Dynamic managerial capabilities: Scale development and validation

Studies on dynamic managerial capabilities still have a rather theoretical nature, and there is great difficulty in finding a valid, reliable instrument to measure this construct. The present study contributes to solving this problem: It aims to develop and validate a scale to measure dynamic managerial capabilities. In this investigation, we develop a scale for three factors related to dynamic managerial capabilities: human capital, managerial cognition (already described in the literature), and relationship networks. The prominent finding in this research is the factor that is referred to here as relationship networks.     

New Evidence from Brazil on Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth*

This article presents evidence on the positive effect of international trade on productivity growth using industrial level data preceding and following Brazil's trade liberalization in 1988–90. Our data reveal large and widespread productivity improvement across industries after barriers to trade were drastically reduced. Econometric results confirm the association between trade liberalization and productivity growth and show that the impact was indeed substantial: The observed tariff reduction in the period brought a 6% estimated increase in total factor productivity growth rate and a similar impact on labor productivity.     

我国高额外汇储备的决定机制分析

适度的外汇储备规模对我国的经济发展具有不可替代的作用。首先,对我国外汇储备规模的现状进行分析,从正反两方面阐述了外汇储备的影响作用。其次,基于1995-2014年的年度数据对我国外汇储备的决定机制进行实证分析,以我国外汇储备额为被解释变量,以出口总额、外商直接投资总额、人民币汇率、人民币利率为解释变量建立OLS模型并进行格兰杰因果关系分析,最后进行结果分析并提出对策建议。     

逆周期因子决定了人民币汇率走势吗*

2017年5月26日，中国外汇交易中心人民币兑美元中间价报价机制中引入逆周期因子。本文利用引入新因子以来外汇市场交易数据，通过新的人民币汇率中间价定价机制，测算了逆周期因子数值。在此基础上，本文通过构建VAR模型和EGARCH模型研究了逆周期因子对人民币汇率走势和人民币汇率波动性的影响。研究表明，引入逆周期因子降低了人民币汇率波动性，但对人民币汇率的走势没有显著影响。逆周期因子修正了投资者对汇率变动顺周期性的过度反应，有利于引导市场预期，完善人民币汇率宏观审慎管理。     

Do economic integration agreements affect trade predictability? A group effect analysis

Recent theoretical findings in the trade literature suggest that economic integration agreements (EIAs) not only increase the level of trade but also make it more stable and predictable. This paper proposes a Hausman–Taylor quantile regression approach to identify the causal effect of EIA membership on trade predictability. The proposed methodology accounts for group effects in the gravity equation and is computationally efficient. Our results corroborate the theoretical findings that EIAs make trade more stable and predictable and this conclusion is even stronger for deeper EIAs.     

Supply chain risk analysis: a shipbuilding industry case

A lack of empirical studies on Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) is observed, especially in the industries of large projects. Therefore, this paper conducts a risk analysis on the Brazilian Shipbuilding Industry by generating an initial risk profile. A panel was conducted with executives from major shipyards, and the primary risks were identified, assessed, and evaluated. Findings corroborate the academic literature, reinforcing that companies recognise the importance of SCRM, but the concept is incipient and far from being successfully implemented in real life. Despite the fact that the shipyards identified important risks, the focus was on internal factors. Because the industry was exposed to risks from the external environment, no risk mitigation actions existed, resulting in the bankruptcy of many shipbuilders. This research is an initial step toward investigating SCRM techniques, offering academics a novel empirical approach that can serve as a systematic risk management tool for supply chain planning.     

Antecedents of Purchase Intention in the Online Context

The understanding of the determinant factors of customer purchase intention is necessary, and it is equally important to study the online purchase context, since this context is disseminated among customers. A theoretical model has been elaborated on and tested, considering the constructs of information quality, distrust, and perceived risk as antecedents of purchase intention, and aiming to analyze the relationship among these constructs in the online purchase context. A quantitative research study has been performed by means of the application of a survey. Multivariate statistics techniques have been applied for data analyses, including structural equation modeling. This study contributes to the evolution of the empirically tested concepts by providing a greater individual understanding of each construct presented in the theoretical model, as well as the relationship among them as determinants of purchase intention; the indication is that meaningful relationships were found which may impact greater profitability and, consequently, greater competition for online retailers.     

Brazilian retail banking and the 2008 financial crisis: Were the government-controlled banks that important?

We revisit the interest rate pass-through effect using weekly retail banking data from May 2006 to March 2010. Our choice of data avoids caveats of previous studies concerning excessive data aggregation and the estimation of how fast changes in benchmark interest rates impact those charged on short-term loans in Brazil. Our analysis focuses on four large retail banks – two of them privately owned and run, two of them government-controlled – before and after September 2008. They account for 60% of the total credit supplied by retail banks. Results indicate that government control over two of the largest banks, supposedly an asset for crisis management, may have had higher welfare costs than assumed. We find no evidence of asymmetry in adjustments of retail rates charged by private and government-controlled banks.     

去杠杆背景下企业融资结构对创新效率的影响研究——来自沪深A股上市公司的经验证据

创新能力是推动企业发展和国家进步的关键因素。以创新效率作为衡量创新能力的指标,以2008-2017年我国的沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验了企业融资结构对其创新效率产生的影响。研究发现,内源性融资和股权融资能显著促进企业的创新效率,而债务融资则与企业的创新效率呈显著负相关关系。因此,企业应对融资结构进行优化调整,不断完善自身建设,提高留存收益等内源性融资占比,同时国家应健全股票市场发展,引导企业积极发展股权融资,降低对银行借款等债务融资方式的依赖程度,以进一步降低企业的杠杆率,提高企业的创新效率和自主创新能力。     

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.