作用分值图进行叠加分析,在此基础上进行基本农田灌溉设施建设分区。[结果]2013年海伦市耕地灌溉水平整体较高,区域间建设水平差别较大,可划分为4个级别。其中1级和2级灌溉水平的地块面积比例可达78.06%,地域分布上看,北部、西部、中部乡镇灌溉水平较高,东南部乡镇灌溉水平相对较低。叠加得出8种组合类型,分为设施修建型、设施提升型和设施维护型3种分区类型。[结论]研究为高标准农田建设提供了更详细的农田灌溉水平评价方法和更具差别化的农田灌溉设施建设策略。     

Will FinTech make regional banks superfluous for small firm finance? Observations from soft information-based lending in Germany

Regional banks have a competitive advantage in that short distances to clients enable the use of soft information for superior lending decisions. If the ambition of FinTech start-ups to create superior screening and monitoring technologies materialises, this advantage would be diminished and regional banks would become superfluous for small firm finance. To explore this claim, the paper in hand analyses qualitative empirical data about the lending processes and rating system use of regional German savings banks. In essence, the results from participant observation and interviews clarify the importance of “real” soft information for critical lending decisions. The context specificity and limited verifiability of “real” soft information hamper it from being hardened through the use of rating systems and other bank-ICT. Though FinTech's scoring technologies may overcome the first limitation, it appears likely that in the course of scoring development “real” soft information will be systematically crowded out due to the manipulation problem. The paper expects improved access to finance for SMEs if FinTech solutions overcome both limitations of “real” soft information use, or if peer-to-peer lending and regional banks coexist. Deteriorated access to finance is expected if FinTech companies displace the relationship banking of regional banks due to enhanced competition, without preserving the advantages of “real” soft information with superior screening and monitoring technologies. The paper concludes with recommendations on how to prevent deteriorated access to finance for small firms by promoting fair competition and FinTech innovations.     

Analysis of the effect of charging infrastructure design on electric taxi driving profiles: A case study approach on the example of Singapore

Replacing conventional vehicle taxis with electric vehicles would be an efficient measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the limited range and long charging times of current battery electric vehicles, it is of utmost importance to provide sufficient charging facilities. This article analyses the impact of the placement and charging power of charging stations on potential mileage and revenue of electric taxis on the example of Singapore. Therefore, we developed an agent-based electric taxi simulation model to investigate electric taxis’ driving profiles with respect to different vehicle types and charging infrastructure designs. This model is also capable of simulating conventional taxi driving profiles. The validation of these simulation results with real taxi data showed that the model is reproducing taxi driving profiles with high accuracy in great detail. We found out that electric taxis could reach the same mileage and revenue as conventional taxis if charging with a power of 160?kW is possible. Furthermore, we discovered that waiting times for available charging stations have a stronger effect on revenue than the length of detours to reach charging stations. Based on these findings, we concluded that it is more important to reduce waiting times by placing sufficient numbers of charging stations at each location before expanding the charging network by installing small numbers of charging stations at many locations.     

China's one belt one road initiative: The impact of trade facilitation versus physical infrastructure on exports

The One Belt One Road (OBOR) project is perhaps China's most significant international relations initiative in recent times. It is based on openness, harmony, inclusivity, mutual benefit and market operations and aims to connect the economically vibrant East Asia and the developed Europe by land and by sea, and in the process, it brings growth and development to tens of countries along the modern Silk routes. In this paper, we compare the impact of the main initiatives of OBOR, namely enhancements in physical infrastructure and improvements in border administration, on the trade of countries that have signed on to this project, especially countries along the six economic corridors. We find overwhelming evidence that shows improvements in border administration has the greatest impact on exports of corridor countries. Although physical infrastructure is important for trade, the Chinese government should place equal attention to improvements in trade facilitation to ensure trade routes operate seamlessly across the various corridors.     

高端乡村旅游产业与生态环保基础设施协同发展研究——以天津蓟州区为例

在经济新常态下积极推动发展高端乡村旅游产业已经成为我国建设美丽乡村的重要着力点,与此同时"反生态"问题的不断显现已成为阻碍我国乡村旅游经济实现可持续发展的掣肘,因此,高端乡村旅游产业的发展模式向生态化转型势在必行。以天津市蓟州区乡村旅游景区的环保基础设施为研究对象,从环境情况、设施配备和从业人员3个方面确定了20个影响因素,通过向游客发放问卷进行满意度调查,从游客感知角度的基础上采用IPA模型分析游客对景区环保基础设施的重要性和满意度。结果表明,准则层及指标层感知均值都为游后感知实绩(满意度)<游前期望(重要性),在此基础上提出用冲突协同理论来指导蓟州区高端乡村旅游产业发展中的环境管理工作,实现高端乡村旅游产业与环保基础设施的协同发展,也能为今后的相关研究奠定基础。     

Permit markets,carbon prices and the creation of innovation clusters

Innovation clusters combining public and private effort to develop breakthrough technologies promise greater technological advances to slow down climate change. We use a multi-country model with an emission trading system to examine whether and how international climate policy can incentivize countries to create such innovation clusters. We find that a minimal carbon price is needed to attract applied research firms, but countries may nevertheless fail to invest in complementary research infrastructure. We construct a mechanism that leads to innovation clusters when emissions targets are set before uncertainty surrounding technological developments is resolved. It is a combination of low permit endowments for the country with the lowest costs to build the needed infrastructure, compensation for this country by profits from permit trade, and maximal possible permit endowments for the remaining countries. We outline how the EU-ETS can be further refined according to this mechanism.     

What determines international tourist arrivals in India?

Using data for 18 major tourist originating countries to India from 2001 to 2015, this study examines the major determinants of international tourist arrivals in India. The results indicate that past experiences of the tourists, per capita income in the tourist originating country, relative costs of living between India and the country of origin, and the level of infrastructure development in India are key determinants of international tourist arrivals in India. Furthermore, both transportation and communication infrastructure are important in attracting tourists to India. In particular, evidence suggests that availability of road and air network and telephone connections has favourable impacts on international tourist arrivals in India. These results are robust to the inclusion of additional variables. These results have important policy implications.     

剖线强度梯度变化的作物软硬变化区精确划分

[目的]软硬变化区的划分是进行遥感变化检测技术识别农作物的基础。为解决人工判读方法中存在人为主观因素影响以及自动判别和交互式判别方法对不同研究区的适用性问题,该文提出基于剖线梯度变化(Profile based Gradient Change Magnitude,PGCM)进行软硬变化区划分的方法。[方法]该研究选择破碎农业景观种植区域为研究区,计算拔节期Quick Bird影像和播种期模拟影像两个时相的变化强度,从作物地块内部向外绘制剖线,利用剖线强度的梯度变化确定硬变化区(Hard change region,HCR)、软变化区(Soft change region,SCR)和未变化区(Non change region,NCR)3者间的划分阈值。[结果]从识别结果来看,PGCM能够有效在地块边界处探测到软变化像元,进而确定HCR、SCR。像元分辨率在5~60 m不同尺度下,识别HCR区混入比例为11%~16%,混入比例随着分辨率下降而降低;NCR区混入比例为3%~4%,受分辨率尺度影响不大;SCR区识别比例为74%~86%,识别精度较高,识别结果与冬小麦空间分布结果保持一致。[结论]PGCM方法能够自动、便捷地确定阈值,摆脱人工判定的主观性,有效地划分出HCR、SCR和NCR 3个区域,为进一步HCR、SCR区内的作物识别提供基础。     

An evaluation framework for developing green infrastructure by using a new hybrid multiple attribute decision-making model for promoting environmental sustainability

With the expansion of urbanization caused by the growth of population and industrial activities, the urban/city and suburban areas are facing a variety of environmental threats. Although more research and urban policy has advocated and practiced the development of green infrastructure (GI) to support urban sustainable environment, the evaluation framework for the development of GI for promoting environmental sustainability is still insufficient. Moreover, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) commonly applied in published literature, makes an unrealistic assumption of independent relationships among dimensions/criteria in decision making for satisfying the real-world problem. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to construct the evaluation framework, including four dimensions and related ten criteria, using a new hybrid-modified multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) model for developing and improving the GI for promoting environmental sustainability. This MADM model is combined with three different methodologies of MADM, including the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) for constructing the influential network relation map (INRM) to explore the complex influential inter-relationships and DEMATEL based on Analytic Network Process (DANP) for determining the influential weights with the VIse Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) for evaluating and presenting improvement strategies for six different GIs. The empirical study indicates that DEMATEL and DANP Results suggest that decision-makers should pay more attention to the improvement of Design (D₄) and Materials (D₂) in terms of dimensions when utilizing the GI to promote environmental sustainability. Because these dimensions are enhanced, Species (D₁) and Energy (D₃) will be improved in synchronization. From the perspective of criteria, five are key core criteria and need to be focused on first: increasing the green coverage rate (B₉), utilizing sustainable materials (B₄), using ecological engineering (B₈), shaping species biodiversity (B₁), and reducing energy consumption (B₅). Modified VIKOR reveals that “grass swales” are a comparatively better choice among six GIs for promoting environmental sustainability toward achieving the aspiration level. Therefore, this MADM model is beneficial to provide a more convincing assessment framework and improvement strategies for the development of GI for promoting environmental sustainability. As a result, these modified MADM models can be shown more conveniently and reasonably than traditional methods such as traditional AHP or ANP method.