21世纪“白丁”酸甜报告

21世纪,结婚的人多了,要孩子的人不多了,结婚后不要孩子后来又要孩子的夫妇也多了,在这个充满矛盾和不知所措的时代,丁还是不丁,丁得住还是丁不住,这成了一个世纪的问题,有人预测21世纪是一个会在人口数量上出现巨大波折的世纪,因为社会的进步和潮流的引领会使我们逐渐忘记如何来驾驭与自己朝夕相伴的婚姻、爱情和家庭。     

An Analysis of Trade Patterns and the Effects of the Real Exchange Rate Movements in East Asia

This article investigates the patterns of vertical specialization in trade among China, Japan and Korea, and the effects of real exchange rate fluctuations under a multistage production process. By extending the models of Yi (2003, 2010), we derive two distinct features of vertical specialization and test them using Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) VAR. We find that a positive shock to China’s final good consumption increases the intermediate goods trade between Korea and China, with expanding magnitude over time. In addition, the positive effect of a real exchange rate depreciation on intermediate goods trade is strengthened through the competitiveness-enhancing channel, with this effect being more pronouncing in Korea-China trade than in Korea-Japan trade.     

Content analysis of fake consumer reviews by survey-based text categorization

As the influence of online consumer reviews grows, deceptive reviews are a worsening problem, betraying consumers' trust in reviews by pretending to be authentic and informative. This research identifies factors that can separate deceptive reviews from genuine ones. First, we create a novel means of detection by contrasting authentic versus fake word patterns specific to a given domain (e.g., hotel services). We use a survey on a crowdsourcing platform to obtain both genuine and deceptive reviews of hotels. We learned the word patterns from each category to discriminate genuine reviews from fake ones for positively and negatively evaluated reviews, respectively. We show that our All Terms procedure outperforms current benchmark methods in computational linguistics and marketing. Our extended analysis reveals the factors that determine fake reviews (e.g., a lack of details, present- and future-time orientation, and emotional exaggeration) and the factors influencing people's willingness to write fake reviews (including social media trust, product quality consciousness, deal proneness, hedonic and utilitarian consumption, prosocial behavior, and individualism). We also use our procedure to analyze more than 250,000 real-world hotel reviews to detect fake reviews and identify the hotel and review characteristics influencing review fakery in the industry (e.g., star rating, franchise hotel, hotel size, room price, review timing, and review rating).     

The Importance of an Innovative Product Design on Customer Behavior: Development and Validation of a Scale

The importance of innovative product design (IPD) has increased in recent years because customers' decision‐making factors have changed from product price to product design. However, a definition and measurement of IPD have not been developed adequately. Building on the customer perspective, this study defines IPD and develops its standard measurement with three product design attributes: aesthetics, features, and ergonomics. Results of the empirical test indicate strong evidence for the reliability and validity of the measurement. Overall, this study shows that our measurement captures unique customer perceptions on product innovativeness from the product design. Additionally, theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Vertical alliance portfolios and the business performance of small technology-based firms

This paper discusses how small technology-based firms (STBFs) effectively manage vertical alliances by choosing proper alliance structures to both manage challenges and pursue higher performance. We consider the main challenges of STBFs’ vertical alliances as opportunistic risk and coordination concern between partners, and derive four types of vertical alliance portfolios with different extents of risk and return based on the relational perspective. We then examine the impact of each portfolio on performance and the moderating effect of STBFs’ age and technological capability. The results show the portfolio focusing on bilateral alliances is not helpful for STBFs, while the others are useful. The portfolio focusing on unilateral alliances promises young firms better performance, while hybrid portfolios of unilateral and bilateral alliances are more helpful for older STBFs. In hybrid portfolios, bilateral alliance in the upstream is beneficial to specific technology-focused firms, while bilateral alliance in the downstream is recommended to STBFs whose technology covers a wider range.     

Recovering Risky Technologies Using the Almost Ideal Demand System: An Application to U.S. Banking

We present and estimate a model that shifts the focus of modeling production from the traditional assumptions of profit maximization and cost minimization to a more general assumption of managerial utility maximization that can incorporate risk incentives into the analysis of production and recover value-maximizing technologies. We implement the model using the almost ideal demand system. In addition, we use the model to measure efficiency in a more general way that can incorporate a concern for the market value of firms assets and equity and identify value-maximizing firms. This shift in focus bridges the gap between the risk incentives literature in banking that ignores the microeconomics of production and the production literature that ignores the relationship between production decisions and risk. Our estimation of the model for a sample of U.S. commercial banks illustrates that results obtained from our generalized model can differ significantly from those obtained from the standard profit-maximization model, which ignores risk.     

Do Eco‐friendly VMD and Store Reputation Increase Satisfaction of Retail Customers?

This study builds on previous research to investigate the effect of the benefits of eco‐friendly VMD (visual merchandising) on satisfaction as well as the effect of satisfaction on store attitude. This also testifies the moderating effects how the benefits of eco‐friendly VMD affect customer satisfaction by store reputation. A total of 363 responses were used to examine the process through which core benefits and relational benefits of retailers with eco‐friendly VMD affect psychological satisfaction and social satisfaction. This is a unique study offering empirical evidence that psychological and social satisfactions are the mechanisms through which benefits of eco‐friendly VMD lead to store attitude. Results indicate that information benefit and psychological benefit result in positive psychological satisfaction and social satisfaction, which in turn leads to positive store attitude in retail customers.     

Testing the differences between the determinants of moody's and standard & poor's ratings an application of smooth simulated maximum likelihood estimation

This paper extends previous studies on bond ratings by modeling as a system of equations the determinants of a municipality's decision to obtain a bond rating and the determinants of the municipality's rating for the two major rating agencies. Our model provides a framework to examine formally the differences between the two agencies in the determinants of the ratings. We estimate the four-equation system by smooth simulated maximum likelihood estimation and then construct minimum χ² tests on cross-equation restrictions based on optimal minimum distance estimation. Self-selection is found to be important in Moody's ratings while not in those of S&P. Split ratings appear to reflect differences in both the weight attached to specific determinants of the ratings and differences in the way the bonds are classified.