The Effect Of Advertising Content Control On Advertising Effectiveness In The Different Forced Exposure Circumstance

With advances in new technology, various formats of online advertising (e.g., in-stream video advertising) often force e-consumers to watch the advertisement during their goal-oriented activities, and this advertising interruption often makes them feel intruded upon and irritated. To reduce such negative reactions toward involuntary advertising exposures, this study examines whether offering e-consumers the option to choose advertising content can influence ad effectiveness in different degrees of forced exposure circumstance. Using a 2 (advertising content control: customization option vs. no option) × 2 (level of forced exposure: pre-rolls vs. rich media banners) factorial experiment, the researcher noted that advertising customization features generate a greater sense of relevance and increased advertising memory, which in turn may lead to more positive attitudes toward the ad regardless of the levels of forced exposure. The findings have theoretical and practical implications on the use of involuntary advertising interruptions in the web interface.     

Discovering India's three levels of luxury consumption: An exploratory research to find a conceptual framework

Luxury marketing research has moved from functional product attributes to a ‘democratized’ view in emerging economies. This seems to be based on the development of interactive and digital communications. Luxury research studies have historically focused on the brand's and marketer's perspectives. Thus, little attention has been given to the consumer's view of what we consider to be the individual drivers, i.e., the ‘inner and outer self’ and how that impacts luxury consumption. This paper presents a framework of luxury and self, using concepts such as interdependent or outer, independent or inner, and a new concept of ‘digital self’. These appear as three levels of luxury consumption, i.e., conspicuous, individual, and interactive. The interdependent self is influenced by the external motives and leads to conspicuous luxury behavior. Individual self is affected by internal motives and thus influences individual luxury consumption. Digital self affects the networks of motive and relationships and thereby impacts interactive luxury consumption and behavior.     

An application of two-stage quantile regression to insurance ratemaking

Two-part models based on generalized linear models are widely used in insurance rate-making for predicting the expected loss. This paper explores an alternative method based on quantile regression which provides more information about the loss distribution and can be also used for insurance underwriting. Quantile regression allows estimating the aggregate claim cost quantiles of a policy given a number of covariates. To do so, a first stage is required, which involves fitting a logistic regression to estimate, for every policy, the probability of submitting at least one claim. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a portfolio of car insurance policies. This application shows that the results of the quantile regression are highly dependent on the claim probability estimates. The paper also examines an application of quantile regression to premium safety loading calculation, the so-called Quantile Premium Principle (QPP). We propose a premium calculation based on quantile regression which inherits the good properties of the quantiles. Using the same insurance portfolio data-set, we find that the QPP captures the riskiness of the policies better than the expected value premium principle.     

Income inequality and education revisited: persistence,endogeneity and heterogeneity

This article presents new results on the relationship between income inequality and education expansion – that is, increasing average years of schooling and reducing inequality of schooling. When dynamic panel estimation techniques are used to address issues of persistence and endogeneity, we find a large, positive, statistically significant and stable relationship between inequality of schooling and income inequality, especially in emerging and developing economies and among older-age cohorts. The relationship between income inequality and average years of schooling is positive, consistent with constant or increasing returns to additional years of schooling. While this positive relationship is small and not always statistically significant, we find a statistically significant negative relationship with years of schooling of younger cohorts. Statistical tests indicate that our dynamic estimators are consistent and that our identifying instruments are valid. Policy simulations suggest that education expansion will continue to be inequality reducing. This role will diminish as countries develop, but it could be enhanced through a stronger focus on reducing inequality in the quality of education.     

“双低一代”的社会经济特征研究

由于即将退休与刚退休的这一代人拥有低赡养比与低抚养比，本文称其为“双低一代”。本文基于宏观统计数据与微观调查数据，利用分位回归等方法对“双低一代”的社会学特征与经济学特征进行研究，发现其具有人口总量较多、教育背景优良、社会阅历丰富、消费倾向明显等特征。此外，通过对“双低一代”的人力资本存量进行测算，提出充分发挥“双低一代”余热、缓解老龄化问题的政策建议。     

On the predictability of the distribution of excess returns in currency markets

This paper investigates the predictability of foreign exchange (FX) volatility and liquidity risk factors on returns to the carry trade, an investment strategy that borrows in currencies with low interest rates and invests in currencies with high interest rates. Previous studies have suggested that this predictability could have been spuriously accounted for due to the persistence of the predictors. The analysis uses a predictive quantile regression model developed by Lee (2016) that allows for persistent predictors. We find that predictability changes remarkably across the entire distribution of currency excess returns. Predictability weakens substantially in the left tail once persistence is accounted for, implying a moderate negative predictive relation between FX volatility risk and carry trade returns. By contrast, it becomes stronger in the right tail. Furthermore, we provide evidence that FX volatility risk still dominates liquidity risk after controlling for persistence. These findings suggest that the persistence of the predictors needs to be taken into account when one measures predictability in currency markets. Finally, out-of-sample forecast performance is also presented.     

Disentangling the drivers of renewable energy investments: The role of behavioral factors

The scope of this study is to investigate the main determinants of renewable energy investments in Greece. For this reason, we build an appropriate framework to infer the decision‐making process in the renewable energy sources (RES). The main drivers are then categorized under two groups as economic, and behavioral ones. In the next stage, we rely on binomial (logit and probit) and quantile regression analysis to estimate the impact of these factors on investment decisions towards RES. Our findings indicate that investors who gain better access to knowledge and exhibit a more positive attitude towards the contribution of artificial intelligence (AI) on the RES industry have a higher share of renewables in their portfolio. We argue that these investors are willing to invest a higher amount in the RES industry today. At the same time, quantile regression models illustrate that this relationship is nonmonotonic (i.e., inverted U shaped curve), arguing that positive attitudes towards the contribution of behavioral factors on RES are not adequate to encourage investments after crossing a certain point (threshold). Based on the empirical findings, we argue that the message to policymakers and government officials is to promote a faster penetration of low carbon technologies to achieve sustainable economic and social growth.     

中美玉米期货市场功能效率比较

价格发现与套期保值是期货市场的基本功能,能够反映期货市场的运行效率。通过对比中美贸易摩擦前后期货市场的价格发现和套期保值功能,分析中美玉米期货市场效率间的差距,探究我国玉米期货市场运行效率低的原因。利用格兰杰(Granger)因果分析、协整检验、分位信息份额模型、套期保值比率及绩效分析方法,定量对中美两国2013—2019年玉米期货及现货的数据进行分析,结果表明,中国玉米期货市场存在较强的价格发现功能,但套期保值绩效不佳。使用前沿分位信息份额模型和滚动格兰杰因果法分析中美两国期现货市场动态关系的区别,发现中国仅存期货市场对现货市场的单向引导,而美国在中美贸易摩擦前表现为玉米期现货市场具有相近的引导能力,套期保值效率较高,中美贸易摩擦增强了其现货市场对期货市场的引导能力,降低了期货市场运行效率。从期现货市场双向引导关系视角来看,中国玉米期货市场效率低的原因主要是现货市场的信息不完全、发展不完善,期现货市场缺少长期稳定的双向引导关系抑制了期货市场功能发挥。中国应全面加强期货市场建设,提升期货市场定价效率,推动农产品期货市场快速健康发展。     

How can investors build a better portfolio in small open economies? Evidence from Asia’s Four Little Dragons

This study investigates the role of hedging and portfolio design among stocks, exchange rates, and gold in small open economies (SOEs) from 4 January 2000 to 31 March 2020. We adopt the trivariate dynamic conditional correlation-fractionally integrated asymmetric power ARCH model and unconditional quantile regression model, and our findings show that the hedging role of the U.S. dollar (USD) and gold against stocks differs under regular and extreme market conditions. The USD can act as a powerful hedge asset for stocks in regular market periods. Moreover, during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 outbreak, the safe-haven effect of gold becomes stronger for almost all stocks, whereas the USD can serve as a strong safe haven against stock markets of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore when stock returns are extremely low. In terms of portfolio designing, we find that adding the USD and gold to portfolios improves their hedging effectiveness, and the optimally weighted stock-USD-gold portfolio is the best portfolio strategy, irrespective of referring to return or risk.