Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption

Using a novel data set for the U.S. states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of U.S. consumption since 2007 in the aftermath of the housing bubble. By separating the concepts of deleveraging and debt overhang—a flow and a stock effect—we find that excessive indebtedness exerted a meaningful drag on consumption over and beyond wealth and income effects. The overall effect, however, is modest—‐around one sixth of the slowdown in consumption between 2000–06 and 2007–12—and mostly driven by states with particularly large imbalances in their household sector. This might be indicative of non‐linearities, whereby indebtedness begins to bite only when misalignments from sustainable debt dynamics become excessive.     

Asymmetric effects of housing wealth on college enrolment

We investigate the impact of housing wealth, credit availability and financial distress on college enrolment decisions. We find that housing wealth is negatively related to enrolment in public schools and positively related to enrolment in private schools. This evidence suggests that, on average, students substituted away from private schools towards public institutions during the recent financial crisis.     

Economics of household food waste

Food waste has drawn increasing public attention, and the high levels of estimated waste are largely considered to be a failure of our current food system. Recently, economists have begun to weigh in, showing food waste can emerge as the result of a complex equilibrium affected by consumers’ preferences for convenience; expectations about future food prices and availability; food safety concerns; producers’ costs of holding inventory, transportation, and storage; government regulation; and technology. If food waste is a form of inefficiency, there are either strong economic motivations to reduce waste, or unmeasured costs or preferences affecting waste decisions. If consumers have behavioral biases, suffer from information asymmetries, or do not pay the full cost of their waste, there may be a role for government intervention to reduce waste, but most empirical models in the literature have not articulated or quantified the extent of the deadweight loss from the market failures in relation to food waste. In some cases, waste reduction efforts could harm producers if overall demand for food is reduced or harm consumers if overconsumption is encouraged, quality or safety degrades, or supply disruptions occur. Technological innovations, which lower the cost of storage or extend shelf life have the potential to improve both consumer and producer welfare.     

农地流转市场中的土地流向及效果分析

［目的］我国农地流转市场发展迅速，农村土地呈现集中趋势。准确把握农村土地流动方向，探析农地流转对农业生产效率及农民收入的影响，对保障农地流转市场健康发展，实现农业现代化的关键，具有重要的现实意义。［方法］基于文献研究法对相关研究进行梳理和总结。［结果］（1）有效的农地流转市场使土地从低效率生产者流转至高效率生产者，从高收入农户流转至收入两端的农户，并有提高农业生产效率和增加农民收入的作用。转入户中存在显著的异质性差异，一部分是缺乏资金和人力资本的小规模农户，另一部分则是具有丰富资金和人力资本的大规模农户。（2）农业比较收益劣势易造成农地流转市场扭曲，改变土地流动方向，导致农业生产效率下降，并加剧农民收入的不平等。［结论］有效的农地流转市场有助于提高农业生产效率并增加农户收入。然而，农业较低的比较收益及政府的过度干预易造成农地流转市场扭曲，农业生产效率提升潜力难以发挥，增收效应减弱，农村收入差距加大。建议政府对农地流转进行有序引导，并注重劳动力市场及信贷市场的配套完善。     

Household Debt Overhang and Transmission of Monetary Policy

We investigate how the level of household indebtedness affects the monetary transmission mechanism in the U.S. economy. Using state‐dependent local projection methods, we find that the effects of monetary policy are less powerful during periods of high household debt. In particular, the impact of monetary policy shocks is smaller on GDP, consumption, residential investment, house prices, and household debt during a high‐debt state. We then build a partial equilibrium model of borrower households with financial constraints to rationalize these facts. The model points to the weakening of the home equity loan channel as a possible reason for the decline in monetary policy effectiveness when initial debt levels are high.     

Stakeholder planning of the institutionalization of the volunteer farmer-trainer approach in dairy producer organizations in Kenya: key steps and supporting mechanisms*

The effectiveness of community-based extension approaches has been widely documented, however their sustainability remains weak. Institutionalization has been proposed as a way of achieving sustainability. This paper shares experiences of the learning and planning phase of the institutionalization of the volunteer farmer-trainer (VFT) approach in three dairy producer organizations (POs) in Kenya. The paper builds a detailed understanding of the key steps and social processes involved and the wider lessons that might be learned regarding institutionalization in the context of local institutions such POs. We draw on data from key informant interviews, focus groups discussions and workshops. The first phase of the process which spanned one year involved engagements with stakeholders at different levels; from VFTs, dairy cooperative management, government extension and local NGOs. The process involved awareness creation, joint learning at the individual, group and organization level, a strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis of producer organizations and identifying opportunities for harnessing resources for support functions. We highlight the important supporting social and institutional processes that are required for this to happen. These include getting acceptance and support from key stakeholders, developing a shared understanding, stakeholder ownership of the process, commitment from top leadership of POs and institutional structures to support the process. For the process to be actualized, we discuss mechanisms that need to be put in place.     

家庭结构对农地流转意愿的影响——基于结构方程模型的实证分析

研究目的:分析家庭结构对农民流转土地意愿的影响,并揭示其内部机理的形成,以期为土地流转政策的完善提供参考。研究方法:因子分析法和结构方程模型。研究结果:(1)家庭人口特征、土地使用特征、户主个体特征及家庭决策特征4类外源潜变量会显著影响农地流转意愿;(2)可观测变量对外源潜变量的解释能力较强,其中,家庭总人口、实际经营及流转土地面积、户主年龄、家庭内部矛盾解决方式分别对这4类外源潜变量的解释能力相对较好,即家庭总人口越多、实际经营及流转土地面积越小、户主年龄越大、依赖于内部解决矛盾的家庭更愿意流转农地。研究结论:家庭结构主要通过主动依赖、扶养压力、收入偏好、农地保障、决策信息5种机理对流转意愿产生影响,未来土地流转政策的完善应重视解决这些问题。     

Rural credit and the time allocation of agricultural households: The case of PRONAF in Brazil

This paper evaluates the impact of Brazil's National Program to Strengthen Family Farming (PRONAF) on the time allocation of household members. We use data from the 2014 Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios, and we apply propensity score methods to complex surveys recently recommended in the literature. We find that PRONAF helps to increase focus on agricultural activities, but it also stimulates female partners to engage in unpaid work. The results show significant effects of PRONAF on child labor and on the gender‐specific division of labor within households, although it does not have the usual adverse effects of rural credit programs on school attendance.     

Unfolding Patterns of Unpaid Household Work in Latin America

Although Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay show similar empirical patterns in terms of time women devote to unpaid work, they also present important variations in how unpaid work is distributed between men and women. Using time-use surveys for the 2007–10 period, this study finds a uniform pattern across the four countries regarding the main individual-level variables related to the allocation of unpaid work. When decomposing the gender gap in hours devoted to unpaid work, most of the difference cannot be attributed to variations in observable characteristics of men and women: the unexplained part of the gap is the dominant part. Results suggest that both the strength of traditional gender roles and existing welfare architecture are relevant factors in understanding variations in how unpaid work is distributed between men and women in these four countries. The results reaffirm that powerful interventions are needed to shift gender norms about unpaid work.     

我国生活垃圾焚烧技术现状与趋势

生活垃圾焚烧技术是目前垃圾处理的一种常用方法,在我国得到了广泛的应用。论文介绍了国内生活垃圾焚烧技术的现状和基本情况,提出了技术占比变化的主要原因,并分析了其未来的应用趋势和区域分布。