Green consumption behavior prediction based on fan-shaped search mechanism fruit fly algorithm optimized neural network

Predicting consumption behavior is very important for adjusting supplier production plans and enterprise marketing activities. Conventional statistical methods are unable to accurately predict green consumption behavior because it is characterized by multivariate nonlinear interactions. The paper proposes an optimized fruit fly algorithm (FOA) and extreme learning machine (ELM) model for consumption behavior prediction. First, to address the problem of uneven search direction of FOA leading to insufficient search ability and low efficiency, the paper proposes a sector search mechanism instead of a random search mechanism to improve the global search ability and convergence speed of FOA. Second, to address the issue that the initial weights and hidden layer bias values of the ELM are randomly generated, which affects the learning efficiency and generalization of the ELM, the paper uses an improved FOA to optimize the weights and bias values of ELM for improving the prediction accuracy. Taking the green vegetable consumption behavior of Beijing residents as an example, the results show the optimization of the initial weight and threshold of ELM by the GA, PSO, FOA, and SFOA, the prediction accuracy of the GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, FOA-ELM, and SFOA-ELM models all surpass those of ELM. Compared with BPNN, GRNN, ELM, GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, and FOA-ELM models, the RMSE value of SFOA-ELM was decreased by 9.45%, 8.40%, 11.89%, 5.84%, 2.22%, and 2.69%, respectively. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the SFOA-ELM model in green consumption behavior prediction and provide new ideas for the accurate prediction of consumption behaviors of other green products with similar characteristics.     

“十四五”时期推进新旧动能转换的思路与策略

“十四五”时期是国际经济秩序重塑的关键期、新一轮科技革命和产业变革由孕育发展向形成高潮的关键过渡期、我国跨过高收入门槛的关键期和改革攻坚的关键时期,也是我国新旧动能接续转换的关键时期。加快新旧动能转换对于促进经济持续稳定健康增长、抢占新一轮科技革命机遇和实现高质量发展等意义重大,是我国转换发展方式、调整经济结构、建设现代化经济体系和实现体制机制转型的重要途径。必须深化对新旧动能转换内涵和特征的认识,厘清思路,明确新旧动能转换重点;深化体制机制改革,激发新旧动能转换活力;培育主体,做优做强一批新旧动能转换领军企业和优质中小企业;加快集群建设,形成一批新旧动能转换高地;创新优化要素支撑,夯实新旧动能转换基础;提升对外开放水平,拓展新旧动能转换空间。     

Probabilistic access forecasting for improved offshore operations

Improving access is a priority in the offshore wind sector, driven by the opportunity to increase revenues, reduce costs, and improve safety at operational wind farms. This paper describes a novel method for producing probabilistic forecasts of safety-critical access conditions during crew transfers. Methods of generating density forecasts of significant wave height and peak wave period are developed and evaluated. It is found that boosted semi-parametric models outperform those estimated via maximum likelihood, as well as a non-parametric approach. Scenario forecasts of sea-state variables are generated and used as inputs to a data-driven vessel motion model, based on telemetry recorded during 700 crew transfers. This enables the production of probabilistic access forecasts of vessel motion during crew transfer up to 5 days ahead. The above methodology is implemented on a case study at a wind farm off the east coast of the UK.     

Time preference and international trade

We first consider a closed model, where households' time discount depends on externality in consumption. We can prove that there is a unique steady state, which is a saddle point. Then we extend the model to a two‐country world, and derive the condition on the effects of consumption externality under which there is a unique free trade steady state with saddle‐point stability.     

东南亚国家社交商务与非本土节日消费行为分析——以中国春节为例

在世界范围内,中国春节越来越受消费者欢迎,特别是东南亚消费者会在社交商务中参加中国春节活动。然而,现实中却存在一个矛盾的现象,即一些东南亚消费者春节期间热衷于购买中国商品,而春节过后却抵制中国商品。实证研究发现,东南亚消费者并未完全从态度上偏好中国春节和中国商品,只是出于社交商务的需要才参与中国春节和购买中国商品。东南亚消费者可区分为文化杂食型和节日身份型两个细分市场。其中,文化杂食型消费者包容并喜欢多元文化,会长期偏好中国节日和中国商品;节日身份型消费者仅在中国节日期间会参与中国节日和购买中国商品。这样的结论对指导中国企业实践具有重要价值,首先,为更好地响应“一带一路”倡议,应树立中国品牌意识,在“一带一路”沿线国家培育偏好中国文化和产品的朋友圈,转变消费者态度;其次,为更好地实施“走出去”战略,应在国际市场进行文化杂食和节日身份的细分,对文化杂食型消费者以文化为纽带培育其长期稳定的消费习惯,对节日身份型消费者通过营销策划刺激其消费;其三,为成功进入东南亚市场,对在东南亚运营的社交商务,应侧重培育消费者亲中国文化与产品的态度,并增加其使用社交商务平台的愉悦感。     

城市基础设施与居民消费水平——基于线上线下协同的促进机制

优化城市基础设施对于提升居民消费水平具有积极意义。交通与通讯两类基础设施对居民线上、线下消费的影响存在差异。在普及网购的同时改善城市居民出行条件，使实体店在展示产品、现场体验等方面与电商形成互补，将有助于实现线上、线下渠道的积极互动。以2011—2016年全国近300个地级市构建的面板数据进行计量分析，验证了基础设施对居民消费的促进作用，并发现当前交通、通讯两类设施的交互作用主要体现为协同效应。进一步的研究表明，以完善基础设施支持线上、线下渠道共同发展，还能够适应居民家庭年龄结构变化的新特点。上述结论说明,以完善基础设施促成渠道协同，将对全面优化消费者体验、提升居民消费水平产生重要作用。     

大学生消费行为调查与分析

大学生是社会消费群体的重要组成部分,他们的消费行为特征受到越来越多人的关注。为了更好地了解大学生的具体消费行为,本文采取问卷调查的方式,以合肥师范学院在校大学生作为调查对象,进一步了解大学生的消费理念、方式以及水平、结构等。最后根据调查结果的数据分析,对大学生理性消费提出具体建议,以引导大学生树立正确的消费观念。     

Do you bear to reject them? The effect of anthropomorphism on empathy and consumer preference for unattractive produce

Consumer generally prefer produce with perfect/attractive appearance and reject unattractive produce (e.g., spotted apples, curved cucumbers), which results in global economic and sustainability issues. Researchers are making efforts to find strategies to reduce consumer or retailer waste of unattractive produce. This article aims to study the role of anthropomorphism communication in the marketing of unattractive produce and to identify an empathy-helping underlying psychological mechanism. Three experimental studies found that when unattractive produce is anthropomorphized, the situation of rejection evokes consumer empathy. Feelings of empathy drive consumers to accept and purchase unattractive produce. In addition, the positive effect of anthropomorphism on purchase intentions is moderated by popularity of unattractive produce (e.g., number of shoppers). The effect of anthropomorphism is strengthened when the produce is unpopular, and it is weakened when the produce is popular.     

Quantifying landscape externalities of renewable energy development: Implications of attribute cut-offs in choice experiments

Renewable energy is worldwide seen as a key element necessary to address climate change. However, finding socially acceptable locations for renewable energy facilities and the accompanying infrastructure increasingly often faces fierce opposition. This paper quantifies the landscape externalities of renewable energies employing a choice experiment. In addition, it is investigated how accounting for non-compensatory choice behavior, i.e. attribute cut-offs, affects welfare measures and subsequently policy recommendations. The empirical application is Germany where we conducted a nationwide survey on the development of renewable energies. We first show that cut-off elicitation questions prior to the choice experiment at least partially influence preferences. We further find that most participants state cut-off levels for attributes. Many are, however, at the same time willing to violate the self-imposed thresholds when choosing among the alternatives. To account for this effect, stated cut-offs are incorporated into a mixed logit model following the soft cut-off approach. Model results indicate substantial taste heterogeneity in preferences and in the use of cutoffs. Also, welfare estimates are substantially affected. We conclude that welfare changes from renewable energy development could be strongly underestimated when cut-offs are ignored.     

How power distance belief,self-construal,and relationship norms impact conspicuous consumption

Building on the idea that luxury products can signal the owner's status to others, this research elucidates how fundamental and pervasive social factors—power distance belief (PDB), self-construal, and relationship norms—dynamically impact consumers' preferences for conspicuous consumption. Through three experiments, we found that (1) high-PDB consumers are more likely to prefer conspicuous consumption compared to low-PDB consumers, and this effect is mediated by their need for status; (2) the relationship between PDB and conspicuous consumption is enhanced under interdependent self-construal, attenuated under independent self-construal, and mediated by consumers' need for status; (3) these effects are moderated by relationship norms, such that the positive effect of PDB on conspicuous consumption under interdependent self-construal is attenuated when communal relationships (vs. exchange relationships) are salient. Our conceptualization and findings contribute to the literature on the dynamics of individuals' status-related behavior in social psychology and related fields, and provide important practical applications for luxury businesses.